Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1304
The domestic civil aviation industry has quickly turned into a charity
At 11:30 am on August 31st, I took the China Eastern flight back to Shanghai from Beijing Capital. The aircraft is an Airbus 330 with 234 seats. There were only 100 passengers on the day. For flight safety, most passengers are arranged to sit at the back of the aircraft to ensure that the front and rear of the aircraft are balanced.
The face value of this flight is less than 500 yuan. If other people’s fares are the same as me, China Eastern Airlines can only receive 50,000 yuan in air ticket revenue for 100 people flying more than 1,000 kilometers, which is not enough for it to pay for fuel.
It’s no wonder that Buffett has made big money in many industries and companies, but invested heavily in airlines.
The reason he hates buying an airline is nothing more than the rigidity of cost and the large fluctuation of income, which leads to the fluctuation of profits. Such a cost-income model can be used in almost all civil aviation markets, including China. Catch up with a black swan event, the impact is even more difficult to measure.
According to the latest weekly report released by the civil aviation data statistical analysis agency Feichangzhun this week, in the week from August 29 to September 4, 88,948 passenger flights took off and landed at transport airports in mainland China, which is equivalent to the weekly average in 2009. , the average domestic aircraft utilization rate is 3.51 hours/day.
- The average utilization rate of wide-body aircraft (aircraft with two aisles in the cabin) is 1.11 hours/day, which is not enough to fly from Beijing to Shanghai;
- The average utilization rate of narrow-body aircraft (with an aisle in the cabin) is 3.88 hours/day, which is not enough to fly back and forth between Beijing and Shanghai.
Considering the rigid operating costs of airlines, such low utilization and low occupancy rates (60% – 70%) make airlines look like charities on the surface.
Because from the time the airline drives the plane back from the manufacturer’s hangar, various costs and expenses start to be incurred.
Referring to the research of Xu Songlin, senior engineer of Shanghai Aircraft Design and Research Institute of COMAC, airline operating expenses include fixed costs (such as depreciation costs for aircraft purchase and holding), fuel costs, maintenance costs, crew costs, meal costs, navigation costs Costs, airport facility fees, ground service costs, civil aviation construction funds, etc.
- Taking China Eastern Airlines’ 2022 semi-annual report data as an example, the cost of jet fuel accounts for 26.38% of the total cost, depreciation accounts for 26.61%, and employee compensation accounts for 23.63%.
- Jet fuel is a variable cost, and you use it more to fly.
- Depreciation and employee compensation can be considered fixed costs because costs and expenses are incurred whether the plane is flying or not.
A senior civil aviation industry insider told us that the pure single cost (excluding depreciation cost) of flying from Beijing to Shanghai (or Shanghai to Beijing) is about 50,000 yuan. If depreciation and other costs are included, the cost will be even higher.
Therefore, we tried to calculate the unit operating cost of China Eastern Airlines based on the transportation capacity invested by China Eastern Airlines in the first half of 2022 (44.5356 billion available seat kilometers) and the actual operating costs (29.582 billion yuan) (not to calculate the “other” not specified by China Eastern Airlines for the time being. Operating cost”; accounting for 6.78% of the cost), about 0.6642 yuan per unit seat kilometer.
Note: The information comes from the 2022 semi-annual report of China Eastern Airlines. Click to see larger picture
Next, we took the flight data of China Eastern Airlines from Shanghai Hongqiao to Beijing Capital Airport on September 5 to calculate the cost per flight. The aircraft type is Boeing 737-800, with 164 seats, 70 passengers and a flight mileage of 1,178 kilometers.
- The total cost of a single flight is about 128324 yuan (0.6642*1178*164). in:
- Single jet fuel cost 38867 yuan
- A single depreciation fee of 39197 yuan
- Single take-off and landing fee 12562 yuan
- Single meal cost 1904.35 yuan
- Single civil aviation infrastructure fund 980.37 yuan
- Employee compensation for a single apportionment is 34,811.83 yuan
There were actually 70 passengers on the day, and each person paid 498 yuan (3.3% discount for economy class air tickets, direct sales price of China Eastern Airlines), flight income = 34,860 yuan < single jet fuel cost < single take-off and landing fee.
- If we switch to wide-body aircraft with more available seats, the cost of a single flight is higher and the loss of spare time is higher. For example, on the flight I took, the single cost reached 183,088 yuan, and the pure air ticket income was only 50,000 yuan. The estimated income is about 177,300 yuan based on the fare of 1,773 yuan (10% off).
