1. Maotai
Although the 5-year line of Kweichow Moutai was directly smashed by heavy volume, the stock price had dropped to 1360 yuan on October 28, but the net purchase of Shanghai Stock Connect that day was 78.07 million, which was on October 10. For the first time after falling from above 1800 yuan, the net outflow for 13 consecutive trading days finally came to an end.
It cannot be said that Maotai’s stock price will not continue to hit new lows, but the most ferocious period of capital outflow has passed, and the market will follow. For the broader market, Moutai still has a clear symbolic meaning. In the context of the serious decline in the representativeness of the Shanghai Composite Index, you should pay more attention to Maotai whether you buy it or not. This is a news tree that will tell us a lot.
2. Liquor
Some people mentioned that the future of baijiu, now that it can make money steadily, drive employment, promote internal circulation, and not increase financial risks, is to contribute to the overall economy, and it is still a state-owned enterprise, isn’t it? The significance of Maotai to Guizhou and the five golden flowers to Sichuan is obvious to all.
Everyone knows the current consumption situation. If the situation continues, no one except Moutai can afford it. It is the same for all industries, not only liquor. Liquor at least has performance that can be expected. In the current market, the overall valuation of the industry is indeed a bit high compared to other industries, but at least liquor is the fragrance of Chen, and it is not afraid of overstocking. The cycle may be a little longer.
What about other industries? Even the growth rate of new energy vehicles has been looked down upon by most sellers. In such a market, either do not do it, or do an index, or find a friend of time, depending on the investor’s own preferences.
3. Real estate
The data of Poly and Vanke on Friday may be beyond some people’s expectations. In fact, the sales data of the previous years are calculated. Although the gross profit margin will be uncertain, the situation of the company is generally understood.
The impact of the 3rd quarter report on the whole year is relatively small, and the data of each company is indeed bad, but the main thing is to look at the settlement of the annual report, especially in the context of the poor sales environment this year, to see how much asset impairment will be done.
From the market’s view of real estate stocks, the poor performance of each company within one or two years is expected, and the sales data of the previous two years and the current industry situation are all clear signs. In terms of financial reports, even for a few leading central enterprises, the task for the next one or two years is to try to reduce the speed of decline as much as possible.
For these top state-owned enterprises, it is mainly to see how much the gross profit of the land can be improved, but it also depends on how much the market can recover later. Some things are now a variable, there are still a lot of tools in the toolbox, see when to use it.
4. Valuation
High valuations are the original sin of all companies, and they need to pay more to slowly resolve them, but there are always people who regard this as a growth benefit. A good company that is not a good stock will hurt investors the most.
Whether the performance is good or not is not compared with others, but with your own valuation. Single-digit PE, a growth rate of more than 10% is not bad. Stocks with more than 100 PEs may not be able to sustain their performance by doubling.
At present, the valuation level of the market is falling as a whole, and the water is rising. When the whole market is killing valuations, the value is more and more, not less and less. Sometimes, in order to pick up the bloody chips, I am also covered with bruises and bruises, but after the rain is over, it will all be worth it. When you give money you treat it as a disaster, that’s the real disaster.
With the mentality of making money slowly, you may make more money. Whether it is left or right, the opportunity is not far away, wait for a clear signal to come out.
5. Logic
Whether you hate it or love it, put away your emotions. In capital markets, sentiment doesn’t change anything. For most investors, the biggest life-saving straw is that the CSI 300 index has fallen more than in 2018 and is currently at the historical quantile of 17.58%.
The decline from last year represents a logical end. Some of the beneficiaries of the past ten years may have come and gone. Like it or not, we all have to adapt to a new logic, whoever adapts faster will live longer. @Today’s topic
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