This article was originally intended to be written on August 29, but after thinking about it, I still feel that it has been delayed until today, because the votes for energy storage were still high last week, and I also posted a special post on 8.24 to remind some energy storage that has risen two or three times from the bottom. The short-term risk of tickets, I am afraid that after the article was published, some golfers may catch up on the top of the mountain when they see the hot-headed chasing in. However, the energy storage sector has fallen and adjusted a lot in the past few days, so I will post it with confidence, but I still have to remind that energy storage may be one of the hottest tracks in this year and next year, and the middle line is far away. It has n’t peaked , but if the stock can drop a little further, it will be a very good entry point.
Everyone knows that energy storage is a good track. This wave of energy storage has risen sharply, and both performance and concept tickets have risen to the sky. However, only companies that can significantly contribute to future performance and are in an advantageous position in industry competition can their stock prices rise even higher. , go further, and some rubbing concepts may start to fall behind in the next.
For the choice of energy storage companies, I only focus on two points: 1. The competitive landscape of sub-sectors; 2. Gross profit margin
1 [Competitive landscape of segmented industries]
Depending on the value of the energy storage system, cells account for 40-50%, inverters account for 10-15%, and BMS/EMS/thermal management accounts for 15%. From the perspective of the global energy storage supply and demand relationship, batteries are the most lacking, followed by inverters. Some of the battery companies are also used as energy storage systems, such as Paineng Technology and Narada Power Supply, and some of them focus on providing batteries, such as Penghui Energy, Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech. The energy storage inverter companies are basically extended to energy storage systems, such as Sungrow, GoodWe, Deye shares, etc., but Jinlang Technology does not do systems. In addition, the overseas household storage market has exploded, and the energy storage system has gradually evolved into a home appliance. The future application scenarios of micro-inverters are better than ordinary energy storage inverters, and micro-inverters are safer than string inverters. , Hemai Co., Ltd., Yuneng Technology, and Deye Co., Ltd., which took the lead in cutting into the micro-inverse market, have been given a high valuation level by the market.
Therefore, the competitive landscape of energy storage is ranked:
Micro-inverter > inverter and system = main battery and system = main power and energy storage battery supplier > new entrant in energy storage battery
Micro-reversal: Hemai, Yuneng, Deye
Energy storage inverter and system: Sunshine, GoodWe, Jinlang, KSTAR, Kehua
Main batteries or systems: Nandu, Penghui, Paineng
Main power and energy storage battery suppliers: Ningde, Yiwei, Guoxuan
New entrants of energy storage cells: Topbond, Desai, Superstar, Sacred Sun
The best competitive landscape is definitely Micro-Inverse , the global leader Enphase, and the remaining Chinese companies are eroding the share of Europe, North America, and South America, but Sunshine, Jinlang, and GoodWe are also preparing to enter the Micro-Inverse market, and the follow-up competition may be Intensified, but the micro-inverter has just started, the future cake is infinite, and the micro-inverter still has certain technical barriers compared with the energy storage inverter, like the leading Enphase self-developed chip, uses a lot of algorithms. Channels are also a barrier, such as the brand reputation of the first entrants and the establishment of overseas channels. Generally speaking, the competition pattern of micro-inverse is the best.
The worst competitive landscape is the new entrants of energy storage cells . Why is there a shortage of energy storage cells in the world, but they are not optimistic about them? First, it takes about a year to build their production line. Second, and most importantly, lithium carbonate is too expensive, which will seriously suppress their profit margins. The secretary of the board of directors of the Yiwei Zhongbao exchange meeting said that the price of lithium carbonate may remain high in the next year, and it will be difficult to rise or fall. Several power battery factories, Ningde Yiwei Guoxuan, spent a lot of money on the acquisition of lithium mines two years ago. In order to improve the self-supply rate of lithium, and build an integrated supply chain of the four major lithium materials, the power battery factory also acts as an energy storage battery. Compared with the new players who have just entered into the energy storage battery, the future gross profit margin will have the advantage of rolling. . In addition, in terms of technical indicators such as energy density and cycle life of energy storage cells, the gap between these new players and power battery factories is also very large. Of course, in the global household storage battery with relatively low technical requirements, in the face of tight supply and demand, new players can still eat meat, but don’t expect too much profit, and wait for the price of lithium carbonate to drop in the future. , In the field of large energy storage and large batteries with high technical requirements, it is basically difficult for new players to participate.
