Which is more important between expectations and performance

The truth may be very different from what most people think. Rather than market bias and institutional incompetence, it is better to admit that this is the nature of the investment market.

Let’s talk about oil and shipping stocks. I have done COSCO SHIPPING Energy, China Merchants Steamship and China Merchants South Oil some time ago. The entry point is perfect. I bought it precisely near the lowest point after the first wave of correction, and left after taking 20 or 30 points of profit. , there are still 10,000 shares of China Merchants Steamship, and less than 10,000 shares of Haineng and Nanyou. The number of Hai Neng holdings has doubled so far. Cosco Haite has not studied why it is so strong recently. I remember that when the second wave started, Haineng and ships went to the daily limit, and Nanyou was close to the daily limit. It seems that during that time, Xingxin began to lighten up COSCO SHIPPING Holdings. I remember that I also communicated with him about the second wave of oil transportation. He The reply can’t be chasing oil transportation now. To be honest, I didn’t expect that Haineng doubled in a short period of time. If the valuation is calculated by calculator, it is hard to imagine that Haineng will rise to 70 billion or 80 billion so quickly, and it will be possible to touch 100 billion soon. At the beginning of 200 billion, Haikong makes more than 100 billion a year, can Haineng reach 20 billion profit at its peak? The biggest difference between them is that Haineng’s expectations have not been fulfilled, but Haikong’s profit has been realized, that is to say, Haikong will go uphill again and Haikong will start to go downhill. If Haineng rises a little more and Haikong falls again, will there be a Haikong? It is unlikely that the market value is greater than that of Haikong, but it is possible for Haineng to add a ship, but the combined profits of the two may not even be one-third of Haikong. Is this reasonable? In fact, it is reasonable for a certain period of time, that is, during a special time when oil transportation is in a booming cycle and ocean shipping is in a declining cycle.

The same is true for lithium mines and silicon and their middle and lower reaches. Expectations are better than short-term huge profits. It can also be understood that mainstream funds pay more attention to future unrealized profits, and those that have been cashed will be discarded and will be considered Unsustainable. In fact, this is true in the medium and long term. This is why the valuation of the mid and downstream is much higher than that of the upstream. Most retail investors look at the present, while mainstream funds look at the future. Facts have proved that only those who have a long-term vision for the future have the right to set prices. Just say myself, I understand this truth better than anyone else, but I still can’t go for targets like Sungrow and GoodWe. This is the weakness of human nature. Just like switching from COSCO SHIPPING Control to COSCO SHIPPING Energy some time ago, ask yourself, how many people could do it at that time?

The price of photovoltaic silicon is likely to go down next year and the year after, and it is likely to fall a lot. Just look at the price increase of Daquan Energy some time ago, and you will know that this is certain. After the price of silicon material falls, the production capacity of the middle and lower reaches will usher in explosive growth, which is the main logic of why the photovoltaic equipment is strong. Like Goodway, it has directly reached a valuation of one or two hundred times or even higher.

In fact, the first two years of the lithium mine were not the same as the current energy storage inverters. Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium increased several times a year at that time. Have you seen their profits or even revenue? How much? Now that the profits of the lithium mine have been realized, it is difficult for the stock price to reach a new high. The recent performance has increased several times or ten times, but the stock price has been high and sideways for more than a year. That is, the difference between expectations and performance.

The mainstream view in the market is that the high price of lithium ore will appear in the middle of next year, and then it will start a downward cycle. There are differences on how much the highest point is million. In fact, I don’t think the highest point is the most important thing. The main thing is that they believe that the turning point is coming soon. This is the fundamental reason for suppressing the valuation of lithium mines. Wanhou is about to start falling and be slapped in the face. It is not good to say whether he will be slapped again this time. I think the logic of lithium ore is still very hard and very hard. There is no shortage of mines, but there is a lack of good mines. What’s more terrible is that the expansion cycle is very long, which is several times the expansion time of midstream lithium batteries. The reason why the price keeps exceeding expectations. The other line is energy storage, which is still in its infancy. When energy storage begins to explode, lithium mines will become even more scarce. It is possible to see 1 million lithium mines by then. The future is the oil of the past, and everyone will see listed companies with a market value of trillions. Our A-share Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium may be the current PetroChina and CNOOC. Of course, this is in the medium and long term, and we have to wait for the emergence of the second growth curve, the explosion of energy storage.

The most certain and explosive opportunities in the second half of the year and next year may be the opportunities brought about by the expansion of photovoltaic and lithium battery production, equipment materials, etc. Although some of them have been hyped, they can still participate in the callback. There will also be batches of doubling shares in two years.

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