Last year, China’s three major state-owned airlines posted a combined net loss of 49.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. In the first half of this year, the three airlines recorded a combined net loss of 16.681 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%.
- Note: The operating cost per seat kilometer of China Eastern Airlines calculated by us is as follows
- Jet fuel cost per seat kilometer, 0.2012 yuan
- Take-off and landing fee per seat kilometer, 0.0650 yuan
- Meal fee per seat kilometer, 0.0098 yuan
- Engine and high cycle parts depreciation cost per seat kilometer, 0.2029 yuan
- Unit civil aviation infrastructure fund, 0.0051 yuan
- Employee salary per seat kilometer, 0.1802 yuan
- The total cost per seat kilometer above: 0.6642 yuan
The belated Huawei Mate 50 series
After two years, Huawei Mate 50 series debuted at the autumn new product launch conference. Among them, the Mate 50 series starts at 4,999 yuan, the Mate 50 Pro starts at 6,799 yuan, and the Porsche Design model starts at 12,999 yuan. As a high-end flagship product set by Huawei, it is equipped with black technologies such as satellite communications, an emergency mode that can be used even without electricity, and a super-optical camera.
Hardcore but less soulful.
- In addition to the Mate 50 E equipped with the Snapdragon 778G processor, the other three models are equipped with the Snapdragon 8Gen1 4G version processor, missing the Kirin chip and 5G.
- In Huawei’s high-end line, the P series pursues images and fashion. The Mate series focuses on hard-core technologies such as super performance and advanced chips.
It has been ten years since the first-generation Mate was released in 2013.
- In 2018, Mate 20 was equipped with Kirin 980, and Huawei caught up with Qualcomm in performance for the first time.
- In 2019, the Mate 30 uses Huawei’s first integrated 5G SoC chip, the Kirin 990 5G, with dual main cameras.
- In 2020, the Mate 40 will be released, equipped with Kirin 9000 5G, and blessed with IMX700 images, becoming a dividing line for Huawei’s high-end machine products.
With the performance upgrades of previous Mates, Huawei’s high-end phones have also reached their peak. The sales of the Mate 30 series exceeded 7 million in the first two months.
- According to data released by IDC, in the first half of 2020, Huawei surpassed Apple in the first half of 2020 with a 44.1% share of the smartphone market in the price segment above US$600.
According to Gartner, Huawei shipped 45 million mobile phones in Europe in 2019. However, due to chip sanctions, shipments decreased by 37% in the second quarter of 2020.
- In 2021, Huawei’s global sales will only account for 3%, and the ranking will drop to ninth; the domestic market shipment ranking will drop out of the top five.
- In the first half of this year, Huawei’s consumer business revenue continued to decrease, down 25% year-on-year to 101.3 billion yuan; the proportion of Huawei’s revenue contribution also decreased from about 50% at the peak to one-third.
The global mobile phone market is sluggish this year, and the total mobile phone shipments in the Chinese market fell by 21.7% in the first half of the year. In the high-end phone market, Huawei is the only Chinese mobile phone manufacturer that can compete with Apple. However, after a series of risk events in 2018 and beyond, there is no brand that can fill the market.
- According to Canalys data, China’s smartphone market shipped about 67.2 million units in the second quarter of this year, down 14.7% year-on-year; however, Apple sold about 9.5 million units and its market share increased to 14.1%.
- During 618 this year, the iPhone 13 became the number one best-selling mobile phone, accounting for almost half of the sales. (Intern Zeng Xing)
Gaming suppliers move from Macau SAR to Singapore
China’s Macau SAR is losing its status as the world’s casino center. Affected by the epidemic, the revenue of Macau’s gaming industry has declined sharply in the past two years. In August, Macau’s gaming revenue was only 9% of that before the epidemic. Companies are moving from Macau, China, to markets such as Singapore and the Philippines.
- Gaming revenue in Singapore has returned to 70% of pre-pandemic levels, the country welcomed 12 times as many tourists in the first half of the year as it did in the same period last year, and average hotel room rates hit a decade high in July.
- Gaming revenue in the Philippines and South Korea also reached 75% of pre-pandemic levels.
