[Transfer]: Questions and Answers about the New Crown Coexistence Group and the Clearing Group (Part 2)

Original link: https://wmdpd.com/zhuan-guan-yu-xin-guan-gong-cun-pai-yu-qing-ling-pai-de-wen-da-xia/

Also from the article of Shougong @Sustained Low Entropy column.

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Q: Some coexisting factions believe that insisting on the zero policy will put China in a state of lock-down, which is contrary to China’s national policy of opening up. How do you feel about this view?

A: This statement is not true. There are three main types of exchanges across borders: exchanges of people, exchanges of physical goods, and exchanges of information (transmitted by electronic devices). Information exchange is not affected by clearing. In terms of goods exchange, the initial stage of the epidemic did cause people to worry about excessive losses, but China’s foreign trade has grown beyond expectations in the past two years. Practice has shown that we have mastered a set of effective, resilient and efficient mechanisms that roughly match the zero-clearing policy in terms of the entry and exit of goods.

It is true that personnel exchanges are greatly affected. But a large part of the exchange of people is itself for the exchange of information and the exchange of goods. In the case of smooth exchange of information and goods, the necessity of some personnel exchanges is not high. After the epidemic, everyone knows that some offices do not necessarily need to be held in units, and many meetings can be turned into video conferences, etc. Therefore, we all know that information technology can reduce the necessity of personnel exchanges. Over the past two years, my country has developed quite well in many key areas that traditionally require a lot of personnel mobility to facilitate affairs, such as diplomacy, investment and service trade. Taking service trade as an example, you can check the statistics. The Ministry of Commerce: China’s total import and export of services in 2021 will increase by 16.1% year-on-year , especially if you look at the statistics after excluding travel services. This statistic not only shows the good momentum of the service trade, but also shows that the travel service itself, which serves the exchange of people, is not so important in the economic system (when this field tumbled, the situation in all other fields combined is very strong).

my country’s share in the world economy has continued to increase, and China has maintained close economic ties with foreign countries and its active influence on the world political stage has steadily increased. In this case, it is ignorant of the facts to think that clearing the country has led to the closure of the country.

Q: However, there are some losses in personnel exchanges that are difficult to make up for through smooth exchanges of information and goods. Such as international tourism, such as studying abroad, and so on.

A: It is true, but it does not affect the above overall judgment.

Take the international tourism industry as an example. Frankly speaking, the importance of transnational tourism in the economy is relatively low. And even if a coexistence policy is implemented now, the tourism industry will only recover somewhat and will fall far short of its pre-pandemic prosperity. Transnational tourism between various foreign countries has also been hit hard, hasn’t it?

Take studying abroad as an example. International students are far more tolerant of long entry-exit quarantine times than international tourists, so they are not hit as badly as tourism in this regard. You may wish to check the relevant reports yourself. In addition, if China’s economy or economic expectations are hit by the coexistence of the current liberalization of the zero-clearing policy, the economic foundation for families to support going abroad will also be hit. Considering China’s status as the number one engine of the world economy, if China’s economy goes wrong, the economies of developed countries will also be dragged down, and their ability to issue scholarships will also decline.

In short, after analyzing the gains and losses of industries that are more affected by cross-border human mobility, the results are not sufficient to overturn the overall calculation.

Q: If almost all countries in the world have moved or will move towards coexistence and only China insists on clearing it, will China go against the trend and become an isolated minority in the world?

A: There are indeed two trends here. Most people in the world are indeed moving towards the trend of coexistence, and China still insists on the small trend of clearing the minority. The future relationship between these two trends is nothing more than the following results.

One (less likely) outcome is that Chinese trends overwhelm foreign trends, with countries learning from China and turning to a resolute zero.

Another consequence is that after some time the foreign tide is seen to be correct under the new virus situation. At that time, China can also turn around. This has been discussed in detail in my previous answer. The point is that the price of moving later is something China can afford.

Another possibility is that China’s trend has finally failed, and the epidemic prevention has failed. In this regard, I also explained in my previous answer why even so, China should adhere to the zero policy at this stage.

Finally, there is a prospect that I think is very likely, that is, the trend of both China and foreign countries will exist for a long time, and each insists on not transforming each other. But this will almost certainly give China a long-term competitive advantage over foreign countries, isn’t it very good for China?

