1. Quantity
It is expected that a large number of coal power projects will be approved this year and next (supporting power supply), three 80 million kilowatts (80Gw): 80 million kilowatts will be approved each year this year and next year, and 80 million kilowatts will be guaranteed to be put into production in the next year. It is estimated that the total capacity will be 200 million kilowatts (200GW) in three years; qualitatively, the newly added installed capacity has doubled from the original expectation; (7.4 million kilowatts of newly added production capacity will be put into operation in the first half of 22 years).
2. Price
The equipment space accounts for about 40% of the investment. The investment of 2 sets of 660,000-kilowatt equipment is 1.6-2 billion yuan, and the investment of 2 sets of 1 million-kilowatt equipment is 2.4-2.8 billion yuan. Among them, the three main engines: boilers, steam turbines, and generators are the major ones. Specifically:
One-time reheat: 660,000 kilowatts, boiler cost 500 million, steam turbine 300 million, generator 150 million, comprehensive 900 million+; million kilowatt unit, boiler 850 million, steam turbine 3.5 B, generator 200 million, comprehensive about 1.4 billion;
Secondary reheat: 660,000, boiler 700 million, steam turbine 400 million, generator 250 million, total about 1.4 billion; million kilowatts, boiler 1 billion, steam turbine 400 million, generator 250 million, 1.7 billion;
If the approval is accelerated in the future, the prices of the three mainframes will have an upward trend, but the increase is not expected to be large, and the profit margin level will be improved.
3. Competitive landscape
Since the steam turbine and the generator are closely connected, they can be regarded as one. The competition pattern mainly depends on the steam turbine and the boiler:
1) Steam turbine: Ultra-supercritical, Shanghai Electric has obvious advantages, high market share, high efficiency after production, and the proportion of orders is relatively large, which is expected to be 50%; Dongfang Electric , the second; Harbin Electric is the least;
2) Boiler: The efficiency of the three major factories is similar, and there is no significant difference in the order share. Dongfang Electric has relatively more boilers, while Shanghai Electric and Harbin Electric are slightly weaker;
3) From the perspective of construction rhythm, the boiler needs to be constructed in conjunction with the plant construction. The delivery of boiler equipment is the earliest and longest, and the performance contribution is expected to be reflected first.
4. Market space
1) 2*660,000 kilowatts: 80GW corresponds to 60.6 power stations, and the equipment investment of a single power station is 1.6-2 billion, a total of 97-120 billion; the three main equipment accounts for 56%-70%, and the market space is 54-84 billion ;
2) 2*1 million kilowatts: 80GW corresponds to 40 power stations, and the equipment investment of a single power station is 2.4-2.8 billion, a total of 96-112 billion; the three main equipment accounts for 58%-61%, and the market space is 54-68 billion;
3) Among the three main engines, boilers account for about 50%;
Q&A:
11. What is the value of equipment and suppliers?
Thermal power units, equipment accounts for 40% (the largest); the largest: boilers, steam turbines, generators, three main engines: 2 sets of 660,000 units, 900 million units are primary reheating, and secondary reheating is about 1.2 billion; 2 units One million units, 1.4-1.5 billion reheats for the first time, and 1.6-1.7 billion for the second reheating;
Other hot standby: feed water pump, driving device (steam turbine), condenser, pulverized coal, central mill, seat remover, blower (three major fans), each close to tens of millions;
Auxiliary system: coal is transported from wharf or railway to coal yard, dumper (loading and unloading), bucket turbine, reclaimer, tens of millions of investment; coal becomes ash after combustion; power generation, transformer, circuit breaker, switch cabinet, booster device , 1KW-2KW;
2. The investment amount and suppliers of the three mainframes?
1) One-time reheat: 660,000 kilowatts, boiler cost 500 million, steam turbine 300 million, generator 150 million, comprehensive 900 million+; million kilowatt unit, boiler 850 million, steam turbine 350 million, generator 200 million, comprehensive 1.4 billion about;
2) Secondary reheating: 660,000, boiler 700 million, steam turbine 400 million, generator 250 million, total about 1.4 billion; million kilowatts, boiler 1 billion, steam turbine 400 million, generator 250 million, 1.7 billion; In the first half of this year, if it is on a large scale, the delivery cycle will be extended, and 3-4 units are doing it, and the price will rise in the future and it is expected;
