Demand space for high-end liquor

In 2012-13, due to the consumption of Sangong and the plasticizer incident, it is assumed that the high-end liquor at that time was not collected mainly because of drinking demand. In 2012, Kweichow Moutai sold 26,000 tons. In 2013, Kweichow Moutai sold 25,000 tons. In that year, serial wine accounted for about 6% of revenue. Considering the low price of serial wine, it is assumed that the volume of this part of serial wine is roughly equal to Wuliangye and 1573. Starting from 25,000 tons in 2012, the GDP growth rate over the past 10 years is about 8%. Assuming that the demand for high-end liquor for self-drinking is twice as fast as the GDP growth rate, it will be 16%, and it will increase by 4.4 times in 10 years, and it will be about 110,000 tons today.

This year, the sales volume of Moutai is estimated to be in the early 40,000 tons, Wuliangye is in the early 30,000 tons, 15.73 is about 10,000 tons, and other high-end products such as liquor are fragmented, equivalent to 90,000 tons. The shortfall is about 20,000 tons. 90,000 tons, equivalent to 190 million bottles, is about 50 million people with high net worth, and each person drinks less than 4 bottles per year.

In 2012, Moutai, Guizhou, sold 26,000 tons


In 2013, Moutai, Guizhou, sold 25,000 tons


So understand, is it reliable?

$Kweichow Moutai(SH600519)$ $Wuliangye(SZ000858)$ $Luzhou Laojiao(SZ000568)$

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