From a research report of China National Financial Securities, I found a new generation of fierce general Li Shuyan, with an annualized income of up to 50%, which made me think of Han Chuang in the past.
The title of the research report is “Investment Strategies of Public Equity Funds in the Second Half of 2022 and Top Ten Middle and New Generation Fund Managers: There are still peach blossoms on the water, but the sky will be seen”, interested friends can search for themselves.
Next, let’s talk about why Li Shuyan is so fierce, and the performance is unsustainable? #Old Siji hard core evaluation#
1. The annualized income is nearly 50%, how to do it
Li Shuyan’s representative work is $Cinda Australia Bank Cycle Power Hybrid A(F010963)$ , which has been established for nearly 2 years. As of August 15, the cumulative income since its establishment was 88%, with an annualized rate of 47.55%. This year, the income was 8.88%, the largest Retracement of 24.84%.
As a newcomer who has been in office for less than two years, this benefit is quite impressive!
Where does the income come from? Let’s take a look at Li Shuyan’s top ten stocks in the past. Since it was established in December 2020, we will start reading from the 2021 mid-year report.
In the first half of 2021, the reason why this fund rose sharply was that it entered the energy and chemical industry. Xingfa Group, Hubei Yihua, etc. are all big stocks in phosphorus chemical industry, which contributed a lot to the net value of the fund.
In the second half of 2021, except for Sailun tires, all the other heavy-holding stocks have been replaced. Li Shuyan’s chemical stocks obviously did not take full advantage. I remember that Hubei Yihua was the stock with the largest increase in 2021 at that time, and the annual increase was as high as six or seven times. , a little early to sell. In the second half of the year, he directly switched to cultivated diamonds, such as the Yellow River Whirlwind, Zhongbing Hongjian, etc. In the second half of last year, he realized the opportunities in this industry, and his ability to predict is indeed unusual.
By the mid-year report of 2022, the two sectors with heavy holdings, one is still cultivated diamonds, and the other is the home sector, which contributes significantly to the fund’s income.
Looking at it this way, Li Shuyan is also a typical cyclical player, much like Han Chuang and Jin Zicai.
Finally, look at his investment philosophy, what drives Li Shuyan to become a cycle hunter.
Interview on June 20, 2022: “In investing, you can believe in nothing, but you must believe in cycles. As long as there are people, there are cycles.” According to Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, the key to successful investing is to understand cycles , everything has a cycle.
Cyclical stocks such as steel and coal, which have been neglected for many years, have shined brightly this year and returned to the C position in the market. As a cyclical catcher, Li Shuyan, deputy general manager of Cinda Australia and Asia Fund, believes that a full understanding of the interpretation of macro policies will give you a deeper understanding of cyclical investment . “The Federal Reserve has entered a cycle of raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet, and the change in global liquidity trends has changed market aesthetic preferences. The general trend of tightening global liquidity will suppress market valuations to a certain extent, bringing good investment to cyclical stock investments. Chance.”
Li Shuyan divides cyclical stocks into four categories: one is pro-cyclical sectors, that is, industries that operate with economic cycle fluctuations, such as steel, coal, nonferrous metals, machinery, etc.; industries, such as real estate, infrastructure, building materials, etc.; the third is the independent cyclical sector, that is, industries that are related to the industry’s own cycle and are not affected by the macro economy, such as military industry, breeding, etc.; the fourth is the cyclical growth sector, that is, in emerging industries In terms of direction, it will bring new profit growth points to traditional industries, such as chemical industry and advanced manufacturing. “In different economic cycles and industrial development stages, cyclical stocks contain good investment opportunities. “
Li Shuyan believes that the core of investment is to select good companies from the bottom up, and then make dynamic adjustments to the investment portfolio in combination with the changes in the moderate outlook . In terms of selecting a good company, Li Shuyan mainly conducts in-depth research from the three dimensions of quality, profit growth and valuation based on the company value analysis system (QGV system).
Summary: From the bottom up, the sub-sector industry digs deep to find opportunities to make money. Specializes in midstream manufacturing and cycle-based resource industries. Valuation-based boom rotation, taking into account top-down risk prevention. The industry is biased towards cycles and manufacturing.
Li Shuyan may be the next Han Chuang. The advantage is that his fund size is not large. For example, this fund is 4.7 billion yuan, and Feng Mingyuan jointly manages about 5.7 billion yuan. The total scale is about 10 billion yuan. Han Chuang has 30 billion yuan. .
Risk warning: The opinions mentioned in this article only represent personal opinions, and the subject matter involved is not recommended. Buy and sell according to this at your own risk.
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