3. What are the advantages and disadvantages of suppliers?
The equipment cost is high, concentrated in three main engine factories: Shanghai Electric, Dongfang Electric, Harbin Electric
Among the three main engines, steam turbines and generators are generally selected from the same manufacturer. The two devices are linked together, mainly looking at the steam turbine and the boiler;
Steam Turbine: Ultra-supercritical, Shanghai Electric has obvious advantages, high market share, high efficiency after production, and the proportion of orders is relatively large, which is expected to be 50%; Dongfang Electric, the second; Kazakhstan Electric the least;
Boilers: The efficiency of the three major factories is similar, and there is no significant difference in the order share. There are relatively many boilers in the East, but Shanghai Electric and Harbin Electric are slightly weaker;
4. National Power Generation Group, IGFC technology?
On the basis of IGCC, combined with hydrogen fuel cell, it becomes a synthesizer through coal chemical industry. Oxidation of hydrocarbons. Hydrogen is transformed into electricity through fuel cells; first of all, there is no large-scale application, and it is currently in the research stage; involving input-output ratio, coal becomes electricity, which is the most mature; IGFC is more complex, with high carbon dioxide concentration and carbon capture; unless there is a high Subsidies, otherwise there will be no advantage in cost, and there will be no large-scale application within 5-10 years;
5. What is the level of equipment expenditure for flexibility retrofit?
Operation flexibility transformation, built on the basis of active service, the three main engines are irrelevant, and on the basis that the main engine is not replaced, the thermal power unit load is reduced to 40%. The technology is mature, the system maintains stable operation, and the burner itself is reformed; further down, 30%-20% needs a slightly larger reform, mainly in the boiler, the boiler parts, and the water wall to be adjusted, mainly in the main engine plant. What we do, the coal consumption is several times higher, and the equipment is damaged (in terms of service life, uneven heating, metal fatigue damage); efficiency, equipment, and electricity are low. If the local low-load electricity price is not high enough (compensation mechanism), the power plant does not Motivation to do it; • It depends on the policies given by each province, and the difference is large; when it reaches 20%, the coal consumption may increase exponentially; technically: it is relatively mature;
6. Objective and subjective; objectively: Can the construction of a thermal power plant site support the conditions for starting construction of three 8KW plants?
Objectively: It is twice as large as the expected 3KW-4KW, but it is not as large as before, and the location selection is relatively easy. The five major groups all have reserve plants. Subjective: Huaneng lost money last year. The group will talk about politics. In the case of high coal prices last year, it is still reducing its holdings in power generation; the degree of response may not be the same, the main factor is high coal prices, and those with coal resources will be more willing to invest; in addition, Coal enterprises are obviously more motivated to build power plants, and those with less coal are less motivated to build power plants;
7. The positioning of three 80 million: main energy or auxiliary positioning for new energy ?
Experts are more inclined to assist positioning, mainly the strong position of 30-60; in order to better adapt to the access of new energy, the gap is to play a supporting role; coal power reaches 4000-4500; the current coal price is abnormal;
8. What is the delivery cycle and confirmation cycle of the equipment?
In the case of smooth progress: it takes half a year to design and purchase the main engine, 2 years to start construction and pour concrete, and 2.5 years+ from approval to power generation; the main engine factory has a production delivery cycle of about 1 year, and the equipment must be delivered 1 year before production. ;If the order is centralized, it may grab resources: Boiler: After the start of construction, the installation will start in a few months, and the delivery time is longer than that of the whole group to start and debug;
9. The price may increase in the future, and the level of gross profit may recover? Territorial influence?
There are many people doing the price, and it may be high, but the price increase will not be very high. 10 years ago, the thermal power peak, the profit margin (gross profit margin 20%+), did not change much; region: there will be no obvious change, The influence of freight; pay more attention to “efficiency, quality, service”;
10. When the coal price is easy to rise and hard to fall: the landing situation of three 8Kw?
No accurate forecast has been issued; for each large thermal power project, each provincial branch is a company, feasibility study, and investment report must pass the investment decision meeting of the group, 8KW will be approved this year and next year, and 8KW will be guaranteed to be put into production in the next year; centralized approval in the second half of this year 8KW, which will not be put into production in the next year, there will be some overlap, if calculated, about 200 million will be added; it will double than the previous plan; 8Kw is the highest level of production in a single year in the past ten years;
11. Investment data: The investment of two hundred megawatts is about 7 billion?
If a single power plant is 200MW, if it is 80 million kilowatts, 40 power plants must be invested;
12. Supercritical carbon dioxide power generation?
At present, it is mainly steam cycle and carbon dioxide cycle control. Theoretically, the efficiency is higher, but it is still in the research and development stage, and it cannot be regarded as a mature generator set at present.