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Jay Chun, chairman of the Macau Gaming Equipment Manufacturers Association, said he was aware of at least four Macau-based casino suppliers that were moving overseas. Light & Wonder Inc., a custom gaming company, is preparing to relocate its staff to the Philippines and open an office there, one Japanese gaming company, who asked not to be named, said it plans to sell more than half of its revenue in Macau after its revenue plummeted 90 percent. Inventory was withdrawn from Macau and employees were moved to Singapore.
In August this year, new regulations for the Macau gaming industry set the upper limit on the number of gaming machines that can be operated. Starting from 2023, the maximum number of gaming machines in Macau will be 12,000. In 2019, the number of gaming machines in the Macau market was 17,000. Under the influence of this policy, the exodus of gaming suppliers from Macau may continue. (intern Xue Yujie)
Porsche’s largest German IPO could spark new controversy among founding families
Volkswagen announced that Porsche will conduct an IPO in late September or early October, depending on market conditions. The industry estimates that Porsche’s market value may be between 60 billion euros and 85 billion euros, or become Europe’s largest IPO since 1999.
- As of September 5, the market capitalizations of Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, Ford, and General Motors were $846.7 billion, $198.9 billion, $94.4 billion, $61 billion, and $56.1 billion, respectively.
Volkswagen said it may use some of the proceeds from Porsche’s IPO to fund the Porsche Piercy family’s purchase of voting shares, and the rest to distribute dividends to other shareholders, pay bonuses to 130,000 German employees and fund the company’s electric vehicles. transformation, etc.
In 2007, Porsche Holding (Porsche SE) failed to acquire Volkswagen and was instead forced to sell its sports car business Porsche Cars (Porsche AG) to Volkswagen. According to media reports, the two families behind Porsche Holdings, the Porsche family and the Piëch family, both hope to have greater control over Porsche after it goes public. This IPO may reignite the dispute between the two families.
- From 2009 to 2012, Volkswagen completed a 100% stake in Porsche with a total price of 8.46 billion euros. The previous owner of the brand was Porsche Holdings.
- Currently, Porsche Holding holds a 53% stake in Volkswagen. (intern Xue Yujie)
The United States also plans to double the proportion of electric vehicle sales, which may not be enough for lithium
Recently, the “Inflation Reduction Act” in the United States came into effect, and the Biden administration plans to make electric vehicle sales account for 40% to 50% of total new car sales by 2030. In this regard, the CEO of Tesla supplier Piedmont Lithium, a lithium mining company, said that the lithium resources in the United States are not enough to achieve this goal.
The battery system is the most expensive component in EV production, accounting for about 40%. Whether it is a ternary lithium battery or a lithium iron phosphate battery, lithium is inseparable. Most of the U.S. supply comes from abroad.
- This year alone, rising demand has caused the price of lithium carbonate to nearly double, and the International Energy Agency expects demand to grow 40-fold over the next 20 years.
- The distribution of lithium resources is highly concentrated, and more than half of the world’s reserves are distributed in the “lithium triangle” area of the Pune Plateau in South America, mainly salt lake lithium mines. In terms of production, the top three globally are Australia, Chile and China.
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OTHER NEWS
Tencent COO Ren Yuxin resigned from Sea’s board of directors.
Southeast Asian game and Internet giant Sea announced on September 5 that it received a notice from Tencent COO Ren Yuxin to resign as a director of Sea’s board of directors, effective September 5. At the same time, Tencent granted all of its Sea shares to Sea’s board of directors with irrevocable voting rights. In January of this year, Tencent reduced its stake in Sea by about US$3 billion, and remains the largest shareholder with more than 15% of Sea after the reduction.
A new cluster of epidemics related to colleges and universities has been added in Beijing.
- On September 5, 264 new cases were confirmed locally, including 68 in Sichuan and 52 in Tibet. There were 1,235 new asymptomatic infections, including 453 in Tibet, 148 in Heilongjiang and 93 in Qinghai.
- Sichuan has added a new local “68+70”. At present, the daily increase of positive cases in Chengdu is more than 100, and the social aspect has not been cleared.
- From 6:00 a.m. on the 6th in Luxian County, Sichuan Province, temporary static management will be implemented for 4 days, and traffic control will be carried out in and out of the channel.
- Liaoning added a local “2+89”; on the 6th, Dalian carried out regional nucleic acid testing throughout the city.
- Jilin added a new local “3+19”, and Changchun City reported a total of more than 180 local infections in September, which are cases associated with infectious disease hospitals.
