Pinduoduo and investors play numbers game; ​Shopee turmoil

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Pinduoduo and investors play a numbers game

A group of Pinduoduo “creditors” are now faced with a choice: whether to let Pinduoduo repurchase the convertible bonds in their hands, or to hold them to maturity and convert them to shares for larger gains.

On September 2 and September 19, Pinduoduo twice notified investors who subscribed for its 0% interest rate convertible bonds in 2019 in the form of announcements. At any time at 5 pm on the 29th, Pinduoduo was asked to repurchase the bonds. Pinduoduo will honor eligible investors’ repurchase funds on October 3.

Pinduoduo would owe about $226 million in bond principal as of Sept. 1 if investors asked Pinduoduo to repurchase in full. Because it is a 0% bond, there is no periodic interest attached. For every $1,000 of bonds, 23.468 shares of Pinduoduo ADS can be converted, and the corresponding conversion price is about $42.61.

  • Note: Pinduoduo closed at $65.79 on September 19, a 54% premium to the conversion price
  • The share price at the time of the bond issue on September 27, 2019 was $31.28, a 26% discount to the conversion price
  • This repurchase is one of the rights agreed between Pinduoduo and investors

The potential repurchase scale of 226 million US dollars is no pressure for Pinduoduo, which has a cash reserve of nearly 100 billion yuan. Moreover, for the management of Pinduoduo, who value the “efficiency” of operations above everything else, a low stock price is better than a high stock price.

According to the terms of the convertible bond issuance three years ago, Pinduoduo can also redeem all or part of the convertible bond when the stock price reaches at least 130% ($55.39) of the effective conversion price of the convertible bond.

Investors can choose to let Pinduoduo buy back and take away more than 30% of the income that is still objective. But considering that the Pinduoduo convertible bond is the first zero-yield China concept stock convertible bond since 2004 – Alibaba, whose fundamentals are much more stable, issued bonds with a coupon of 2.8%-3.4% in 2017 – deduct these After the “opportunity cost”, the yield does not necessarily outperform the broader market.

Or continue to hold and bet on Pinduoduo’s US cross-border e-commerce business Temu, and wait until 2024 to make a decision. We know that Temu will not be online for the time being, and the budget for September may reach 1 billion yuan . SHEIN, which it wants to emulate, has decided to expand its investment in the United States and build three distribution centers.

  • Note: Since September 27, 2019, the Nasdaq index has increased by 47.36%, while Alibaba has decreased by 50.61% during the same period.
  • The three major rating agencies currently do not have Pinduoduo credit ratings. (Gong Fangyi)

Shopee turmoil

From a model of globalization that Chinese Internet companies are flocking to, to a negative case of aggressive expansion of overseas companies, Shopee only took a year and a half. During the period, the market value of the parent company Sea (Donghai Group) fell from more than 200 billion US dollars to 33.5 billion US dollars.

Market sources said that on Monday (September 19), Shopee held an all-hands meeting, announcing that it would make team adjustments and cut some positions. The specific layoff plan was not disclosed at the meeting. According to news on social media, after the meeting, there will be Employees received layoff notices, and layoffs in some business lines were as high as 60%.

Last year, 60% of Shopee’s revenue came from Southeast Asia, 18% from Latin America, and 14% from other Asian regions. The organization size of the three major regions has shrunk to varying degrees this year. Among them, the offices in Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam have been adjusted to a large extent, the offices in France and Spain are closed, and the operations in Mexico, Argentina, and Chile are about to be closed.

After doubling its revenue for two consecutive years, Shopee failed to continue its growth miracle. The lifting of the epidemic control has made consumers no longer rely on online shopping. Shopee’s revenue growth has slowed down significantly. In the second quarter, revenue and GMV (transaction value) increased by 51% and 27% year-on-year, both lower than expected.

