Please remember first: Watson creature driven by “three forces, two wheels and one core”. This is what I summed up and extracted, and I will often test it in the future. “Three Forces, Two Wheels and One Core” determines the thickness of the fundamentals and determines the bottom and height of the valuation.
With $ Watson Bio (SZ300142) $ , in view of the fact that in the past two years, Watson Bio has deployed new crown vaccines, especially MRNA vaccines, and funds from various sources have flocked, and because of the long clinical cycle and prudent approval and other reasons As a result, the MRNA vaccine has not been listed on the market. In addition, the optimistic expectations jointly created by the company and its shareholders are often delayed. After two roller coasters, the stock price has never risen again, and is completely controlled by the news and emotions of MRNA and other surrounding areas. , always hovering between 40-60, plus all kinds of people spread all kinds of true and false news in batches, and the stock price really fluctuated with the news, Watson seems to have become a news stock. Of course, this kind of situation, which is separated from the fundamentals and only depends on the trend of news gambling, is certainly not a good phenomenon.
Be prepared to spend some time and systematically analyze the texture and potential space of Watson’s biology. Do your best to lead back to fundamentals and investment logic.
I summed up, Watson Bio has always adhered to the three major competitiveness of “innovation + platform and industrialization ability + internationalization ability” to promote the company’s healthy and healthy development , with “pneumonia vaccine (mainly 13-valent) and HPV vaccine. (2 price mainly, 9 price relay)” is a two-wheel pipeline that promotes the company’s continuous growth of performance , with ” layout MRNA platform ” as the company’s core kinetic energy to break through the basic space, and build the company’s sustainable and breakthrough development in the future. “Force two wheels and one core” drive mode . “Three forces” determine the width and speed of Watson’s road ahead, “two wheels” determine the height of Watson’s valuation lower limit area, and “one core” determines whether Watson’s valuation can break through the traditional valuation lower limit area. The height of the upper bound area reached. I will make an analysis based on this, and tell all holders and latecomers in a superficial way, the development space of Watson Bio, which is the target of the secondary market, and the valuation trend, the lower limit and the upper limit of the valuation that everyone is most concerned about. region, and where the valuation potential can reach.
A. Three Forces: I summarize Watson’s innovation, platform and industrialization capabilities + internationalization capabilities as the core competitiveness that can promote its sustainable and healthy development. These three major competitiveness determine the width and direction of Watson’s future. The speed is not easy to look at separately.
In terms of innovation , it has basically formed a benign product pattern and R&D iteration of the mature generation, the market generation, the clinical generation, the R&D generation, and the forward-looking generation . (This rule can basically be applied to all innovation and technology companies, not only by his profitable and mature products, but also by his layout. The era of “one trick to eat the world” is gone forever. ) Mature products include 13- and 23-valent HPV single product, Hib, AC combination, ACYW135 polysaccharide, AC polysaccharide, DIP; the first-generation 2-valent HPV single product; the clinical first-generation 9-valent HPV phase III major single product, Meningitis combination, 4-valent influenza, DTaP-Hib quadruple, and the third phase of MRNA in the new crown vaccine is imminent, the carrier and protein phase 1/2, and the protein variant overseas phase 1/2; R&D generation includes and The preclinical IND of the MRNA variant vaccine in cooperation with Blue Magpie, the herpes zoster MR vaccine in cooperation with Aibo, and the respiratory syncytial virus MR vaccine in cooperation with Blue Magpie; the prospective generation is expected to be carried out in new adjuvants, cancer MR vaccines, etc. R&D or cooperation. Continued innovation can delay continuous products, especially mainstream large items, so as to ensure the continuous growth of performance without fault problems. In the future, there should be continuous surprises in the layout and cooperation of MR. 23 price + traditional price before 19 years, 13 price after 19 years, 12 price + 2 price in 22 years, 13 price + 2 price + 9 price in the future around 2026, and then to the future traditional platform pipeline Product + MR platform product.
