Tencent’s real value area

This opinion is the only one of Snowball and is for reference only.

The first thing I want to talk about is the most concerned issue of iron fans. Why did Tencent fall so much? so cruel?

Why? Because at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, the frenzied run of white horse stocks should not have occurred. That wave was caused by the frantic influx of funds and large funds. That wave can be said to have overdrawn the 3-5 years of blue-chip stocks.

Tencent’s 750 wedge is great. One is the 20-year mask incident that led to a sharp rise in corporate profits, and the other is the blue-chip bull market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, which led to the emergence of the 750 stock price, which may be the biggest in the past 5 years. top.

This remark has been said by Coke when Tencent was above 650, and it is by no means an afterthought.

Coke talks about mistakes made by big Vs.

This year’s Penguin’s profit after deducting investment profits and losses is about 100-120 billion, which is a sharp decline compared to 20-21. People who bought Tencent at 550-700 thought that Penguin’s performance would continue to grow. This is their mistake, iron fan We remember that no company’s performance will continue to grow, and the same is true of Maotai. Don’t be subjective. This company will continue to develop in the direction you predict. Just like life planning, there is always one thing that disrupts it. all your deployments.

Coke talks about penguin real pe.

Many people see Tencent’s 11pe now, and they will marvel at how cheap it is, but they don’t know that there is a lot of water in it, and the most accurate pe19.8-23pe is currently. If you think of Tencent as an Internet company, you should use the pe of the Internet to see him. You must not include his investment income. The investment is vague. It may make 100 billion this year and lose 200 billion next year. Tencent’s external How much is the investment equity worth? No one can calculate until Tencent sells all of it. Just like our own stock account, there may be 1 million this year, and it may only be 100,000 in the big bear market next year.

Coke talks about Penguin’s greatest value.

In Cola’s view, Tencent’s greatest value is the platform built by Tencent. This platform is still unmatched in China. The status of VX is currently very stable. It is too difficult to shake VX. The habits of users have been cultivated. Yes, the industry chain has been formed, and everyone is using VX to communicate. Even if you don’t like it, you should download it for the convenience of work communication. Unless Tencent makes a big mistake, it cannot be replaced by others, and there is no possibility of a certain shaking. According to Coke, Tencent’s management is very obedient, and they like it very much. There is no reason for them to abandon an obedient child.

Coke talks about the Penguin game section.

In terms of games, Penguin really has a hard time. Now that children are not good at learning, more and more parents are venting their dissatisfaction to the game. It is not the fault of the game that the learning is not good. The game can indeed affect some students, but only 3%. . Existence is reasonable, and games are now gradually evolving into social attributes. This is actually good, and it can increase the distance between people. But the word game is the original sin, no matter how you change it, it is sinful, so Tencent has a strong desire to survive, and it is very careful to do it. Furthermore, the most popular kings and eating chickens are already on the decline. The kings have been out for 7-8 years. The audience is now aesthetically fatigued and their ability to make money is getting weaker and weaker. Penguin will no longer release a blockbuster game product in the future. , relying only on the current game, it will definitely go downhill. Before the end game of Tencent, the fire was a mess, and now it is facing the closure of the server.

Another point of view from Tencent.

1: Fintech and enterprise services, although the current profit is very small, it is not a sector with potential, and there is also policy support. The Tencent applet health code has reached more than one billion people, which means that ZF also relies on Penguin. platform.

2: The platform of VX holds one billion traffic, which is the foundation of Tencent and the cornerstone of Tencent’s trillions of dollars. If it is lost, the market value of Tencent’s trillions will be evaporated instantly. But so far, the status of VX will not be affected within 10 years. If this aspect is not affected, we can buy Tencent with peace of mind.

3: When to buy Tencent? Cola believes that the best time to buy is when it is 2,400 billion Hong Kong dollars, that is, when it is RMB 2 trillion. At this time, the pe after Tencent’s deduction is between 16-17, which belongs to the value area. If it falls to 1.5 trillion RMB, it is quite worthwhile, but the probability is very small, but we must also make plans for the most extreme situation, and keep some cash for emergencies.

4: Internetization is an indispensable life tool in the 21st century. After years of flooding development, this industry is gradually maturing. This time, the entire industry is slowing down, and the fittest will be eliminated. The entire industry is currently in a downward cycle, when will it enter an upward cycle? That will require the emergence of a good industry or a good product.

5: A bull market must have a bull market thinking, and a bear market must also have a bear market thinking. You can’t look at this stock with a bull market thinking in a bear market. This will make you pay a heavy price!

6: Penguin’s current value range is around 250-260, and below 250 is an undervalued area. This is a point deduced by Coke using countless methods. The risk factor of buying at this point is extremely low, and the probability of making money is very high; iron Fans can buy reasonably according to their personal positions, and 280 can also build a position, provided that they can withstand the pain of buying more and more as they fall.

7: The person who is still afraid of the current price has no value anchor in the center ⚓️, he himself does not know how much the penguin is worth? I will only follow the big V, the big guy will copy the homework behind, and he will not be able to bear the decline and cut his meat, or bear the decline, and wait until the return to sell, even if the penguin rises to 800 in the future, it has nothing to do with him.

Iron fans remember a sentence: VX does not fall, penguins are still tumblers.

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