| Gypsy 007
[How to view the involution of photovoltaic enterprises]
Tongwei has been planning to make components for a while. Integration is now a more common choice for main material enterprises. The fundamental reason behind it is that the threshold of each link is lowering. Silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells and module barriers have all been torn open one after another.
I heard an expert say before that silicon material belongs to chemical industry, and silicon wafers, cells and components belong to processing and manufacturing industries, and the operation and management methods are very different. Therefore, it is normal for Hesheng Silicon to roll industrial silicon into it, but we can also see that the CNC machine on the machine is also rushing into the silicon material. Whether it is engaged in manufacturing or chemical engineering, we will see if it can be done.
In comparison, silicon materials belong to an oligarchic structure, but the periodicity is stronger than that of other main materials. Not open for three years, open for three years. This year is undoubtedly a highlight moment for silicon materials. What was interesting before was that there was a shortage of silicon materials in the market, but several companies tacitly stopped production for maintenance. The less quantity, the firmer the price and the more profit.
Tongwei is the world’s largest silicon material production capacity, and the world’s largest cell production capacity. Tongwei is a late entrant compared to Aixu in terms of battery chips. Tongwei has a lot of money. After the technology spread, Tongwei’s production capacity soon surpassed that of Aixu and other companies, and took the first place.
A company like JA Solar that matches the production capacity of the main material silicon wafers, cells and modules as much as possible is a typical integrated enterprise. Then Jinko, Trina Solar, and LONGi will all make efforts in integration. One is to stabilize profit fluctuations in a single link. The fundamental reason behind this is that the threshold is lowered.
Personally, I understand that components are the easiest to expand production in the main material segment, and the threshold is the lowest, but it is amazing that this segment has the highest valuation. Some people interpret it as channel advantage. It is of little significance for domestic photovoltaic modules to talk about channel advantages. Whoever uses it cheaply is a large listed company. How to evaluate the role of foreign channels .
After Tongwei’s semi-annual report came out, the announced expansion of silicon material did not mention components, which was a bit disappointing at the time. Winning the bid today means Tongwei is a solid component. Tongwei has great advantages in making modules. It has silicon materials, cells, and directly supporting modules. It is very likely that the top five problems will be solved in the future.
I don’t think Tongwei has any advantages over its competitors in terms of components. The only advantage is that we earn more from silicon materials and have the money to expand production. It’s just that whether you make money in the component sector depends on the degree of involution, it is difficult for Tongwei to make profits independently of the company.
For the inner volume of the main material, my approach is:
1. Choose upstream equipment and consumables , and you can roll them casually, which is still good for me.
2. The valuation of components is too high. After involution, the valuation will be lowered, and some barefooted people can be selected .
3. Selecting differentiated competitors has comparative technical advantages in this link.
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