Issue 75: ① Dialogue with Economist Gu Chaoming: A generation has experienced recession, a generation has regained confidence ② The road to infinity ③ What kind of person is Nassim Taleb, the author of “Black Swan”? What is its depth and wisdom? – Zhihu ④ Middle-aged Beijing under the flu

Original link: https://pinfive.today/@skyue/75/

2022.07.22 (issue 75)

Dialogue with Economist Gu Chaoming: A generation has experienced recession, and a generation has regained confidence

Source: mp.weixin.qq.com

This passage is simple enough: “Assets and liabilities are initially balanced to a certain extent. With the bursting of the bubble, assets worth 10 billion yen on the original balance sheet are only worth 1 billion yuan, and 67 billion yuan of liabilities can be repaid. There. In Japan, everyone was busy paying off debts, or putting money in the bank. No one was spending, no one was borrowing to invest, and the economy started shrinking rapidly.”

Also, lost confidence is not easy to get back.

road to infinity

Source: mp.weixin.qq.com

Wonderful

Who is Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan? What is its depth and wisdom? – Know almost

Source: www.zhihu.com

Via Negativa, I understand it as reverse thinking. In essence, few people think like this. What everyone sees is not an opportunity.

Beijing middle-aged under the flu

Source: mp.weixin.qq.com

2018 old article, society as a whole is thriving, but individuals are still vulnerable.

Buffett sticks to BYD’s profit nearly 25 times for 12 years, but another stock loses tens of billions of dollars in a year jqknews

Source: ishare.ifeng.com

When I see someone using Buffett as an example, I always feel that Buffett’s investment logic, especially the long holding time, is not very maneuverable for Xiaosan, and it is entirely possible to step on the thunder and lose more and more time. In fact, BYD and Coca-Cola also have survivor bias. So I found the above news.

No matter the value analysis or the technical analysis, they are all making predictions about the future, neither of which is higher or lower.

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