- From 0:00 to 10:00 on the 6th, 1 new confirmed case and 5 positive nucleic acid tests were added in Changping, Beijing, all of whom were students of Beijing University of Chemical Technology.
Four Chinese ministries and commissions introduced the successive policies of the package of economic stabilization policies.
On September 5, at the State Council’s regular policy briefing, relevant departments introduced the follow-up policy measures to the package of economic stabilization policies. Among them, it is proposed to increase the quota of policy-based development financial instruments by more than 300 billion yuan, guide local governments to make good use of the local balance limit of more than 500 billion yuan of special bonds according to law, accelerate the promotion of new formats such as cross-border e-commerce, market procurement and trade methods, and launch new business models. A new batch of policies to stabilize foreign investment, such as promoting investment in manufacturing and setting up foreign R&D centers.
The price of all iPhone 14 models may increase by 15% over the previous generation.
The price increase is speculated by Guo Mingchi, an analyst at Tianfeng International, who said that part of the reason for the price increase is the increase in the price of mobile phone parts and the appreciation of the US dollar. After the price increase, the average sales price of the iPhone 14 series is expected to be between $1,000 and $1,050. This will be the first time the price of the iPhone has increased in three years.
The first batch of central frozen pork reserves this year will be released on September 8.
This is the first time this year that the National Development and Reform Commission has taken measures to release pork reserves. Earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that in order to ensure the supply of pork in the pork market during the holidays, the government’s pork reserves will be released in batches from September. Due to the low price of pork in the first half of this year, the NDRC has purchased and stored 13 batches of frozen pork. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market on September 1 was 29.76 yuan/kg, about 10 yuan/kg higher than the same period last year.
The inventory levels of the world’s four largest automotive chip factories have recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
The inventories of Renesas Electronics of Japan, Infineon Technologies of Germany, NXP Semiconductors of the Netherlands, and STMicroelectronics of Switzerland have returned to their pre-epidemic levels, and the tight supply and demand of automotive chips has improved. The rise in chips that began in 2020 was originally a cyclical fluctuation, and the subsequent epidemic and supply chain tensions intensified this process. Now for each chip factory, the backlog of inventory may become a new pressure.
Amazon shrinks its huge delivery network and shed 100,000 employees in the second quarter.
Amazon announced the closure of two Baltimore locations next month, affecting more than 300 employees. Amazon has closed at least 25 U.S. delivery locations in the first eight months of this year and delayed opening another 15, according to consulting firm MWPVL. Amazon’s workforce fell by 100,000 to 1.52 million in the second quarter, the company’s biggest quarter-over-quarter decline.
Ireland fines Meta 400 million euros for violating children’s privacy.
The Irish Data Protection Commission has fined Meta-owned social media platform Instagram €405 million for breaches of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), the second-largest GDPR fine after Amazon’s €746 million fine big fine. The Irish Data Protection Commission began investigating Instagram in 2020 after it made the accounts of children aged 13 to 17 public by default.
Apple Watch Pro CAD renderings exposed, with titanium casing and larger display.
According to the exposed renderings, the Apple Watch Pro has a new physical button on the left side, and the display is larger and flatter than before. The Apple Watch Pro will be Apple’s most expensive smartwatch to date, priced between $900 and $1,000. According to previous reports, the Apple Watch Pro has a larger battery and a sturdy titanium case, and the display can display more fitness data.
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“Blue Mount Fuji Curry Rice” is very popular in Japan.
A “Blue Mount Fuji Curry Rice” launched by Phonet in 2018 is highly sought after in Japan. It was thought to be a short-lived but gradually became a classic, with a unit price of 864 yen (about 42.51 yuan). Blue is a color that makes people lose their appetite, and the contrast of low expectations but good taste is the reason for its continued popularity. Now Phonet has expanded the range of blue products, and has launched blue Mt. Fuji curry bread, blue Mt. Fuji draft beer and so on.
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LG wants you to buy NFTs on TVs.
LG Electronics announced that the company has released the NFT platform LG Art Lab, which users can directly access and trade NFTs on LG’s smart TVs. Currently, LG Art Lab is only available in the US for LG TVs running webOS 5.0 or higher. Previously, Samsung also said that it would add NFT functions to Samsung TVs such as MICRO LED and Neo QLED.
Text | Gong Fangyi, intern Zeng Xing, and intern Xue Yujie
Editor | Gong Fangyi
This article is reprinted from: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1304
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