The parent company Sea also withdrew Shopee’s revenue guidance for this year after the earnings report, and management has repeatedly mentioned in the earnings conference call that it “will focus more on profitability.”

  • The founder Li Xiaodong mentioned the goal of “self-sufficiency” in the previous open letter. Shopee, which has been losing money for five consecutive years and relying on the blood transfusion of game business cash flow, had to put down the expansion speed;
  • This year, Shopee’s layoffs in multiple markets are mainly concentrated in non-core businesses such as ShopeeFood and ShopeePay.

In the second quarter of this year, Shopee lost US$648 million after deducting interest, depreciation and amortization, an increase of 10% compared with the same period last year, dragging down the loss of parent company Sea to continue to expand. Under profit pressure, Sea, the parent company of Shopee, announced last week that it would stop paying executive salaries and cut employee benefits. (intern Xue Yujie)

Is Porsche a luxury car?

Porsche plans to list its 12.5 percent stake in Frankfurt on Sept. 29 at a valuation of up to 75 billion euros in what will be one of the largest IPOs in Europe. In this partial IPO, Volkswagen’s main shareholder, the Borscher-Piëch family (the family behind Porsche Holding and the actual controlling family of the Volkswagen Group) will buy another 12.5% ​​of Porsche’s voting shares.

For the current valuation range, one of the perceptions in the market is that Porsche could have gotten a higher valuation that was more in line with the luxury car positioning. After all, it makes and sells luxury sports cars and has the richest customer base in the world, but Lowering the product price range to the product strategy of traditional luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi has lowered its valuation to a certain extent.

In 2021, Porsche’s best-selling model in the world, the Macan, will account for more than a quarter of the total deliveries, and the price guide for the entry-level model when it was first launched in China was “only” 558,000 yuan. Auto analysts at Jefferies have said that the key to positioning a brand as luxury is “how much you need to pay to get it”, and it’s clear that Porsche has a lower threshold.

Porsche’s profit margins are also not in line with the popular imagination of luxury goods. It has said that the target medium-term profit margin is between 17% and 19%, and the long-term target is more than 20%, which is a far cry from Ferrari’s 25% profit margin in 2021. And Ferrari has said it hopes to increase profit margins again within a decade.

In 2012, Volkswagen bought Porsche cars from the Piëch family, who, after losing control of Porsche AG (Porsche AG) for ten years, will get 25% of Porsche’s voting rights when it goes public. This IPO may It will reignite the dispute between the Porsche family and the Piech family. Investors involved in Porsche’s listing said that because of the complexity of Porsche car ownership and management, Porsche’s valuation will be discounted by 30% to 40%. (intern Xue Yujie)

MAS chief warns of four major risks to global economy

On September 20, Ravi Menon, Governor of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said that the global economy faces four major risks – the severity of the recession, the medium-term inflation trajectory, the impact of geopolitics on markets, and climate risks on investment. combined effect.

The key question is the depth and duration of the recession. He said medium-term inflation is likely to remain elevated for an extended period of time, with both high levels and duration leaving central banks with little choice but to tighten monetary policy. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has tightened monetary policy four times in the past year and is expected to tighten again next month.

On September 8, Fed Chairman Powell publicly stated that the Fed will insist on raising interest rates until it successfully fights inflation. And firmly stated that “the Fed needs to take direct and strong action on inflation.” Powell has no longer actively mentioned the so-called soft landing of successfully avoiding recession when fighting inflation, but has positioned reducing high inflation as the task that the Fed must do.

In August this year, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose by 8.3% year-on-year, and the market’s expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates in September rose. The Fed has raised rates three times this year, and Goldman Sachs expects another 75 basis point hike later this week.

In addition to the Fed, major European central banks have also raised interest rates to fight inflation. In August this year, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points and raised the benchmark interest rate to 1.75%. According to the latest research report of the World Bank, as many central banks have raised interest rates to deal with inflation, the world may be heading for a global economic recession, and global GDP growth will slow to 0.5% in 2023. (Intern Zeng Xing)


The first-day sales of the iPhone 14 Pro were several times that of the 13 Pro when it first launched.

