I just did a live broadcast yesterday, talking about how ordinary investors understand companies, markets, valuations and the length of their holdings. I saw a communication letter from Li Jie to his fund investors this morning. Feeling inspired, write something.
After four bear markets, Li Jie (Crystal Fly Swatter) suffered the most tragic moment in his investment career of more than ten years. Li Jie wrote a communication letter to his fund investors, explaining the reasons for the fund’s withdrawal and his own reflection. Combined with Li Jie’s letter, I would like to express my views.
First of all, my prediction of the market situation in 2022 is the same as that of Li Jie. “The economy is worse, liquidity is better, and policy hedging is stronger.” That said, there could be a bear market in 2022, but it’s hard to be more bearish than 2018. But so far the situation has exceeded our estimates.
It can be seen from this incident that in fact, none of us have the ability to predict the short-term and medium-term market trends with high probability. As investors, we all need to acknowledge this.
The second point is that Li Jie’s fund has basically been fully held in recent years. Including 2021, when many stocks are in the historical 100% valuation percentile. Li Jie’s trading strategy is to wait for a comprehensive and systematic bull market to lighten his positions.
On this point, I will not evaluate whether Li Jie’s operation is appropriate. What I want to say is that in the structural bull market in 2021, the valuations of some stocks far exceed the highs of the 2015 bull market, and the valuation percentile has reached 100%. According to my investment system, it must be reduced. However, because it is a structural bull market, it cannot be ruled out that Li Jie’s holdings have not reached the point where he thinks it is absolutely overvalued.
But my suggestion for ordinary investors is to reduce some positions at a high level. This is not necessarily to make more money in the market (of course it does not rule out that doing so does make money in the market), which makes us in the ups and downs of the market, there will be A better attitude will lead to a more calm response. Not reducing positions at high levels is a kind of greed, a kind of greed that does not match the ability of ordinary investors.
The third point is one of Li Jie’s two heavyweight stocks, which is a leader in the electronics industry. Encountered a black swan and fell sharply. I have had two views on this stock since 2019. The first is that I don’t understand his growth. It’s normal about this, it’s the reason for the circle of competence. I can’t understand it, but Li Jie can understand it. So I didn’t buy it, he bought it. The second point is that he has geopolitical risks. So I don’t touch it. I saw that Li Jie conducted in-depth research on him and believed that the geopolitical risks were manageable.
I don’t agree with Li Jie’s opinion that he has encountered a black swan. This is not a black swan, this is a grey rhino. This is not without warning. He is traceable.
When discussing what happened to Li Jie in the leading electronics stocks, I don’t mean to say that Li Jie made a mistake in his judgment. It means that as an influential fund manager in the investment circle, anyone who can discuss the company’s prospects with the company’s CEO may misread the company’s prospects.
In fact, what I want to say further is that many CEOs of listed companies do not clearly see the prospects of their own companies. As ordinary investors, we need to admit that we lack the ability to recognize that companies that are looking good today will do well in the next 5 years. For us, on the one hand, we try to choose white horse stocks that are particularly white. I gave up one of my longest-held financial stocks last year, not because it was necessarily a problem. It’s just that I suspect he might have a problem. I am reluctant to take on uncertainty.
When we admit that our cognitive ability to the enterprise is limited, we will not think about living and dying with such and such a great enterprise. Greatness often represents the past, and the future is always confusing.
When we admit that we have limited knowledge about the business, and when stocks are valued higher, we are not overly greedy. Instead, it is time to lighten up positions to cash in on earnings.
Admit that you are an ordinary person, one of the 99% of the population. At this time, we may find that investing can be a happy thing.
Again, I recommend Erma’s book “Noise and Insight”, a stock market survival rule for ordinary investing.
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