There are many interesting phenomena in the stock market. For example, some stocks have a price-earnings ratio of 30 times, while some stocks have a price-earnings ratio of 8 times. Many people can’t help but have a lot of doubts, why the price-earnings ratio of the same two stocks is very different. Mr. mistakes, in fact, many times it is not what everyone thinks.
Today, this article has actually been brewing for a while. I consider myself to be my pinnacle. It is also because of the maturity of these investment theories that I have avoided many mistakes in value traps in the past few years. Some articles are about 2500 words long. , I hope that readers will read it patiently, it is more difficult than reading my code words and thinking, and then enter the dry goods time.
What is the essence of investment? Investment is very simple, but it is often forgotten. The definition of investment is to pay a sum of money today, hoping to recover more money in the future, and at the same time add a discount rate to measure the business of this investment. value.
So when it comes to buying stocks, how does inflation confuse investors. I will give you two real examples next, so that everyone can easily understand the mystery. Before that, let me popularize it for you. Most of our business is somewhere in between these three models.
1. Low input, high output
2. High input and high output
3. High input, low output or no output
I won’t talk about the third type of business today, because this type of business has no value to shareholders. The typical example is the aviation industry. I will focus on the first two types of business models, and look at the long-term impact of inflation on these two types of businesses.
Regarding the first category: low input, high output,
In fact, many investors are not unfamiliar with this term, but most people do not spend much time thinking about it. Today, let us assume that we invest 5 billion to run a business. Suppose you invest in a business like Maotai, and your return on tangible assets is as high as 300%, of which 5 billion is invested in fixed assets. From this business, 13,000 tons of Moutai will be produced, and the ex-factory price is 96.9 billion, which will bring you 25.2 billion in income. The company’s gross profit margin is 91%, of which the three fees account for 6% of the income, and taxes account for 30%, then If you invest 5 billion, it will bring you roughly 15 billion profit a year.
If the price and quantity of the company’s products remain unchanged for 10 years, and the depreciation period is 10 years, assuming that the investor buys the company at 10 times the book value, that is, the bid is 50 billion, then you can easily know the total amount you recover in 10 years. The cash is 155 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 155 billion yuan in investment recovery of 50 billion yuan, and the compound return on investment is 12%.
What does this have to do with inflation? Then let’s think about the second 10 years. After 10 years, the depreciation of assets will be completed. Assuming that the inflation rate is 3%, with the impact of inflation, we have to spend 8 billion to continue to invest in technological transformation. For fixed assets, you must know that Moutai has the right to increase the price. In the past, the annual compound price increase of Moutai was 7%. In 2011, if the ex-factory price of Moutai is 1,600 yuan, and the number of products is still 13,000 tons, it will bring you 416 100 million income, taxes and fees remain unchanged, then if you invest 8 billion, it will bring you roughly 25 billion profits a year.
The same investment of 8 billion to the second 10 years has accumulated a total of 258 billion in cash, and the return on investment is as high as 41%. According to the calculation of 20 years, investors have invested a total of 13 billion and accumulated a cumulative recovery of 413 billion. The price of the company’s sale is not considered here, but it is actually recovered. The money is much higher than that.
Next, look at the second category, high input and high output
Most of our businesses in the real world belong to this type of business, that is, in order to achieve profit growth, it requires constant investment from shareholders. Such enterprises generally have very high fixed assets, and the products produced by the enterprises are all ordinary commodities. Basically, they do not have the right to raise prices. They may be affected by the relationship between supply and demand and have the right to raise prices temporarily. There is no ability to transfer costs to consumers, and I will also give an example below.
Suppose we invest 50 billion to run a business today, such as Shaanxi Coal, a coal company. The return on tangible assets of such a company is usually 30%, of which 50 billion is invested in fixed assets, and 100 million will be produced from this business. A ton of coal, assuming that the ex-factory ton price is 450 yuan, and the cost per ton of coal is 220 yuan, then this business will bring you 40 billion income, of which the three fees account for 6% of the income, and the tax is 10%, then you invest 50 billion, 15 billion in profit.
If the company has the same product sales volume and product price for the same 10 years, and the depreciation period is 10 years, assuming that the investor buys the company at 1 times the book value, that is, the bid is 50 billion, then you can easily know that in 10 years you will The total cash recovered is 200 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 50 billion yuan in investment and 200 billion yuan in return. The return on investment is 15%. It looks very good.
So the question is, what does this have to do with inflation, then let’s think about the second 10 years, after the depreciation of assets is completed, assuming the inflation rate is 3%, with the impact of inflation, we have to spend 80 billion By continuing to invest in fixed assets, it seems that 200 billion has been recovered, but in order to maintain the original sales capacity and maintain the original competitiveness, the company has to invest more money. However, the replacement cost of fixed assets of many enterprises is very high. For example, some high-tech equipment in the chemical industry and an aircraft of an airline often require shareholders to invest several times the amount in order to maintain the original sales capacity over time. Prices have not changed for almost decades, so looking at inflation, the profits of these companies are greatly exaggerated, which is why many companies appear to have low price-earnings ratios on the surface, but in fact the real price-earnings ratios are much higher than the apparent figures.
If you look at the second 10 years in detail, you can understand the mystery, the impact of inflation on such companies. The same investment of 80 billion to the second 10 years has accumulated a total of 230 billion in cash, and the return on investment has been reduced to 11%. According to the calculation of 20 years, investors have invested a total of 130 billion and accumulated a cumulative recovery of 430 billion. The price of the company’s sale is also not considered here. In fact, the reality is that many companies will reduce product prices due to excess production capacity, or be affected by supply and demand, and product prices will fluctuate. other difference.
Investment perception: We found that there are no two companies with the same profit. Due to different business models, over time, those companies with low investment are far better than those with high investment. Such companies usually produce special commodities with the right to raise prices, and they often bring a lot of free cash flow to shareholders. These companies usually repurchase a lot and pay high dividends, and shareholders will naturally continue to benefit in the long run. For high-investment companies, although shareholders can also make money from them, there is always a portion of the profit that is restricted surplus, and the company cannot use it to distribute dividends and buybacks to shareholders. If the company spends the money, the company will face bankruptcy. Risk, here I can’t help but think of my teacher Buffett’s words, time is the friend of a good company, and the enemy of a mediocre company.
And then the best business is one that, in times of inflation, can produce a steady stream of products that themselves have the right to raise prices. These businesses usually rely on intangible assets to make money, and only need a small amount of investment to release a lot of cash flow. If we are lucky enough to buy such businesses at reasonable prices, you can make a lot of money from this business over time. , which is our priority stock to buy.
The dry goods article is a bit long. Everyone thinks that reading this article will benefit me. Welcome to leave a message in the comment area. I generally don’t like to share dry goods articles. Dry goods articles are for those who can appreciate them. Come on, I’m waiting for your feedback.
$Wuliangye(SZ000858)$ $Shaanxi Coal Industry(SH601225)$ $Yili Shares(SH600887)$ @Today’s topic @snowball talent show
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