my loss review

#我的private investment experience# The market this year is too magical. When it falls, I doubt life, and when it rises, I am afraid that my dream will suddenly wake up. [苦涩] In fact, the draft of this post has been written a long time ago. Most of them are some insights that came to mind when they fell. I wanted to summarize more. Since Snowball has activities, let’s see if we can rely on the manuscript fee to pay back the book. The lesson is too profound. After all, I lost 200w at most, so I wrote a lot (every word [苦涩] ), we will see.

To respect economic laws, 10 years of slow cattle is unrealistic

Many people (including myself) entered the market during the bull market, when many investment advisors and fund managers were bragging about a 10-year slow bull. I remember that at that time, I looked at the official account of the screw and felt that he was so conservative, the market was so good, he was still waiting, and the opportunity was gone. Later, when I lost money, I realized that everything is a cycle, so now I don’t respect economic laws, and I will be cautious if I overemphasize my strategy or stock selection ability.

Take Profit

Since the law of the market is that there is a rise and a fall, if 3000 points is the fate of the big A, it may be a wise approach to stop the profit in time. Holding this kind of thing long term is probably only for ld’s friends. I remember reading a book called “Interpretation Fund”. The author is also an old Christian. The first edition was released in 2007, and the second edition is in 2020. In the preface to the second edition, the author wrote that he was also a long-termist before. , now the caveat to investors is to redeem the fund if the market is going crazy. The problem is we don’t know when to redeem? Everyone has their own standards. I remember when I chatted with @Expand Investment , the boss suggested that the fund could be redeemed if it doubled. I really hope to see that day [笑哭]

always on the field

It’s hard to get off, and it’s hard to get on. Sometimes I get off the train because of take profit or stop loss, and when the market picks up, I can’t tell whether it is a reversal or a reversal, and I don’t dare to get on the train. So if you can’t judge, stepping short is sometimes more uncomfortable than losing money, so it may be a good choice to keep a certain position forever. If the fund is doubled, the profit can be redeemed, and the remaining principal will remain on the market, and the loss will not be a negative return. Of course, the premise is doubled [捂脸]

Don’t go to crowded places

This may be a paradox for a small business like us to choose private equity, because the information we get is always lagging behind, and we will know when a private equity performance explodes and the channel is pushed hard. After everyone rushes to buy it, it is likely that the performance will decline due to the large scale or the switching of the market style. My current thinking is that I can observe and observe more. If he is not capable, he can only make this wave of money. If he is really capable, he will come out and release products next year, and it will not be too late to buy it. I think that the best private equity list selected by a certain tripartite wealth this year may be 90% different from previous years.

lower expectations

I entered the market in September 2020. If the performance does not double in 2019/20, I would be embarrassed to say hello to people. But this really isn’t the norm. In the long run, the annualization rate of 15% is already very good, and this long-term annualization rate of 15% is not an annual average. In many cases, it may be very mediocre or even bleak. It depends on the outbreak of the big bull market.

Don’t overestimate your tolerance for pullbacks

Everyone does a risk assessment test before they buy a fund, but I’d say it’s bullshit. When my wife first bought private equity, she said she didn’t care about losing 20%. I remember that the first time we experienced a sharp retracement was after the Spring Festival in 2001. We lost 50w in the first week. At that time, the whole person was stunned, and then it continued to fall for a month and a half. In fact, we did not lose our principal in the end. , but the mood is very bad, at least it’s definitely not a loss of 20% and I don’t care.

The second time I experienced a sharp retracement was at the beginning of 2022. The retracement time was much longer than that in 21 years, and I lost a lot of principal. To be honest, my mood was much calmer than the first time, but it was definitely not pleasant.

must be configured

Continuing the above topic, this comes to the problem of configuration. Without timing, configuration may be the only way to reduce volatility. I have written two posts on allocation, 2022 allocation plan , talking about diversification of investment , although I have not followed the plan, but the current thinking has not changed, and the future will most likely be allocated according to the original plan.

Of course, reducing volatility and increasing fixed income or neutral strategies will likely reduce long-term returns, so it is also important to reduce expectations. In addition, I always feel that reducing volatility will make it easier for investors to hold the product and not reduce their positions at a low price, so in the long run, the advantages must outweigh the disadvantages.

Little dark horse is not good value for money

It should be undisputed that scale affects performance, so many investors hope to find explosive little dark horse private placements. I was addicted to this for a while myself, but then found some problems:

First, there are too many little dark horses. Although it is difficult to make an excess of tens of billions of big white horse private equity, it wins in stability, and there are not many that can become tens of billions. There are too many little dark horses, and it is difficult for ordinary investors to have the energy to screen them one by one.

