First, put two pictures first 
The picture above shows that on July 6 this year, the highest price of pig price of 23.98 yuan began to pull back. The lowest price on July 8 was 22.31 yuan.
As of today, July 15, it is the 10th day, and the price of pigs is basically between 22 and 24 yuan.
The corresponding breeding time is from July to September 2021. The piglets bred in September are still in the standard pig period, so there is no rush to slaughter.
Let’s analyze the second picture again. During this time period in August 2019, it is very close to the current pig price trend.
This time period should correspond to breeding in August-September 2018.
ASF first appeared in early August 2018, and began to spread nationwide after September, so it can be seen that after September 2019, pig prices began to rise continuously.
Posted on July 4, it is predicted that the pig price will be adjusted for about 10 days in the later period.
The farmers were not really responding to Fage’s call. The main reason is that after entering the summer, it is really impossible to press the bar. In summer, the feed and meat of pigs are slower than the conversion, and the big fat can not be sold at a good price. The price of 22 to 24 also has a good income, so I began to choose to sell.
At the slaughtering end, due to poor consumption, pig harvesting is not active.
For more than ten days or even to the end of July, the farmers and slaughterers were safe.
2. How much can the price of pigs reach in the second half of the year?
Many friends asked this question, and some friends said that I got the pig price right this time.
My eyes have been bad recently, and I was thinking about this when I closed my eyes and rested.
I have previously posted a similar butterfly effect in the pig cycle. If you are interested, you can go to Baidu and find out about the butterfly effect. Among them, there is American meteorologist Edward Lorenz’s prediction and reasoning about the weather, and finally put forward the theory of the butterfly effect.
If you want to calculate exactly how the atmosphere changes with a computer, that’s not possible. Because small errors can eventually lead to exponentially increasing changes.
The same is true on the breeding side, because the increase or decrease of one sow will lead to a fattening increase or decrease of more than 20 times in the future.
So, just know and understand the trend changes. If the number of fertile animals is gradually reduced by 1 million in the second half of last year, then the number of fattening animals will be reduced by 20 million in the second half of this year.
After the beginning of autumn on August 7, the industry practice will start to grow fat and stick to autumn fat. There will be a break in this time period. The price of pigs may go to 30.
Third, on the impact on CPI.
Worrying about the impact of rising pig prices on CPI, I saw a brokerage make a table two days ago to count the impact of rising pig prices on CPI. Finally, I came to the conclusion that pig prices account for about 2.3% to 2.6% of the CPI index. I died laughing at this, this researcher is so cute.
Just look up the information and you will know.
Food, tobacco and alcohol account for 30% of the CPI, of which pork accounts for 2.5%, haha. $Muyuan Shares(SZ002714)$
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