Probably the last few articles about diamonds. I’ve said too much, and I’m annoyed myself, and it’s easy to be scolded by the giant baby.
Say a few points.
The growth rate of the entire diamond market has almost stalled. The penetration rate of lab-grown diamonds is now below 5% globally.
The cost of cultivated diamonds is now about 20% of the natural cost. I have every confidence that the cost will be lower in the future. Like 5% to 10%. That’s when art became an industrial product.
Natural diamonds do not preserve their value at all. The 100,000 ring bought in the brand store, or the 50,000 or so loose stone that you match yourself, and the recycling of about 30,000. Those who say that natural diamonds preserve their value are fooling you. Only gold holds value.
The difference between cultivated diamonds and natural diamonds can only be identified by some advanced instruments, and it is impossible to see with the naked eye. And the clarity and color of lab-grown diamonds tend to be better, industrial products, and many variables can be controlled.
So now there are manufacturers of natural diamonds, and they start to publicize: flaws are the real beauty in life.
However, when you used to sell, you said that flawless diamonds are the most expensive.
Diamonds with a score of less than 20 are generally rarely tested, because the cost of testing is about 400 yuan, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of the cost.
Inlaid small diamonds are even more impossible to detect. In this part, I can reasonably guess that the small diamond market must be a market where bad money drives out good money. If I were selling small diamonds, I would also use lab-grown diamonds instead of natural ones. Capital is profit-seeking. I believe that manufacturers who sell jewelry will eventually make the same choice as me. Even large diamonds, some manufacturers and merchants will use cultivated diamonds instead of natural ones.
Small broken diamonds are an entry point and will iterate up to about 1 carat.
I have asked many people who are in the business of lab-grown diamonds, and I have come to a conclusion, which is very hurtful, that in general, the higher the education level, the more acceptable it is, and the lower the education level, the more resistant it is to lab-grown diamonds.
This principle is relatively easy to understand. Now the main consumer groups are young people, and today’s young people are generally more educated than in the past, and they are more likely to accept new things, rather than things that were restricted in the past.
The two meanings of diamonds, the first represents love. In fact, it does not represent love, it represents the price men are willing to pay for women. A natural diamond is replaced by a larger and cheaper cultivated diamond, plus a brand-name bag, jewelry, etc., as long as the total price is similar, girls are also willing to accept it.
The second represents wealth and strength, like brand-name bags and watches, and driving luxury cars, which are somewhat similar in nature, with a little social attributes.
That’s the problem. If a bag is sold at 100,000 at the counter, and 20,000 at the duty-free shop. What do you think girls will choose?
Why are cultivated diamonds like duty-free products, not A products, because there are really differences between A products and genuine products, while cultivated diamonds and natural diamonds are only produced in different channels, and the others are exactly the same.
Going into the investigation now, most people do not accept cultivated diamonds because they (they) have no understanding of cultivated diamonds. There is no problem with the acceptance in the United States. The Chinese market is just lacking education.
Xiaobaiguang, Lu Can and other new forces began to disrupt the situation first, and Venti and China Gold also began to deploy. After Pandora successfully tested abroad, it will also start a comprehensive layout.
It seems that Wei Xiaoli first disrupted the situation, then BYD fully embraced new energy, and finally all brands began to transform.
There is a brand I think is very good called Carat Freedom . It should be with Xiaobaiguang. I look forward to this brand being launched.
Once the penetration rate of cultivated diamonds reaches 10%, it will definitely accelerate, because the effect of low price and high quality is easy to spread. Otherwise, why is the penetration rate of Didi Meituan takeaway and Pinduoduo tens of billions of subsidies so fast? 618, Double Eleven is also very popular all of a sudden. The business of duty-free shops in various places is also booming.
Not to mention that luxury goods are different from daily necessities. Lafite produces 200,000 bottles a year, and China can drink 2 million bottles a year. Lafite is not a daily necessities. Where did the 10 times difference come from?
By the way, you are interested in looking for, luxury bags, whether it is the A product that sells the most in one year, or the genuine product that sells the most. I guess the former, and a lot more.
After some of the above points have been said, the judgment of the industry is relatively simple.
1. Cultivated diamonds will definitely replace natural diamonds in large quantities in the future. There is no problem with the penetration rate reaching 30% in the short term.
2. In the natural diamond industry, in addition to some auction-level ones, there will be a certain value in the future, and others under 1 carat will be reduced to slag. De Beers, Alrosa, Angola and Rio Tinto will probably have a hard time in the future.
3. The involution of this industry is certain in the future. No manufacturing industry can maintain a net profit rate of more than 40% for a long time. Asmar, the peak of human technology, only has a net profit rate of 25 to 30%. Not to mention an industry where the technical threshold is not particularly high.
4. After the involution, there is a high probability that the entire diamond market will collapse. From then on, diamonds are no longer noble and scarce, and become ordinary decorations. This is the same as the pearl market. Cultured pearls easily replaced natural pearls and ended up taking down the entire pearl market.
5. If the price of diamonds becomes very low in the future, the value of the jewelry will decrease, but the application in other industries will increase, such as the semiconductor electronics industry. But I don’t know what the net profit and valuation will be at that time.
6. At present, the supply and demand are still out of balance, that is, the supply is less than the demand. I will only enjoy the best part, and I will not get the industry white-hot in the future.
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