Hello everyone, I’m Han Shan who stayed up all night with you to watch the disc.
Since Apple’s Q2 earnings season, I have been wanting to talk about Apple, but I am busy with my entrepreneurial projects during the day and speculating in stocks at night. I am a little nervous, but Apple has attracted the attention of friends in the US stock market, and with Apple’s 2 trillion US dollars, he The situation will also affect our judgment on the broader market. Although I haven’t been long in Apple in the past year, I still must take time to post on the weekends to chat about this company, hoping to help my friends. (Original financial report: click here )
After the market close on April 28, Apple released its 22-year Q2 financial report. Apple CFO Luca Maestri commented on the first quarter results, saying that the operating income of the service business in the quarter hit a record high, iPhone, Mac computers, wearable devices, and home products. The revenue of the company and accessories all hit a new high for the same period in the first quarter. The strong operating performance generated more than $28 billion in operating cash flow for the company in the quarter, allowing the company to return nearly $27 billion to shareholders in the quarter.
At least until 2021, Apple remains one of the most profitable companies in the world. In fiscal 2021, Apple achieved operating income of US$365.817 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.26%; net profit was US$94.680 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64.92%.
About to kill the valuation of Apple!
If you only look at the domestic media to speculate on US stocks, you will basically lose money and not run away. You still need to go to the financial report and have your own thinking.
Let me start with the conclusion. This is Apple’s most unconfident financial report in the past five years.
The financial report goes straight to the core. After Apple stopped releasing detailed sales data in 2018, if you want to ask me the core data of Apple’s financial report, it must be service revenue.
Apple service business includes: subscription service (Apple One), advertising revenue (Apple search engine and App Store) and fee income (App Store), Apple streaming media (Apple TV), cloud (Apple Cloud), etc. After detailed user data, service revenue can help us push back Apple’s user profile.
The reason why technology stocks can give high valuations relative to traditional industries is because of their unparalleled growth rate. This goes without saying.
Now, if the number of Apple’s users has not changed at all, no new users have been added, and no old users have withdrawn, the penetration rate of subscription services and streaming media services will gradually increase over time, that is, users who did not use Apple’s streaming media before. If you choose a subscription, etc., then the service revenue will automatically grow. Then a good financial report, in terms of service revenue growth, must let investors see the speed of expansion.
Pull out the financial report for this quarter, and the revenue details are in the second table, as follows:
Q2 Apple’s service revenue was 19.8 billion US dollars, and last year’s 16.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.1% month-on-month, all of which are numbers, how to understand this 17.1%? So we have pulled the financial report for the past 10 years, and we can draw the following figure:
1. The last time Apple’s service revenue fell continuously year-on-year was in Q2-19 Q2, 1 year, and the stock trend is as follows:
14% increase over a one-year period
2. The last year-on-year continuous increase in service revenue was in Q3-21 in 2019. The stock price in these two years is as follows:
86% in the first year, 85% in the second year, and 220% in the second year. Although the data is limited, it can be seen that there is a clear positive correlation between stock prices and growth rates.
3. Then to April 28, which is the most recent year
With an increase of 28%, the stock price is gradually deviating from the growth rate, which is why I haven’t played it recently.
Time is limited. I will not analyze other Apple product lines, mobile phones, and wearable devices. The conclusion I have come to is similar: Apple’s growth rate has declined for four consecutive quarters, which will greatly consume the patience of some investors.
Bonuses run out!
I don’t deny that Apple is one of the best companies, but it’s an indisputable fact that Apple’s innovation has been weak in recent years.
The red arrow is the time when Huawei was kicked out of the Google Store. This is in line with the growth of Apple’s service growth rate and its stock price. Today, two years after Huawei’s withdrawal from high-end machines, Apple finally ate the last dividend.
It is precisely based on the long-term in-depth tracking of APPLE that Hanshan once posted a post before the market on April 29 and successfully predicted that APPLE would plummet. The historical posts are as follows:
It was already late at night after I finished writing. In fact, I had my own judgment when I got the Q2 financial report, but it is really tiring to write my judgment into an article. If you feel that you have gained something, you might as well let more people see it, so that Hanshan will have more creative motivation, and will update Apple’s shareholding strategy later.
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