“Made in China” is Zhou Meisen’s book. At that time, I was still working in the system. Everyone knew Wang Yuewen’s novel very well. The first thing you ask when you meet each other is, “Are you busy recently?” This is a decent way to compliment each other. How can you be busy?
1. Romantic Gambling
As I said, my investment style is a romantic gamble. Based on one’s own knowledge, experience, and secondary market situation, deduction is conducted without the basis of detailed data. Then choose the sub-industry with the most room for imagination under the current situation and the most advantageous sub-industry, select the company with high cost performance among them, and intervene with full positions.
Why is it romanticism? Because I graduated from science and engineering, but I like social, economic, cultural, historical and philosophical subjects. I imagine wildly in the logic of investment, and then draw some conclusions that I don’t know whether they are reliable, and then deduce them accordingly. Therefore, I want the stock price to rise less, the valuation is lower, and there is a certain margin of safety to avoid risks. Research is more top-down, with company analysis taking a backseat.
Zhao Xiaoguang, Wang Guobin, etc. have said that capable companies, lucky industries, and reasonable valuations are good investments. I very much agree. Of course, for me, these three are the lucky industry first, and then find a capable company, and then wait for a reasonable valuation to intervene.
2. Made in China
People often ask what the mainstream sector will be in 2023. I think that the market will generally rise 3-4 months before the market starts, and a good rise during this period may not necessarily be the mainstream sector in the later period. At that time, the mainstream sector was unclear and could not be read from the market.
In the 221222 article “2023 A-Share Outlook – Around Policies and New Technologies”, next year’s industry will increase auto parts. The first category is low valuation. Class two is from 0 to 1. New technology breakthroughs reduce costs and achieve economies of scale. Domestic substitution, from domestic to global market. Semiconductors have both class one and class two. 1. Policy support and recovery consumption, real estate, semiconductors, and the Internet. Second, the growth category. New materials, high-end equipment , auto parts.
Recently, after listening to nearly 600 episodes of “Dajiang Dahe”, some ideas are clearer.
The possible mainstream sector in 2023 is made in China, and the process of high-end manufacturing going global.
Mr. Sun said, “The general trend of the world is vast, and those who follow it will prosper, and those who go against it will perish.”
Without World War I and World War II, the rise of Lao America is inevitable, but time is only accelerating. In the future, our country will become the core in the economy, industry, stock market and other aspects.
Of course, the development of neighboring countries such as India and Vietnam is also inevitable. It is also natural for some manufacturing industries to shift from my country to turnover.
I used to look at US stocks and external markets every morning when I got up. Since May 22, I have gradually faded away, and now I basically don’t have this habit. Because A shares have been relatively independent. In 2011, sometimes I woke up in the middle of the night to look at the external market.
3. Which industries are involved in high-end manufacturing
The great development of the automobile industry and aerospace industry will inevitably drive the upgrading and technological innovation of related domestic industries. This is the historical law of Japan, the United States, and Europe. CNC machine tools and robots can be said to be completely related. Robots superimpose population factors.
R&D is a first-mover advantage, which ultimately needs to be transformed into a cost advantage. So when it comes to industrialization and scale, our capabilities are leading.
1. Industrial master machine, CNC machine tool.
The industry’s leading stocks of CNC machine tools have reached a record high, but the performance of the four seasons reported a decline from the previous month. What to watch in the future is mainly domestic substitution, growth in exports to countries such as Russia and India, and equipment investment supported by policies.
The labor force population is declining, wages continue to rise, and industrial robots are replaced by domestic products. Collaborative robots are growing rapidly, and service robots are expected to be high in the future.
3. Auto parts
In the automobile industry, my country has changed from a big consumer country to a big manufacturing country, and the strength of new energy vehicles is leading. Auto parts have changed from domestic substitution to going abroad.
These are all my imagination. If you are interested, you can find logic and data to discuss. As an investor, I will make adjustments based on the trend of the stock market.
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