gist
European and American markets: Continue to promote clean energy transformation, and worry about medium and long-term demand: Europe has a clear goal of energy independence and accelerates energy transformation. The official target of 45-50GW of new photovoltaic installed capacity per year by 2030, the actual amount may be even more. Radical; the United States has returned to the fast track for clean energy development. Under the guidance of the carbon-free power target in 2035, the annual average new photovoltaic installed capacity in the past decade is expected to reach 60GW.
Asia-Pacific and other markets: The demand in traditional markets is stable, and the potential in South America and the Middle East is emerging: Under the guidance of carbon neutrality targets in traditional markets such as Australia and Japan, the average annual new installed capacity is expected to remain stable in the future. The Indian market policy plan is relatively optimistic, and the goal is to achieve a cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity of 300GW by 2030, corresponding to an average annual installed capacity of 25-30GW. Benefiting from the unique geographical conditions such as sufficient sunlight and low land prices in desert areas, the Middle East has great potential for photovoltaic development; South America has shown the advantages of cost-effective photovoltaics, and emerging markets represented by Brazil are developing rapidly.
Global market: The new installed capacity in 2022 may exceed 230GW, and the CAGR from 2021 to 2025 is expected to be close to 30%: In the long run, we believe that the large cost reduction potential of photovoltaic guarantees a broad market space in the long run; in the short term, we estimate In 2022, the world’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 234GW, a year-on-year increase of more than 40%. From 2021 to 2025, the global photovoltaic installed capacity may reach an average of about 295GW, and the compound growth rate is expected to be close to 30%.
Supply game: Trade frictions intensify, and domestic companies have global competitive advantages: Chinese photovoltaic products are supplied to the world. In 2020, my country’s global shipments of silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, and modules will account for more than 70% of the global shipments. Major overseas markets have formed better brand recognition and channel advantages; inverters are rapidly being replaced by global localization, and their shipments have accounted for more than 60%. Therefore, modules and inverters will benefit from global photovoltaic demand. for the better. In addition to imposing tariffs on China’s photovoltaic industry, the United States has recently launched an anti-circumvention investigation on Chinese companies’ photovoltaic production capacity in Southeast Asia; India will increase basic tariffs on global module and cell products from the second quarter of 2022. In the face of trade barriers, Chinese photovoltaic companies have actively responded, and head module companies have further complemented overseas supply chains to ensure global shipment capabilities. At the same time, they are expected to consolidate their overall competitiveness on a global scale through new technology leadership.
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