Q: What is the pace of thermal power investment in the next few years?
A: The country’s attitude towards thermal power has changed a lot. Previously, thermal power was not allowed, and the index card was very strict. It was within 1.1 billion at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, and within 1.3 billion kilowatts at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Electricity gap, an important means of new energy consumption. Last year, when there was a power shortage, the country’s focus was to control the price of coal, that is, to cover the proportion of the long-term association and increase the supply of coal. % of the load, but there is still a lack of electricity this summer, indicating that the installed capacity is actually insufficient, and the attitude towards thermal power has undergone a relatively large change. In July 2022, the national gap was less than 20 million kilowatts. At that time, the new target of 30 million kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan was proposed. At that time, it was considered a big change, but after August, the gap became larger and larger, and the biggest power gap was Exceeding 70 million kilowatts, the increment of 30 million is definitely not enough. Therefore, it is proposed later that a large number of thermal power units will be added every year in 22-24 years. In September, it is estimated that the gap will continue to increase in the next year, so it is adjusted to start construction this year. A large number of thermal power units, including coal-fired and gas-fired, are mainly coal-fired .
This year, the target has been issued, but it is very difficult to implement such a large-scale installed capacity in such a short period of time, including site selection, planning, etc., as well as who to invest in, because thermal power plants have been losing money since last year, and the losses are relatively large. Recently It took a few months for central enterprises to turn losses into profits, and local provincial enterprises still have relatively large losses, but no matter what, the general direction is definitely to use thermal power. In addition, various incentive mechanisms will be proposed for thermal power, such as capacity electricity prices. Capacity electricity prices are currently available in Shandong, but not in other places, but it is not ruled out that successive provinces will push them. Another example is flexibility transformation. If the index of thermal power installed capacity is not released, then the meaning of flexibility transformation will not be too great, because there is only so much capacity, and it has been changed almost at present, then pushing some incentive mechanisms will not work well. Most of the newly added units are ultra-supercritical units, which themselves require flexible units with deep adjustment capabilities. In the previous plan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, 150 million of the 180 million units were flexible units, that is, they have peak shaving capabilities themselves. . For more research summary, pay attention to Shenzhen Fortune Club
Q: Quantitative data on power shortage in the next two or three years?
A: In a normal year, an additional load of about 80 million is added, but this year the load has increased a lot. After orderly consumption of electricity in summer, it has increased by 140 million compared with last year, and the gap exceeds 70 million kilowatts. This winter, we will see if it is In the cold winter, the gap ranges from 30 million to 50 million. Next year, if we calculate the gap according to the normal increment of 80 million, there will be close to 100 million, and the next year will be the same level. In the future, the installed capacity of thermal power depends on the specific gap situation. It is difficult to say now. It may be increased or decreased.
Q: Will there be cases of rushing to install thermal power in order to obtain new energy indicators?
A: It used to say that new energy is allocated and stored, but now it is said that new energy is allocated to fire, which is mainly reflected in the large-scale scenery base, which means that the large-scale scenery base should be linked to the stock or the newly added thermal power. At present, there are no paper documents to contribute. If there is a policy, the power generation company will decide whether to grab the new energy indicator after measuring the cost of thermal power.
Q: What is the output coefficient of scenery measured by?
A: The output coefficient depends on whether it is short-term or long-term. The short-term is based on predictions. As mentioned earlier, there is a requirement for the accuracy of the prediction. Long-term, such as annual, wind power: 5% in summer, less than 10% in winter; photovoltaic: 10-15% in summer, very little in winter. Therefore , although a lot of new energy installed capacity has been added, the gap is actually increasing year by year, because last year only 2,800 thermal power plants were installed, and only more than 700 in the first half of this year, so the increase in effective power generation capacity is far from keeping up with the speed of load growth .
Q: How much space is there for stock flexibility and transformation?