According to the first-day sales data obtained by “late point finance”:

  • iPhone 14 loses to iPhone 13;
  • The 14 Pro far surpasses the 13 Pro;
  • The 14 Pro Max sold similarly to the 14 Pro.

Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that due to the strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro, Apple has asked Hon Hai to switch the production line of the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 14 Pro model, which is equivalent to increasing the shipments of the iPhone 14 Pro in the fourth quarter by about 10%. .

​Over 60 million people watched Li Jiaqi’s rebroadcast.

At 7 p.m. on September 20, Li Jiaqi’s Taobao live broadcast room was launched.

  • The live broadcast that night was not announced on Weibo, WeChat public accounts and other platforms.
  • Disconnected twice during this period.
  • The Taobao homepage and Taobao Live homepage do not display Li Jiaqi’s live room. You need to click on the Taobao Live homepage to search for Li Jiaqi’s live broadcast room.
  • 26 products were put on the shelves for the first rebroadcast, and the brands participating in the rebroadcast included L’Oreal, Anta, etc. At the end of the broadcast, 8 products showed “off the shelf”.
  • The background of Li Jiaqi’s live broadcast room has the slogan “Rational consumption and happy shopping”. He repeatedly emphasized in the live broadcast room that he hoped everyone to consume rationally and shop happily.
  • At the end of the live broadcast, the number of views reached 61.16 million.
  • Note: On the first day of the 618 pre-sale this year, Li Jiaqi’s Taobao live broadcast room had 150 million viewers, and the average number of viewers in the live broadcast room in the previous week was 27.27 million.

Tesla has completed the capacity expansion of its Shanghai factory, and the annual output may exceed 1 million vehicles.

The media reported that Tesla has completed the capacity expansion of the Shanghai Gigafactory and will continue to upgrade and test the production line. This optimization is Tesla’s expansion in the existing factory, mainly by increasing the production cycle to expand production capacity. The second-quarter financial report shows that the annual production capacity of the Shanghai Gigafactory has exceeded 750,000 vehicles, and the annual output after this upgrade may exceed 1 million vehicles.

Beijing recorded no new local confirmed cases and local asymptomatic infections for 4 consecutive days.

  • On September 19, there were 104 new local confirmed cases, including 41 in Guizhou, 33 in Sichuan, and 16 in Tibet; 525 new local asymptomatic infections, including 208 in Guizhou, 160 in Tibet, and 44 in Heilongjiang.
  • Guizhou added local “41+208”, of which Guiyang added “17+111”.
  • Guiyang City will gradually resume taxis and online car-hailing from the 20th.
  • Sichuan added local “33+37” yesterday.
  • Neijiang City announced that those who have not been tested for nucleic acid since the “9.08” epidemic will be quarantined at their own expense for 7 days.
  • On the 20th, Lhasa City announced that it will gradually “orderly restore the order of production and life.”
  • There have been no new local confirmed cases and local asymptomatic infections in Beijing for 4 consecutive days, and high-risk areas have been cleared.

Tencent plans to invest 291 million yuan in Xunjie Medical.

Yuyue Medical announced on September 19 that Tencent invested 291 million yuan in cash to subscribe for the new registered capital of its wholly-owned subsidiary Xunjie Medical. After the capital increase was completed, Tencent held 19.5% of its equity, and the registered capital of Xunjie Medical increased. to 186 million yuan. Founded in November 2021, Xunjie Medical is the main body of the emergency business of Yuyue Medical Company, and achieved operating income of 66.49 million yuan in the first half of the year.

By 2035, the number of people aged 60 and over will exceed 400 million.