【Gross profit margin】
Gross profit margins are related to the competitive landscape, sales regions, and energy storage categories.
In 2023, the global household storage demand is 35G, including 23G in Europe and 8-10G in the United States. In 2023, the total demand for energy storage in the United States (household storage, industrial and commercial storage) reached 50-60G, which is similar to that of China. In addition, the household storage market in Japan is also breaking out, and European household storage and large storage will continue to be popular next year. Growing demand will lead to high gross profit.
Micro-inverse has the best competitive landscape, so the gross profit margin is the highest, as high as 40-55%, and the second is the energy storage inverter and system. The gross profit of foreign and domestic companies is very different. The gross profit margin of sales in Europe, America and Japan is 40%+, while that of India, Southeast Asia and China is only 25%. Among them, Germany in Europe pursues brands with the highest gross profit margin, while Britain, Italy and Spain pursue cost-effectiveness, with slightly lower gross profit. In the European market, the inverters of overseas brands sell for 30,000 yuan, and the price is still increasing, while the domestic brands only sell for 10,000 yuan. Therefore, the manufacturers that originally only made domestic inverters have also begun to enter the European and American markets. Short-term inverters The sales price and gross profit margin should be hard to come down. The most in short supply in the European and American markets is energy storage battery cells, and the future gross profit margin should be good, but there are three types of companies, old-fashioned battery factories, power battery factories, and new battery players. Old-fashioned battery factories such as Narada Power, Penghui Energy, Paineng Technology, and power battery factories such as Ningde, Yiwei, and Guoxuan, due to the high self-supply rate of lithium, the perfect supply chain, and the recycling capacity of lithium batteries, the future of energy storage batteries The gross profit may be between 20-30%, while the gross profit of battery cell entrants/new players may be between 10-15%.
In addition, the gross profit will also be related to the category of energy storage. The order of gross profit margin is: household storage > industrial and commercial storage = large storage > communication storage.
The highest gross profit of household storage is because household storage has a ToC business model, and industrial and commercial storage and large energy storage are ToB models. The superimposed EW war has intensified the demand for household storage. For energy storage inverters and systems, foreign and domestic gross profit is very different, which is why Sungrow and KSTAR both choose to do foreign household storage instead of domestic energy storage market. The difference in gross profit between foreign and domestic battery cells will be relatively small, because the price of lithium carbonate is already high, and if the domestic market lowers the price, those new players will basically lose money and make no money. Therefore, for major domestic power grids and energy storage owners , because the profit model of energy storage is still relatively poor, and they can only go to high-margin manufacturers of inverters/systems to reduce prices. In general, household savings are 20% higher than the industrial and commercial quotations, and 15% higher than domestic ones abroad.
So let’s talk about a few major energy storage players one by one
[Hemai Co., Ltd. Yuneng Technology Deye Co., Ltd.]
Hemai and Yuneng started out as micro-inverters, while Deye got into micro-inverters after making energy storage inverters. In terms of gross profit, Hemai’s 50%+ is the highest among them, and Hemai is ready to enter the field of energy storage inverters, while DEYE’s gross profit is 40+. Both energy storage inverter and micro-inverter markets are doing well. The reported performance also exceeded expectations. The micro-inverse of Yuneng Technology ranks only after enphase in the global market, and it is also very powerful. These three companies have their own strengths and their own product technology. The sales areas are all in Europe, America and Brazil, and even this year’s growth rate is about the same. However, in the exchange meeting of Hemai, China Daily said that in Brazil, South America, Yuneng or Deye have already started a price war with Hemai, which may affect the gross profit margin in the future. Now the stock price corresponds to 23 years of performance, and the valuation is also around 40 times. For this hottest energy storage track, 60 times is not high. Of course, the best entry point is to wait for the stock price to pull back deeper, but In the future, if Sunshine and Jinlang enter the micro-inverse market aggressively, they will have to kill a little bit of valuation.
$Hemai (SH688032)$ $Yuneng Technology (SH688348)$ $Germany (SH605117)$
【Sungrow GoodWe Jinlang Technology】
【Costa Kehua Data】
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