In terms of platform and industrialization capabilities, if you have good R&D and good products, you must have good industrialization capabilities to keep up. Anyone who has done innovation or technology-based enterprises knows that many new products are very popular in laboratories and small test workshops. Good, but as soon as I get the industrialization workshop, there are various problems, such as the realization rate of product design parameters, the yield rate, the loss rate, the efficiency of production capacity release, and so on. Watson Bio has established a bacterial and viral vaccine technology and production platform (including polysaccharide, polysaccharide combination, Bacterial toxoids, viruses), recombinant protein technology and production platforms (yeast, CHO) with Shanghai Zerun and Yuxi Zerun as the main body, in cooperation with Aibo, Lanque and other MRNA technology enterprises, Yuxi Watson and subsequent new construction The mRNA technology and industrialization platform constructed by the base, as well as the recombinant adenovirus platform in cooperation with Tsinghua University and others. In order to promote the internationalization strategy, an international preparation center was designed and constructed in accordance with international standards. The industrialization and platform construction are complete, which can basically undertake the industrialization tasks of mainstream vaccines of various routes, and also provide a solid foundation for future cooperation with more and stronger vaccine technology-based enterprises.
In terms of internationalization capabilities , in 2020, it will achieve a sales breakthrough of 100 million yuan in 15 overseas countries and a breakthrough in exports in 23 years. In 2021, it will export to 17 countries and sign a 13-price cooperation agreement with Morocco. The first batch of stocking has been completed in the first quarter of 2022, and the second quarter is expected. Realize the first sales. In cooperation with the Gates Foundation, WHO’s PQ certification is progressing in an orderly manner. In my opinion, whether Watson’s internationalization can break through and whether it can enter the international leap-forward development stage mainly depends on whether the new crown MRNA vaccine can be launched in 2022, and whether it can be successfully launched in Indonesia, Mexico, and the Philippines. The registration, recruitment, and procedures in the clinical stage have gained initial popularity and familiarity with the competent authorities. If it can be used and promoted on the market, it will undoubtedly play a great role in promoting the entry of 13-price and 2-price into these countries. Then use Indonesia and the Philippines as springboards to promote the Southeast Asian market. The traditional vaccine market in Southeast Asia has reached nearly 4 billion US dollars in 21 years. Mexico and Brazil are used as springboards to promote the Central and South American markets, and Indonesian Muslim Halal certification is used to promote the Middle East. Morocco, Egypt Based on the promotion in Africa, the traditional vaccine market in Africa is 3 billion US dollars in 21 years. The penetration rate of vaccines in Europe and the United States is already very high and there are many multinational oligarchs. It is expected that Watson will not be the main direction of attack in the short and medium term.
B. Double rounds: pneumonia vaccine + HPV vaccine, pneumonia vaccine is mainly 13-valent, HPV is mainly 2-valent at this stage, and 9-valent will be launched in a few years and 2-valent will form a “stubble relay” situation. These two major single products firmly occupy the top two global vaccine sales, both domestic and overseas market space is large enough to allow Watson and his domestic and foreign competitors to work together on the same stage and contribute. The specific analysis will be carried out separately in the following sections, and will not be repeated. The two wheels are the foundation that determines Watson’s continuous transformation from strong to stronger.
C: One core: The reason for raising the MRNA platform to the position of core kinetic energy, aside from the advanced nature of the new generation of biotechnology he represents, for Watson, the success and market use of the MRNA new crown vaccine, one is the current stage The second is to represent the success of the MRNA platform. The third is to drive and greatly accelerate the internationalization process of 13 prices and 2 prices. Fourth, it can bring more partners to Watson in the future and bring geometric multiples. New products and performance, so this is the decisive factor for Watson to go from strong to great in the future.
Valuation is by no means a numerical value, but an interval. For the current Watson, there are two intervals. One is the normal valuation interval determined by the three forces and the two rounds. The speed of industrialization and the speed of internationalization determine the interval. The other is the valuation range determined by a nuclear breakthrough, and the time to market, promotion efforts, and scale of use of MRNA determine the height of this range. The valuation interval and changes in the interval determine that the stock price is definitely not a simple target price. Previously, I only gave a brief indication of the current situation.
In view of this, I will analyze and share the following five ABC series from time to time, and finally I will present a dynamic valuation model made for Watson, which is only used by those who find it useful. After that, keep updating:
“Three Forces, Two Wheels and One Core” Driven Watson’s Creature: The Origin” √
“Three Forces, Two Wheels and One Core”-Driven Watson Bio: How Much Room Is There for 13 Prices?
“Three Forces, Two Wheels and One Core”-Driven Watson Bio: How Much Potential Can HPV Have?
“Three Forces, Two Wheels and One Core”-Driven Watson Biology: What MRNA Platform Can Bring
“Summary of Watson Driven by “Three Forces, Two Wheels and One Core”: How wide and how far can Watson’s road go (dynamic valuation model)”
There are 158 discussions on this topic in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/3828846123/218605655
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.