How is the investment logic of stocks and commodities different?

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LEI & LoneCapital Video Notes:

  1. Stock index futures and gold are mainly driven by emotions, and it is not appropriate to go short.
  2. Industrial products such as crude oil and copper are mainly determined by the fundamental supply and demand relationship, and their prices have ceilings. The soaring prices of industrial products will lead to economic collapse, and the demand for economic collapse will also disappear; if the prices of industrial products remain high for a period of time, new supply will be created, and finally supply will exceed demand, and prices will also fall.
  3. Demand determines the price of industrial products, while supply determines the price of agricultural products. In general, the demand for agricultural products can be estimated, and the development trend of how much grain people need to eat and how much feed animals need to eat is stable. The supply of agricultural products is constrained by climatic conditions, which is unstable and depends on the weather. A natural disaster can lead to a huge reduction in crop yields for a season, or even no harvest. However, if agricultural products miss the season, there is no way to increase production. The arrival of natural disasters will lead to serious supply shortages, and the prices of agricultural products will skyrocket. Natural disasters are unpredictable, so I never touch agricultural products, it is very dangerous.
  4. In short, stocks, gold, and other emotionally driven varieties, try to do as much as possible, and you will make money.

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