A: At present, the units in most provinces can be deeply adjusted to 40%, and some units in the Three North Areas can reach 30%. However, the compensation mechanism for some provinces in the Three North Areas where the units are located has only two detailed rules, and there is no peak shaving auxiliary service market. Recycling The investment is very slow, so there may be a large part that has not been recovered yet, so if they are required to be lowered to 20% in the future, then the money must be doubled. For example, in Shanxi, the proportion of new energy sources is high, and the pressure of peak regulation is high, so only the units can be purchased from the spot. Market arbitrage on peak-to-valley spreads without additional compensation has failed to attract power plants for further flexibility retrofits. The deep adjustment capacity of Gansu units is 33% on average, Shanxi is about 38%, and Zhejiang has almost no units that can reach below 40%. Each province varies widely, but 40% is basically achieved in all provinces. It is mainly based on the needs of each province. The region must go in this direction.
Q: For provinces that have not issued incentive policies, will flexibility transformation make money?
A: Many provinces do not make money, so their enthusiasm is relatively poor. This mainly depends on the needs of the province. If there is demand, we will find various ways to encourage this flexible transformation, such as the policy of Gansu, but it does not allow everyone to make a lot of money, so it must be an incentive for everyone to transform. After that, it will continue for a few years, so that everyone can recover the cost plus a certain amount of income. If there is no such demand in the future, we will not use our brains here again. Every province has this idea.
Q: Is it possible that policies like Gansu will spread to other provinces?
A: Yes, it depends on whether the demand in this province is strong or not. Generally speaking, areas such as Gansu, North China, and Northwest China have a large installed capacity of new energy and will be larger in the future, so the pressure of consumption is relatively high. The urgency of energy consumption is relatively strong, followed by provinces in central China such as Henan, which are also actively developing new energy sources, and the pressure of consumption is gradually becoming more prominent. Finally, in East China and other regions, the main problem at present is the lack of electricity, so for the time being it should be There won’t be a lot of stress . However, it has a problem that this money needs to be paid by someone. At present, most provinces let new energy and users pay for it, and there is a regulation like Gansu, that is, the user side cannot exceed 1 cent per kilowatt-hour of electricity, so Gansu is probably full The annual electricity consumption is 100 billion yuan, and the total plate is controlled within 1 billion yuan. Then it is necessary to consider whether the apportioned person can bear so many auxiliary service peak-shaving costs. On the one hand, the electricity price cannot rise too much on the user side. In terms of new energy, it can’t bear too much, because new energy itself has already suffered, for example, 20% of the cost of energy storage, and as many provinces now require new energy to be leased, then the money must have been spent, and it can still be used. Inability to withstand thermal power flexibility needs to be considered.
Q: What is the current national peak shaving gap?
A: The rate of abandoning wind and light this year is still very low, because it is mainly due to lack of electricity, and the enthusiasm for buying electricity among provinces is very high. The decline is more severe, and there will be a slight abandonment of wind and light in the northeast and northwest in the past two months. For more research summary, pay attention to Shenzhen Fortune Club
Q: The new thermal power plan in the future is so big, so will the peak shaving gap not be so big?
A: The construction period of thermal power is 2 years. The units started in 24 years will not contribute to peak shaving capacity until 26 and 27. We estimate that there will be a shortage of power in the last two to three years. New energy and thermal power will be launched at the same time. The situation of new energy abandonment of scenery is serious, and the output of thermal power is suppressed.
Q: The 5% guarantee measures for the abandonment of wind and light rate?
A: 5% is a hard constraint, but if new energy participates in the electricity market, it will not be included in the calculation of abandoning wind and solar, so provinces rich in new energy resources are willing to push new energy into the electricity market. This is an assessment indicator, no penalty is imposed, and there is a total assessment score at the end of the year. The government level will lower the indicators to the provinces, such as power grid companies and power generation groups, and encourage these power grid companies to issue some market-oriented trading mechanisms to increase the flexible adjustment capacity of thermal power and the growth of energy storage installed capacity. Layer downward pressure conduction.
Q: The amount of pumped storage is currently planned. Although the construction period is relatively long, when all the planned amounts have been built in four or five years, can its peak shaving capacity meet the current amount of new energy ?
A: It is necessary to comprehensively consider pumped storage, flexible transformation of thermal power, etc. The goals and objectives are all for new energy . The current requirement for pumping and saving is quadrupled, and it will reach 120 million in 2030. This is the original target. The cost of pumping and saving last year is included in the transmission and distribution price for recovery. Therefore, the enthusiasm for pumping and saving is very high, and the IRR is 6.5%. , which may exceed this number. This number can be doubled to calculate its peak shaving capability, because it has positive and negative, and both up and down adjustments can be used for new energy. It is difficult to make accurate calculations
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