According to the calculation of the National Health and Medical Commission, it is estimated that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the total number of elderly people aged 60 and above in China will exceed 300 million, accounting for more than 20%, entering a stage of moderate aging. Around 2035, China’s elderly population aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million, accounting for more than 30%, entering a stage of severe aging.

Huang Guangyu reduced his holdings of Gome Retail by 5 billion shares and once said that it would take 18 months for Gome to return to its original market position.

Huang Guangyu, the founder of Gome, once said when he returned that it would take 18 months to restore Gome to its original market position . This commitment did not take effect. Gome Retail lost 3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of half over last year. According to data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Gome Retail’s major shareholders Huang Guangyu, Du Juan, Henghai Investment Co., Ltd. and Gome Management Co., Ltd. reduced their holdings by about 2.737 billion shares on September 14, totaling about HK$531 million.

  • Note: From December last year to the present, Huang Guangyu and his wife Du Juan have reduced their holdings of Gome Retail several times, with a total reduction of more than 5 billion shares.

The “GTA 6” game developer said it would not interrupt development due to the leak.

Rockstar Games issued a statement saying that the “GTA 6” leak was caused by hacking, but it will not affect game development. The team is still working on schedule and will be officially released at an appropriate time.

Ralph Lauren expects operating margins to expand to 15% by fiscal 2025.

On September 19, Ralph Lauren released new long-term goals, projecting annual revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits through fiscal 2025, operating margin expansion to at least 15%, operating profit growth exceeding revenue growth, capital Expenses will be 4%-5% of annual income.

SF Holding’s August revenue increased by more than 40% year-on-year to 21.888 billion yuan.

In terms of business, SF Holding’s express business revenue increased by 10% in August, its business volume increased by nearly 10% year-on-year, and its international and supply chain business revenue, which accounted for nearly one-third of total revenue, tripled. The volume and revenue growth of SF Express’s business segment exceeded the industry average. According to statistics from the State Post Bureau, the business volume of national express delivery service companies increased by 4.9% year-on-year in August.

The world’s top three rice exporters may all raise rice export prices.

According to media reports, Vietnam and Thailand may increase the export price of rice by 20%. Previously, India, the world’s largest rice exporter, began to levy a 20% export tax on milled, hulled, brown rice and other types of rice. Indian rice exports account for about 41% of global rice trade, followed by Vietnam and Thailand, each accounting for about 12% of global rice trade. China is the world’s largest rice importer and the seventh largest rice exporter in the world. It mainly imports rice from Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and other countries.

Kia Motors plans to make electric cars in the U.S. in 2024 to receive subsidies.

According to media reports, Kia Motors plans to produce electric vehicles in the United States in 2024. Three months ago, Hyundai Group announced that it would invest more than $10 billion to build an electric vehicle factory in the United States. Hyundai and its subsidiary Kia have the second-largest share of the U.S. electric vehicle market but are not eligible for the Inflation Cuts Act tax credit. The chairman of Hyundai Motor Group asked the U.S. to delay the new rules until 2025 when its Georgia plant is completed.

Zuckerberg’s fortune has shrunk by about $71 billion this year.

Meta shares are down 57% this year, driven by performance in recent quarters and its investment strategy in the Metaverse. As a result, Mark Zuckerberg’s wealth has shrunk by more than half, to about $71 billion, the most of the super-rich tracked by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He currently has a net worth of $55.9 billion, ranking him 20th among the world’s billionaires.

South Korean prosecutors have asked Interpol to issue a red notice for Terra’s founder.

South Korean prosecutors said Terra founder Do Kwon refused to cooperate with South Korea’s investigation into the loss of $40 billion in the world’s third-largest stablecoin terraUSD and luna tokens. Over the weekend, Do Kwon tweeted that he was not being pursued by any government agency, after South Korea issued an arrest warrant for Do Kwon.

Text | Gong Fangyi, intern Zeng Xing, and intern Xue Yujie

Editor | Gong Fangyi

Title map丨The movie “The 21 Points”

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