U.S. investment experts warn U.S. economy remains ‘shaky’

Source: Sina Finance

Roschelle pointed out that addressing the supply side of the economy is the only way to solve it.

Mitch Roschelle, founding partner at Macro Trends Advisors LLC, warned Sunday that while many economists and analysts viewed the April jobs report as positive, the U.S. economy was still in a “shaky” state.

The U.S. economy posted solid job growth in April, data on Friday showed, a sign that the labor market remains strong despite headwinds including rising interest rates, soaring inflation, worsening labor shortages and fears of an economic slowdown.

Employers added 428,000 jobs in April, beating the 391,000 jobs forecast by economists at Refinitiv, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report on Friday. This marks the 12th consecutive month that job growth has exceeded 400,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, the lowest level since February 2020.

Mitch Roschelle acknowledged that “the unemployment rate is going down” with more than 400,000 jobs added, but noted that “one of the reasons the unemployment rate is down is that our labor force participation rate is down” and that “it’s actually the first time in three months. decline, which means fewer people are entering the labor market.”

Roschelle pointed to data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday, which showed a record 11.5 million job openings in the U.S. in March. Roschelle said:

So for some reason we have a distorted labor market where there are open jobs and we can’t find people for them, when you’re not really fully employed, we don’t, you really don’t have that strong economy, This means we may not be able to weather this inflationary storm as much as we would like.

Roschelle also pointed to Labor Department data, which showed on Friday that average hourly earnings rose 5.5% in March from a year earlier, down slightly from 5.6% the previous month. The data came amid a surge in inflation, which hit a 40-year high in March.

Last month, the Labor Department said the consumer price index (CPI), which measures a range of goods including gasoline, health care, groceries and rent, rose 8.5% in March from a year earlier, the fastest pace since December 1981. speed up. Inflation reached 8.9%. Prices rose 1.2% in a month from February, the largest monthly gain since 2005. Inflation data for April will be released on Wednesday.

Roschelle argued Sunday:

I think the Fed is denying we have an inflation problem and saying it’s just temporary for too long.

When it comes to printing money, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Mint and Printing in Washington has printed trillions of dollars to help us through the Covid-19 crisis, but they are late in acknowledging that we have to stop the process of printing money.

He then pointed to the factors that contribute to inflation in terms of fiscal policy. Roschelle said:

I think we are continuing to stimulate the demand side of the economy and the recent nearly $2 trillion rescue bill was unnecessary. It just keeps pumping money into the economy, and quite simply, too much money chasing too little is what causes inflation.

We still haven’t solved the supply side of the economy, but that’s the only way to fix it, ” he continued, noting that ” it’s really not the Fed’s job ” and that Congress needs to act to “try to find a way” to fix and stimulate The supply side of the economy, stop stimulating demand.”


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