As for the minority issue, this is not a reasonable criterion for judging whether a certain policy is good or bad, especially in an abnormal situation. When major countries in Asia and Europe fell into full-scale war in the pre-World War II period, the United States was able to enjoy homeland security. At that time, the United States was an isolated minority on the issue of war and peace. When old Europe took the lead in breaking through the industrial revolution, the vast majority of human beings were still in the stage of agriculture and animal husbandry, and Europeans were also an isolated minority. Now we are in a similarly abnormal phase. Whether it is China’s system or specific anti-epidemic policies, its competitive advantages in many aspects are already obvious. The status of this minority should not only cause China’s psychological pressure, but should enhance China’s confidence.

Q: There are many medical experts who believe that coexistence should be tried. What do you think?

A: My reasoning above is not justified by professional medical knowledge. If they hold, that’s enough of an argument in favor of a zero policy. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t require medical knowledge to refute it.

Specific to the views of the medical profession. You can of course find a lot of people in the health sector who support coexistence, but I can also find a lot of people in the health sector who argue that there should be zero if you want. Every time you play a big card, the clearing faction can also play a big card.

If you think about it further, many aspects such as economic problems, political organization problems and the psychological problems of the people involved in the policy of zeroing and coexistence are far beyond the scope of the medical field. Even within medicine, we should be soberly aware of the authoritative boundaries of medical workers, for example: there is no clear conclusion to the origin of the new crown (of course there are many political factors); there is no specific medicine for the treatment of the new crown; the vaccine for the new crown has certain The effect is far from enough to end the epidemic; the new mutation of the new coronavirus is not something that experts can predict with high confidence; the predictions of many influential people in the medical field in 2020 and even 2021 do not match the later facts; There is no stable consensus on some important issues, etc. In addition, after having a large amount of data around the world, a large part of the content of the virus that has existed for a certain period of time is probably closer to statistics.

In conclusion, there is still a long way to go from valuing knowledge in the medical community to making the right decisions.

Q: If the foreign coexistence policy has not been a major success, should we continue the zero policy indefinitely?

Answer: Yes. Not only that, even if the virulence of the new coronavirus is really reduced so that a coexistence policy can be adopted, it is entirely possible that new infectious diseases will emerge in the short to medium term. There may also be a third and fourth major infectious disease. Our country must be prepared to fight the epidemic indefinitely.

Q: Why do you think there are likely to be multiple rounds of new infectious diseases?

A: There are two factors here.

The first is that the source of the new crown is not clear , and it may be deeply affected by factors such as climate change and the expansion of human activities. Considering that other serious new infectious diseases such as SARS have appeared since the 21st century, if the above factors are caused, it is entirely possible that more new diseases will appear in the future.

The second factor is what I think is the most important factor. Even if the new crown itself has no artificial factors in it, new viruses with certain artificial factors may appear in the future. After all, the impact of the new crown is too great, and major countries in the world are bound to devote a large part of their resources to the research of biological warfare. Even if there is no intention to harm others, the bottom-line thinking of preventing others has to do this. The current world situation is a very unbalanced situation. The contradictions between the major powers are fierce, and the relationship between the major powers is far from being straightened out. The new crown has brought about changes in the international situation that some major powers are extremely reluctant to see. In addition, the potential power of biological weapons demonstrated by the new crown objectively inspired many countries that cannot develop nuclear weapons for various reasons: They can bypass nuclear restrictions and have weapons of mass destruction. Terrorist groups would of course be similarly inspired. These all lead to a great increase in the risk of artificial or semi-artificial virus warfare in the future.

Taking these factors into account, maintaining a strong political will and organizational capacity is far more strategic than what is needed to deal with the current Covid-19 pandemic . I previously suggested establishing a standing epidemic prevention army, not only for the new crown, but also to deal with other diseases after the new crown.

Q: If the situation you mentioned occurs, how can human beings get out of the ongoing pandemic?

A: I think it is necessary to straighten out the relations between major countries first. The most important thing is that the United States should accept its future position as the world’s second largest and be willing to join the new world governance system with China at its core. On this basis, it is possible to achieve a sharp reduction in the contradictions between the world’s military powers and to jointly control virus research around the world with the backing of force. After that, artificial and semi-artificial attacks can be strongly contained, and global resources can be integrated to deal with new viruses in nature that may be caused by factors such as climate change. Of course, this will not happen in the short term.

