Investment Points
The construction of a new power system and the green transformation of traditional industries are driven by two-wheel drive, and the green hydrogen market has increased tremendously
Around 2060, the average annual total demand for hydrogen will be about 130 million tons, and the proportion of hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water from renewable energy will exceed 70%, which will become the main body of effective hydrogen supply. The long-term, large-capacity energy storage and peak shaving of the power system with renewable energy as the main power output to the renewable energy hydrogen production industry, superimposing the steel, chemical, cement, transportation and other industries to release large-scale power through the coupling with the green hydrogen industry The potential of hydrogen energy consumption demand will become the two main driving forces for the development of the renewable energy hydrogen production industry in the future.
The increase in installed capacity of renewable energy power generation boosts hydrogen production from renewable energy to occupy the main position of hydrogen energy supply
Combined with my country’s future installed capacity of renewable energy power generation, in 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach 1.2-2 billion kilowatts; in 2060, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach 6.6 billion kilowatts, with 5%-10% allocation. It is estimated that the electrolyzed water hydrogen production device can provide about 5 million tons and 100 million tons of hydrogen in 2030 and 2060, accounting for 77% of the demand for carbon-neutral hydrogen energy, supporting the demand for clean hydrogen supply structure in my country.
Highly flexible, high-power PEM electrolyzer is the development trend of renewable energy hydrogen production
The national plan focuses on the deployment of renewable energy electrolysis of water for hydrogen production and PEM electrolyzer technology research. Improving the conversion efficiency and the scale of single hydrogen production is the main trend of the development of renewable energy hydrogen production devices. Off-grid hydrogen production can effectively improve power utilization efficiency, reduce investment in equipment such as rectification and grid connection, and meet the needs of large-scale development of renewable energy hydrogen production. Its compatibility requirements for renewable energy power fluctuations will further promote PEM water electrolysis. Hydrogen production has become the mainstream development trend of the “green electricity + green hydrogen” production model.
From 2025 to 2035, it is expected to achieve parity between renewable energy hydrogen production and fossil energy hydrogen production, with a slight advantage in PEM cost
At this stage, the hydrogen production cost of AWE has a 27% advantage compared to PEM. The cost of hydrogen production from renewable energy is mainly affected by fixed cost, electricity price and operating time: (1) In 2025, when the electricity price is 0.3 yuan/kWh, the cost of hydrogen production from renewable energy is about 17~25 yuan/kWh under the existing fixed cost. kgH2, there is a certain gap with coal-to-hydrogen + CCS; (2) From 2025 to 2035, when the electricity price drops to 0.2 yuan/kWh, the cost of renewable energy hydrogen production begins to drop to 15 yuan/kgH2, which is expected to achieve coal-to-hydrogen + CCS parity; (3) After 2035, when the cost of electricity price falls below 0.13 yuan/kWh, the cost of hydrogen production from renewable energy has a certain competitive advantage compared with coal-to-hydrogen + CCS; (4) In 2050, PEM hydrogen production The fixed cost of the system has a cost reduction range of at least 75%. Under the expected electricity price of 0.1 yuan/kWh, the cost of PEM hydrogen production reaches 6-9 yuan/kgH2, which is comparable to fossil energy hydrogen production (excluding CCS) or has a certain cost advantage , compared with AWE hydrogen production, it has a slight advantage.
To view the full report click here
Note: Unless it is marked as original, it is all submitted by netizens or institutions for sharing. If you need to publish, please contact [email protected].
This article is reproduced from: https://www.dx2025.com/archives/173339.html
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.