Last year, I wrote an article on the replacement of domestic equipment. Web link
The data at that time were all from 2020. The equipment data for 2021 and the expected data for 2022 have all come out. Then we will combine the latest data to see the future space of these listed equipment stocks.
Once again, equipment stocks are super growth stocks in China. The increase in capital expenditure and the increase in domestic replacement rate can make many equipment stocks explosive growth! Don’t look at foreign capital expenditure, and we do not The same! We need to enhance our country’s chip manufacturing capabilities. Even if there is a surplus of chips in the world, we will unswervingly expand counter-cyclically. South Korea’s Samsung Hynix has become the world’s most powerful storage factory through counter-cyclical expansion. , Changxin Changcun is also developed by counter-cyclical expansion. Don’t believe anyone who says that excess chips will affect the expansion of our country’s foundries!
Semi’s latest forecast is that the scale of global front-end equipment in 2022 will be US$109 billion, of which the scale of domestically-owned fabs in mainland China (that is, excluding domestically built factories such as TSMC and Samsung) will be US$17 billion, which is 110 billion yuan. It will maintain a compound growth rate of about 30% in the next two years. Let’s not consider those foreign-funded factories in the mainland, let’s take a look at the space for equipment stocks.
According to the proportion of various equipment, the approximate scale of various equipment is:
North Huachuang Space
The business covers a wide range, and the semiconductor business is expected to grow from 6 billion in 21 years to 18 billion in 24 years. In addition to the other 6 billion semiconductor business, the total revenue is expected to reach 24 billion.
China Micro Company Space
The space of the etching machine is 47.5 billion in 24 years, and the performance of China Microelectronics is expected to increase from 2 billion in 21 to 8.5 billion in 24 (18% market share), plus 1 billion in other businesses, plus 1 billion in Taiwan and abroad, total revenue It is expected to exceed 10 billion.
Tuojing Technology Space
pecvd+ald accounts for 40% of the thin film deposition share, with a space of 20 billion in 24 years. Tuojing’s performance is expected to increase from 700 million in 21 to 4 billion in 24 (20% market share). From the market share, we can see After 24 years there is still a lot of room. And breaking into the Taiwan market is also likely to happen this year.
Core source micro space
Glue development is exclusive, with a space of 10 billion in 24 years, Xinyuan Micro is expected to change from 500 million in 21 to 2.5 billion in 24 (25% market share), plus 300 million in cleaning business, and 2.8 billion in revenue in 24 years
Huahai Qingke Space
CMP has a space of 7.6 billion in 24 years, and it will be replaced by domestically produced with China Electronics Technology. The performance is expected to change from 700 million in 21 to 3 billion in 24 (40% market share), plus other consumables 500 million, 24 years of revenue 3.5 billion
This has a lot to do with market sentiment, product competitiveness, and room for future growth. In the next two years, in the bull market, the PS will be given 30, and in the bear market, the PS will be given 10. The lowest market value in 24 years in my opinion:
North Huachuang: ps10, 240 billion
China Micro Company: ps15, 150 billion
Tuojing Technology: ps12, 48 billion
Core Source Micro: ps12, 30 billion
Huahai Qingke: ps10, 35 billion
If the replacement speed is fast, the performance is still elastic, and if there is a big bull market, the valuation is also elastic.
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