After reading the financial report, just chat a few words.
Speaking of which, the issues facing Intel (INTC) are less complicated.
Looking at the processor business alone, there are mainly three pieces: desktops, notebooks, and servers (workstations can be counted in it).
At present, the Intel 7 process used by the 13th generation Core Duo, if the transistor density is 100, the N5 (that is, the process used by ZEN4 ) of TSMC is about 150. For the same size chip, the density of Intel is only one-third of the opponent’s. two.
Since the density is so much lower than others, there must be some trade-offs. Intel chose the desktop and performance (frequency) direction, sacrificing power consumption and core count. In fact, that is not called sacrifice. Under the existing conditions, whoever changes can only choose this way.
Using two-thirds of the process density of others to achieve performance comparable to or even slightly surpassed by ZEN4, the design team of the 13th-generation Core can already add chicken legs, and it really can’t ask for more.
For the desktop, at least the next two years (before the mass production of ZEN5) will basically be fine. In the life cycle of ZEN4, not only the 13th generation Core, but also the 14th/15th generation products will be played. The offensive and defensive postures have basically been exchanged. .
The problem of notebooks is more complicated. In Intel’s roadmap, Intel 4/3 is the one that can compete with N5 in terms of density. If it is mass-produced and launched on the mobile terminal, it is pessimistically estimated that it will be this time next year? In other words, if you want to achieve a desktop-like offensive and defensive reversal, it will take at least one year. Before that, the share may still be in a state of continuous loss. There is no good way to do this for the time being.
As for the server, including high-end workstations, um… wipe my tears first, I don’t know what to say. I understand everything.
In any case, in the notebook and server market, the root cause of hip pulling is still the process issue. Compared with desktops, the notebook and server markets are more sensitive to the manufacturing process. In the next two to three years, if the manufacturing process can be turned over, the notebook market will most likely be reversed, and the server market can at least stop the trend of loss; if there is a delay in the iteration of the manufacturing process, Then the situation of desktop attack, notebook and server defense is difficult to completely change.
In addition, whether the foundry service can open up the situation, at the root, also depends on how far the process can progress. It’s not unbelievable to have Nvidia, Apple or even $AMD (AMD)$ come to the foundry, the premise is that you really have to be able to achieve a level comparable to TSMC, everyone is doing business, the price is right, everything is Good to say.
To surpass the competition in 2025 is actually to mass-produce the 18A in 2025, which is the same thing.
Looking at this quarter’s financial report, despite the decline in revenue and gross profit, research and development expenses are still rising. Comrade Kissinger is planning to risk his life.
The problem of gross profit margin should be difficult to improve in the next two years. The reason is very simple. If you speed up the process iteration, it means that the cycle of amortization of fixed assets is shortened, and the gross profit rate cannot be too good. By the same token, it will be difficult to see further reductions in capital expenditures. If you want to overtake at high speed, you can only endure higher fuel consumption. There is no reason in the world for horses to run fast and not to graze.
Therefore, buying Intel can now be regarded as a kind of venture capital: if you believe that it can get 20A in 2024 and mass-produce 18A in 2025, the current price is really not expensive; Delay, that’s over, the darkest moment is probably still to come.
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