Executive Summary
Since 2022, the prices of phosphate chemicals at home and abroad have risen sharply: Since 2022, both the phosphate rock and the downstream phosphate chemical sectors have risen sharply. As of the close on July 1, among the 33 tertiary sub-sectors of SW Basic Chemicals, SW Phosphate Fertilizers and Phosphorus Chemicals had an annual increase or decrease of 38.24%, ranking second in the industry. From the price point of view, as of July 1, the average domestic phosphate rock market price was 1,010 yuan/ton, a new high in the past three years, up 57% from the beginning of 2022, and the average overseas phosphate rock price was 255.17 US dollars/ton, higher than Compared with the average price in 2019, the domestic phosphate rock price increased by 147%, and the overseas average price of phosphate rock increased by 138%. On the basis of the increase in the price of phosphate rock, the prices of related phosphorus chemical products have risen significantly. On July 1, the domestic prices of monoammonium phosphate and diamine phosphate were 4,690 yuan/ton and 4,250 yuan/ton, respectively, compared with the beginning of 2022. Up 63% and 23%, while overseas, monoammonium phosphate and diamine phosphate prices were $1,020/ton and $980/ton, up 21% and 19% from the beginning of 2022, respectively.
Phosphate rock is the most upstream of phosphorus chemical industry, and the growth of downstream fertilizer and new energy fields will drive the demand for phosphate rock. On the one hand, grain prices have risen since 2020, and the enthusiasm for planting has increased, driving the demand for fertilizers to increase. On the other hand, as a cathode material that can be used in new energy vehicles, lithium iron phosphate will also benefit from the booming new energy vehicle market, thereby driving the demand for phosphate rock. Under the rapid growth of the new energy market, the penetration rate of retail sales of new energy vehicles has rapidly increased. The penetration rate in 2020 is only 5.8%, the penetration rate in 2021 will increase to 14.8%, and it will continue to increase to 23.4% from January to May 2022. . Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, domestic oil prices have risen for ten consecutive years, and oil prices in some areas have entered the era of ten yuan, which has promoted the public’s demand for new energy vehicles. Despite the impact of the epidemic in 2022, the development momentum of my country’s new energy vehicles has been different from the past, and the penetration rate is rapidly increasing, which will drive the demand for phosphate rock.
Phosphate rock is a non-renewable resource, and there are significant differences between different countries. my country contributes 39% of the output with 4.5% of the reserves. According to the statistics of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the total global reserves of phosphate rock in 2021 will be 71 billion tons, mainly concentrated in ten countries such as Morocco and Western Sahara, China, Algeria, and Syria, accounting for 94.99% of global reserves, of which 70.36% of phosphate rock is distributed in Morocco. my country’s phosphate rock reserves are 3.2 billion tons, accounting for 4.50% of the reserves, ranking second in the world. The distribution of phosphate rock output is also relatively concentrated. In 2021, the global output of phosphate rock will be about 220 million tons, and my country’s output will be about 85 million tons, accounting for 39.06% of the total output. The output of phosphate rock ranks among the top four in the world, accounting for 73.06% of the total global output of phosphate rock.
Morocco and Saudi Arabia can contribute more phosphate rock, and Russian phosphorus chemical products may flow into China. As the country with the largest reserves in the world, Morocco has abundant phosphate rock resources, and OCP, which is in charge of the country’s phosphate rock, is increasing investment and expansion in recent years; Saudi Arabia has relatively high reserves and production of phosphate rock, and the country is looking for oil and gas In addition to the third economic pillar, it may also contribute more phosphorus chemical products. Russia’s phosphate fertilizer and other products have been affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and China’s domestic demand for phosphate rock is increasing and resources are limited, and China may import more products from Russia.
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