Abstract: In the first quarter of 2022, the increase in the number of job applicants was greater than the increase in the number of recruitment needs, and the CIER index fell seasonally. In terms of year-on-year changes, due to the impact of the epidemic, more recruitment activities were held online. Both the number of recruiting needs and the number of job applicants increased, but the number of job applicants increased even more, and the CIER index fell slightly.
The forecast based on the measurement model shows that the CIER index (cyclical component) in the second quarter of 2022 will be lower than that in the first quarter of 2022 and lower than the level of the same period last year; the CIER index (trend component) will be slightly lower than that in the first quarter of 2022. (quarterly factor) is higher than that in the first quarter of 2022. On the whole, due to seasonal factors, the CIER index in the second quarter of 2022 is likely to be higher than that in the first quarter of 2022; at the same time, due to the role of cyclical factors, the CIER index in the second quarter of 2022 The index is likely to be lower than the level of the same period last year. In view of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation and uncertain factors in the international environment, the domestic job market may be under further pressure in the coming period, and the CIER index in the second quarter is more uncertain than before.
In terms of different industries, the intermediary service industry still ranks first in this quarter, and the CIER indices of entertainment/sports/leisure (mainly driven by video anchor positions), professional services/consulting (accounting/law/human resources, etc.) are still relatively high. . On a month-on-month basis, affected by the significant increase in the number of job applicants and the small or declining increase in the number of recruiting needs, the CIER indices of industries with higher prosperity indices all declined seasonally; compared with the same period last year, the CIER indices of industries with higher prosperity indices experienced changes in CIER indices. differentiation. Employment boom in entertainment/sports/leisure, logistics/warehousing and electronic technology/semiconductor/integrated circuits and other industries; intermediary services, professional services/consulting (accounting/law/human resources, etc.), Internet/e-commerce and insurance industry CIER Index fell. In this quarter, the prosperity index of industries such as gifts/toys/arts and crafts/collectibles/luxury goods, energy/minerals/extraction/smelting and environmental protection was still relatively low and competition was fierce. Compared with the previous quarter, the number of job applicants in industries with a lower economic climate index increased seasonally, the increase in the number of recruitment needs was small or decreased, and the CIER index decreased. Compared with the same period of last year, the number of job applicants in most industries with low economic climate index increased significantly, while the increase in recruitment demand was small or decreased, and the CIER index decreased.
In terms of occupations, the trader/operator occupation had the highest prosperity index this quarter, and the CIER index of cooking/cooking/food R&D, film/media/publishing/printing and other occupations was also higher. On a month-on-month basis, affected by the seasonal increase in the number of job applicants and the small or slight decline in the number of recruitment demands, the CIER indices of occupations with higher prosperity indices all declined; compared with the same period last year, the CIER indices of occupations with higher prosperity indices changed. There is differentiation.
The occupations with low prosperity index are mainly senior management, sales administration/business, public relations/media, etc. Compared with the previous quarter, the number of job applicants for occupations with a lower economic climate index increased seasonally, the number of recruitment needs increased slightly or decreased, and the CIER index decreased; differentiation.
In terms of sub-regions and cities, the CIER indices in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions still showed a decreasing trend this quarter, but the CIER indices in the four regions were all below 1.00, indicating a grim employment situation. Affected by the substantial increase in the number of job applicants, the CIER indices of the four regions all declined year-on-year. This quarter, compared with the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta economic circles, the CIER index of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle was the lowest, and the CIER index of each economic circle decreased year-on-year. The second-tier cities have the highest CIER index in this quarter, but the difference in CIER index of different tier cities is small. Affected by the large increase in the number of job applicants, the CIER indices of cities of different grades decreased year-on-year. The CIER index of the top ten cities all dropped year-on-year; the CIER index of the last ten cities also decreased year-on-year, and the employment situation is not optimistic.
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