This quarterly report is very simple. The company has begun to enter the rising cycle that a normal innovative pharmaceutical company should enter. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue will be about 935 million, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and the net profit will be about 237 million, a year-on-year increase of 53%; deducting non-net profit About 182 million, an increase of about 23%. Revenue and deducted non-profits have basically started to grow simultaneously. According to the forecast that the annual revenue is 4 times the revenue of the first quarter, the annual revenue is about 3.74 billion, and the deducted non-profit is about 3-4 times of the first quarter. Profit 550-730 million. The net profit margin is between 15-19%. Starting from this year, the income statement can normally reflect the business status of the company for one year.
From the understanding of the pipeline at the afternoon shareholders’ meeting, the company has about 6 INDs this year , and the company’s products at the end of the year are 2 listed patent drugs, 2 NDAs, 2 Pro-NDAs, 1 Pro-3 phase, and 9 clinical trials. Phase 2, there are 1 US clinical and 1 UK clinical, and 2 biosimilars are in Phase 2-3. Hengrui’s current situation is that there are 10 listed patented drugs, 4 NDAs, and 10 3-phase drugs. According to the 24 products corresponding to the current market value of more than 210 billion yuan, one product corresponds to a market value of 9 billion yuan.
Let’s talk about the keynote first, Xinlitai will go on so slowly, as long as there is no obvious overestimation, for example, the valuation of a product after the third phase has reached more than 20 billion, this company can take the pension and reach the level of Hengrui. The state of 10 patented drugs, 4 NDAs, and 10 3-phases can be seen at some point in the future, or it can be understood that the market value of more than 210 billion can be seen.
Just look at the situation in the first quarter of this year:
1. At the shareholders meeting, it was said that the sales volume of Xinlitan is expected to increase by 60-70% this year. According to the price reduction of 30% throughout the year, the overall sales will increase by about 20%. , more than 400 million in the fourth quarter, and about 1.4 billion in the whole year. Next year is expected to grow by another 50% from this base.
2. Taijia and generic drugs completed more than 600 million yuan in the first quarter. This part of the whole year is between 2.2-2.6 billion. The overall part will be about 300 million more than last year, and this part will be maintained next year. After the teriparatide water injection was approved for the market in April, it is expected to complete 40 million in the whole year, plus about 40 million for powder injection. The two will strive for about 100 million this year. If the water injection or powder injection enters the medical insurance next year, these two The variety may provide an increment of 100-400 million next year. If even one variety is included in the medical insurance, the growth rate of this part will be considerable next year.
3. The equipment will continue to introduce strategic investment in May, and it is expected to be listed next year. If it can’t be listed, it will take another 1-2 years to make a profit of about 100 million. It can be listed according to how many times the price-earnings ratio of traditional profitable companies is, depending on the time of listing. Now, once this part of assets is listed, it will have a valuation of at least 4-5 billion, and now the equipment part has no valuation.
Summary: This year should be a relatively smooth year. All indicators are positive. Whether it is revenue, profit or pipeline, the progress is obvious.
2. Pipeline:
According to the situation of the shareholders meeting, the pipeline progress slightly exceeded expectations. Several products were mentioned for the first time. Personally, I expected 4 INDs this year, but the actual situation may have 6 INDs. If there are 6 INDs next year, the company will enter the clinical products. There may be more than 20. Even if these assets have only a 50% probability of drug delivery, there will be more than 10 drugs on the market in a few years.
3. Other
1. R&D expenses: capitalized 140 million yuan in the first quarter, and more than 200 million yuan in expenses. The company’s R&D investment this year will also increase by more than 20% year-on-year. Last year, it was about 800 million yuan. 27-30%, and costing accounts for the bulk, which also shows from the side that there are many projects, and there may be more than 20 preclinical projects this year.
2. The inflow of operating cash flow is a little more than 900 million yuan, which is slightly lower than the revenue. Last year, I was impressed that the cash flow was more than 300 million yuan more than the profit. There may be a delay in billing, which is a normal phenomenon.
4. Valuation:
As mentioned earlier, Hengrui has obtained a valuation of 9 billion yuan for a product with 10 listed patented drugs, 4 NDAs and 10 Phase 3 products. Some small pharmaceutical companies that have just been listed have a drug in NDA or If there is no revenue in the listing, the general valuation is between 4 billion and 5 billion. The single product of Hengrui can be twice as high as these companies because it already has some revenue or the company has the ability to expand these products ( Generic drugs also contributed 3-50 billion market value). Xinlitai is now a listed patent drug, 1 NDA and 4 Phase 3 products. These 6 products now correspond to a market value of 24 billion, which is probably the case of these companies with no revenue. As time goes by, 3 It will gradually enter the NDA in the future, and the NDA will also be listed. If the listed company gradually increases its revenue, it will always slowly rush to the valuation corresponding to a product of a company like Hengrui. In fact, this is also a certainty . .
There are 48 discussions on this topic in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/8960894035/217359561
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.