Q: If various epidemics, including the new crown, persist for a long time, and China is forced to adopt a zero-zero policy for a long time, then this is a very frightening or even unacceptable prospect for many citizens. The golden age before 2019 will never come back, and the rest of my life will be lived in some kind of dark age. This is an undeniably heavy psychological blow. How does the Zero Party respond?

A: The most essential and powerful response to this group psychology problem is that adopting a coexistence policy is likely not to lead to a dark end, but to a darker failure. Therefore, no matter how painful it is now, the lesser of the two evils should be avoided.

Of course, under the above principles, we still have a lot to do in terms of publicity.

Q: What specific propaganda measures can be adopted to make the people more calmly accept the indefinite pandemic and reset policies?

A: There are age groups here. For children, they have been living in the epidemic era since childhood, and there is an opportunity to adapt from an early age. It is more difficult for the main body of the population in the prime of life. Everyone still remembers the golden age before 2019, and it is very likely that they will not be able to go back in the next few decades.

This of course requires changes in many propaganda-related industries in the whole society, such as innovation in the entertainment industry and so on. But at the most macro level, a great historical story needs to be told. Those of us in prime time should realize that we may not be facing a dark age, but may be the beginning of an age of great civilization.

Throughout the history of the development of human civilization, it is full of so-called “going against the sky”. Defying the sky here does not refer to changing the physical laws of nature, but refers to studying and using the laws to do things that nature does not have. For hundreds of millions of years, mammals have obtained food through gathering and predation, and have never obtained a stable food source through cultivation. But tens of thousands of years ago, our ancestors did it. For millions of years, primitive humans have never had the ability to control floods, but in the past few thousand years, generations of ancestors have managed water by either blocking or guiding. In the process, a lot of wealth was consumed, and sometimes the dams collapsed, causing greater losses than in the natural state. But from the perspective of big history, the continuous struggle of human beings has finally domesticated the rivers and lakes in the main livable areas of the world.

If we are facing an era of extremely large and long-term epidemics with unpredictable deadlines, then mainland China should be the ark of the earth, and the Chinese leader should be the great Yu of mankind. The prime-age people of today, who never forget the golden age before 2019, are the first-generation heroic ancestors of the great human beings who have gradually resisted the domestication of various diseases and epidemics in the eyes of future generations . And our actual sacrifices are far less than those of our ancestors whom we consider heroes. It’s a grand narrative that makes sense.

Of course, in order to tell this grand narrative, the premise is to adhere to the zero-clearing policy. If we adopt the policy of coexistence or even lay flat in the face of the era of the pandemic that we do not know when it will end, it will be difficult to find the same level of positive energy encouragement in terms of group psychology. Facing a long-term pandemic with such a mental state means pessimism, confusion and malaise that cannot be saved in the foreseeable future.

Q: At present, the Coexistence faction has many voices and certain influence. How should the clearing party deal with this?

A: The Coexistence faction has power, but the Clearing faction is far stronger than the Coexistence faction . The Battle of Shanghai further assured that the Coexistence faction would be hit hard for at least two years. If we take various measures in the past two years to substantially improve the zero-clearing work capacity, it is entirely possible to overwhelm the coexisting factions in public opinion for a long time. Even if the Coexistence faction grows louder after two or three years without external conditions, they still have a long way to go to overthrow the dominance of the Clearing faction.

In this case, there is no need for the clearing party to be overly nervous. Even if there are conspiracy groups in the Coexistence faction, they should mainly deal with them internally and inform small circles.

Also, don’t expect to convert coexistence by reasoning and presenting facts. There are few successful examples in human history to eliminate the idea of ​​opposition factions by reasoning and presenting facts. The clearing faction does not coexist with the virus, but it must coexist with the coexisting faction. The truth must be made clear, the emotions must be channeled, the work must be improved, and the steering wheel must be grasped to death.

Q: Do you have any final additions about coexistence and zeroing?

A: Whether it is the current clearing or the possible coexistence in the future, the leadership must be in the hands of the current clearing faction. The reason is simple: the current clearing faction has proved its strong organizational ability, while the current coexistence faction has proved its lack of thinking ability.

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