Second, there is a problem with the sustainability of the little dark horse’s performance. The good performance in the past one or two years may only be because the strategy matches the current market style, and the long-term performance is difficult to say. Unless there is a company that has been established for a long time, has excellent performance, and is restrained in scale, even if such a company is found, it will not be open due to restraint in scale.

Third, the little black horse will soon become the big white horse. In fact, individual investors pay attention to the little dark horse, and the channels also pay attention. Moreover, individual investors have limited energy. When we found out that they were all pushed by channels, the scale quickly increased. Maybe you haven’t been able to enjoy small and beautiful, he has become a mediocre white horse.

My current thinking is still configuration, for example, 70% of the big white horse + 30% of the small dark horse. Anyway, my expectations are not high now, and there is no need to put most of my energy on the 30% configuration.

Investing is lonely

Many people may have firm beliefs before investing. For example, they believe in the fortune of the country, believe in long-termism, and feel that they can withstand fluctuations. But most of the time investing is not a matter of one person, but a matter of a family. When losing money, you may be able to withstand the pressure of loss, but not the pressure of your family. Even if Buffett says you are right, you may not be able to withstand the opposition of your family. So I suggest that you think about this, especially when investing in the equity market.

long money long investment

The money invested in equity funds should not be used for at least three years, otherwise you can buy some fixed income products. What I regret more is the redemption of a US dollar fund this year, which lost about 10% (now I can’t see the redemption loss is more). Of course the poor performance is the main reason I redeem it, the secondary reason is that my dollars are used for other purposes. In fact, I don’t regret the redemption, but I shouldn’t have bought it from the beginning. I knew at the time that the money could only be put in the stock fund for one year, so if I knew it was short money, I would definitely not invest in the stock fund in the future. .

Can’t understand vs don’t approve

Listening to the road show, there is a problem that bothers me, that is, different fund managers have different opinions. For example, for the same sector, some are optimistic and some are not optimistic. It seems to be reasonable, as an investor, it is difficult select. Even though I don’t agree with some opinions, but looking at their glamorous background at least in Qingbei’s reunion, and then looking at their two graduation certificates, I always wonder if I am wrong. But my current point of view is to distinguish between incomprehensible and disapproved.

Many problems are beyond the cognition of ordinary investors. After all, we are not like scholars. We know the new energy of chips and the cycle of liquor pigs. Many things are beyond my cognition. I can’t judge who is right and who is wrong. For example, at the beginning of the year, many fund managers were optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, but some were not optimistic. Zhou Weifeng of Yuanxin believes that due to the influence of ZC, the Internet of Hong Kong stocks cannot return to the past, and other major sectors of Hong Kong stocks, such as banking and real estate, are also traditional industries with limited growth; but Wu Weizhi of CEIBS Borui believes that any market has cycles, and Hong Kong stocks At a low level at that time, there is a high probability of a bull market. There are many such examples. For example, those who are firmly optimistic about new energy, but also think that the general direction of new energy is right, but there are too many uncertainties in technological change. For me, I think both sides are reasonable. When there is no way to judge right or wrong, I personally tend to soak it in the rain and dew from the perspective of configuration.

But there are also some situations that I don’t recognize. For me, there are mainly two situations:

The first is that the values ​​are different. Investing is betting on the fortunes of the country, but if the values ​​are different, no matter how good the performance is, I will not buy it. For example, if some private life is confusing, or the reputation in the circle is not good, I think I have to stay away.

The second is that I just came across my major. I work on the Internet myself, and I know a little about the Internet going overseas. I have heard that a well-known fund manager is optimistic about the Internet going overseas. Based on my experience, I really can’t do this. Agreed, I wouldn’t buy this either.

To sum up, those who don’t understand can be distributed and configured, those who don’t agree can’t be bought, and it’s not a pity to miss some money.

Why can’t I copy the bottom line?

In fact, I also copied the bottom, but every time I copied it halfway up the mountain, why can’t we be as accurate as Duan Yongping’s 300 yuan copy of Tencent? There are several reasons for personal reflection:

First of all, Duan Yongping did not directly copy to the bottom, but he also gradually copied the bottom;

Second, in fact, many fund managers operate in the same way as ours, and they are also halfway up the mountain, and Xiaofeng’s Hong Kong stocks are also halfway up the mountain. Dan Yi also said that he was too early to buy the bottom;

Finally, why did you not dare to increase your positions when you reached the real bottom? I think the most important thing is that I have never earned this kind of money, so I am not calm enough. Every time I copied it halfway up the mountain and added an overall loss, even if I thought it was at the bottom, I would be discouraged.

Losing money can be a good thing

Put this at the end as a summary. I remember @Boyan2020 said that it is a good thing to lose money earlier, and I agree with it now. Although I haven’t made money yet, I can only comfort myself with this idea now, but I don’t have the experience of losing money and I don’t have so much insight. [捂脸]

@snowball private placement

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