gist
Industrial background: The carbon neutrality goal of the United States is set in 2050. To achieve this goal, the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity needs to reach 1050-1570GW to meet 44%-45% of electricity demand. Thanks to the “shale gas revolution,” the United States is self-sufficient in fossil energy and a net export of natural gas. On the one hand, the United States has resource advantages in traditional energy, and on the other hand, there are internal differences between the two parties in terms of energy routes (the Republican Party pays more attention to expanding the production of traditional energy, and the Democratic Party supports the development of alternative energy sources). There are still variables in the energy route of the United States.
Demand side: Constrained by the power grid, local consumption is the mainstay
Demand Stimulation Policies: With the federal ITC as the background, the states implement policies according to their local conditions. The federal ITC allows project parties to deduct a fixed percentage of the cost of solar system installations from federal taxes. It has experienced several delays. The current policy is that the subsidy ratio will be reduced from 26% to 22% after 22 years, and to 10% in 2023 (excluding households). use). If the BBB Act is passed, it can be extended for 10 years. The policies of each state are centered on RPS, supplemented by state-level ITC subsidies, net metering policies, etc., which continue to drive the demand for photovoltaic installations.
Household use: Model innovation, subsidy decline stimulates demand for home storage. In 2021, the new installed capacity of household photovoltaics in the United States will be 4.2GW, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, of which the California and PJM power market regions are more important sources of increment. A variety of business models have been derived from household photovoltaics in the United States, and leading companies such as Sunrun, Sunnova, and Sunpower have been born. With the gradual withdrawal of net metering policies in various states, the demand for household energy storage is expected to increase rapidly.
Non-residential: Divided into community photovoltaics and industrial and commercial photovoltaics, concentrated in areas with high electricity prices. Community photovoltaics are mainly aimed at low- and middle-income groups, which are greatly affected by government plans. In 2021, the newly installed capacity will be 0.96GW; industrial and commercial photovoltaics are concentrated in California and the Northeast where the industry is more developed, and the newly installed capacity will be 1.44GW in 2021.
Ground power station: RPS open circuit, spontaneous demand follow-up, supporting energy storage effect is better. Since 2020, ground-based power plants have accounted for about 70-80% of the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the United States, and the driving factor is shifting from mandatory factors such as RPS to voluntary ones. The new contracts and installed capacity over the years are obviously driven by the ITC policy. In 2021, the new installed capacity of ground-mounted photovoltaic power stations in the United States will be 17GW, and the compound growth rate from 2018 (6.2GW) to 2021 will be about 40%. The combination of ground-based power stations and electrochemical energy storage is becoming a trend, driving a high increase in front-of-the-meter energy storage in the United States.
Supply side: special competitive environment under trade barriers
Local supply: As of January 2022, the United States still has production capacity of silicon materials, crystalline silicon modules, thin-film modules and inverters, mainly in California, the Great Lakes region and the southeast. Representative companies include Hemlock, RECSilicon, Wacker, FirstSolar, etc. .
Overseas supply: In 2021, the United States imported 23.6GW of photovoltaic modules, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, mainly from Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, and Cambodia; in 2021, the United States imported 2.6GW of photovoltaic cells, a year-on-year increase of 17%, mainly from South Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam .
China’s photovoltaic industry policy: The United States has implemented “double anti-dumping” against China since 2011, and then experienced two “dual anti-dumping”, Southeast Asia anti-circumvention investigation (ongoing), as well as 201 tariffs, 301 tariffs, Xinjiang-related temporary detention orders WRO And so on, trying to support the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry.
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