event:
China CDFG released a performance report. In 2022, the operating income will be 54.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.52%; the operating profit will be 7.605 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.63%; the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.95%. Among them, the 22Q4 revenue was 15.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%; the net profit attributable to the parent was 397 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66%.
Overall performance fell short of expectations.
Recovery in 2023:
Since the beginning of this year, the company’s store sales have shown obvious signs of recovery. So far, operating income has achieved substantial growth year-on-year and month-on-month. The company will seize the opportunity of the current comprehensive recovery of consumption and the liberalization of entry-exit policies, continuously improve the quality of duty-free products and services, take multiple measures to release the potential of duty-free consumption, and provide consumers with more convenient and high-quality duty-free shopping services. Make good use of the stimulating role of consumption in economic recovery.
Fund holdings:
In the four seasons report of public offering funds, there are 600+ funds with heavy positions and free positions. Because CDF has a large weight, there are a large number of passive funds with heavy positions. The popularity of CDF is still very high (passive reasons, but also style reasons).
For example, top consumer fund managers such as Liu Yanchun, Xie Zhiyu, and Hu Xinwei are free from heavy positions, and long-term value investment or balanced fund managers such as Ji Wenhua and Qu Yang are free from heavy positions.
(Holds the largest fund in China CDFG)
(holds the largest fund manager in China CDFG)
(Among active funds, the fund manager whose holdings account for the highest proportion of the fund’s market value)
Due to the large capital, to a certain extent, the flexibility of A-share exemption is not so great. However, due to the relatively small proportion of trading volume in Hong Kong stocks, it can be seen that there is still great flexibility during the Spring Festival. However, after the southbound funds opened, there was an outflow of pre-holiday game funds.
However, 2023 is destined to be a year of fundamental reversal. According to recent exchanges, fund managers pay more attention to the company, but there may not be many operations. If the data for the Spring Festival is acceptable, the data for the next few months will be particularly critical.
However, the continuous negative line in the last week has reflected that 22Q4 is not as good as expected.
This week’s sell-side research: for reference…
Sub-reception capacity: During the Spring Festival, the passenger flow rebounded rapidly, reaching 40,000 to 50,000 people per day, highlighting the strong demand for duty-free consumption and relatively crowded stores. At present, the first phase and No. 2 land are capped, and the third phase plans to cover an area of more than 200 mu. After that, the first, second and third phases will be operated at the same time, which can meet the needs of passenger reception capacity.
Xinhaigang: The data of the Spring Festival makes the company very confident. After the opening of Cartier and YSL, customers are booming. Explain that CDFG can attract customers by making good products, competitive prices, and high-quality services
Top luxury negotiation progress: Gucci and Prada, the new seaport, will be opened one after another, and other top luxury related negotiations and cooperation are proceeding according to the original plan.
Response to the opening of outbound travel: the company has planned the layout of port stores and city stores in advance before the opening, and has been paying attention to the trends of other duty-free markets such as South Korea. I think that as long as you do a good job in the three aspects of product, service and price, you don’t have to worry about it.
Price system: The low price in the past three years is a special measure in a special period, but it has also received strong support from suppliers, and the normal price system/normal operation will be gradually restored in the future
Return of consumption: It is not terrible to let go abroad. CDFG has airport duty-free channels. The company is more concerned about how to maximize the benefits of airport channels and city duty-free channels. As a Chinese company, CDFG knows how to serve Chinese consumers best.
Supplier Terms: As the world’s largest duty-free supplier, CDFG has the strongest bargaining power. Looking at duty-free products such as fragrances and high-quality goods, CDFG’s gross profit margin is the best, and China’s huge consumer scale is the source of CDFG’s bargaining power.
$China CDF(SH601888)$ $Wangfujing(SH600859)$
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