Large aircraft: the crown of modern industry, the domestic passenger aircraft C919 is about to enter the market
1) Large aircraft generally refer to transport aircraft with a gross take-off weight exceeding 100 tons. Boeing of the United States and Airbus of Europe have long monopolized almost the global civil aviation mainline passenger aircraft market, and the combined delivery in 2021 will account for 92% of the global total. 2) China’s development of domestic large aircraft is of great significance in driving economic development and ensuring national security. COMAC was established in 2008. The three products ARJ21, C919 and CR929 have achieved full coverage of the regional and trunk lines, striving to break the existing pattern and realize the localization of civil aviation aircraft. 3) In May 2022, China Eastern announced plans to introduce C919, and the first flight test of the first C919 to be delivered to China Eastern was successfully completed. C919 is expected to start delivery by the end of 2022, and the 100 billion market is slowly opening.
Market space: The market share of domestic models is gradually increasing, and the market space is expected to exceed 2 trillion in the next 20 years
1) China’s passenger aircraft market: According to COMAC’s forecast, China’s passenger aircraft fleet will reach 9,957 by 2040, accounting for 22% of the world’s total, making it the world’s largest single aviation market. In the next 20 years, China will receive 9,084 civil aviation aircraft, with a total market value of over 9 trillion yuan. 2) Domestic passenger aircraft market: ARJ21 has entered mass production, C919 is expected to be delivered within this year, and CR929 is expected to be delivered within 2030. With the gradual increase in the market share of domestic models, it is estimated that about 3,000 domestic passenger aircraft will be delivered in the next 20 years, with a total value exceeding RMB 2 trillion, and the industry compound growth rate will exceed 20%.
Large aircraft industry chain: from design and development to operation and maintenance, benefiting from the improvement of localization
1) The large aircraft industry chain includes: design and development, advanced manufacturing (new materials, parts, airframe manufacturing, airborne systems, final assembly and integration), operation and maintenance. At present, C919 suppliers account for a relatively high proportion of Chinese and foreign-invested/joint ventures. In the future, China’s aviation manufacturing industry chain will benefit from the dual drive of “increased market share of domestic complete aircraft + deepened localization of the supply chain”. 2) New materials: C919 body structure aluminum alloy accounts for 65%, composite materials 12%, titanium alloy 9%, high-strength steel 7%. The proportion of CR929 composite materials will be greatly increased to more than 50%. Pay attention to the progress of localization of raw materials, and be optimistic about investment opportunities in composite materials. 3) Parts: including forging and casting parts, machined parts, standard parts, electronic components, etc., with high added value. It is more significant to be optimistic about the leaders in sub-sectors such as AVIC Heavy Machinery, and to enjoy the effect of increasing the volume of domestic civil aircraft. 4) Airframe manufacturing: It is mainly undertaken by the main engine factories of the aviation industry, accounting for 36% of the value. At present, the degree of localization is the highest, and the growth certainty is strong. The focus is on AVIC XAC, the leader of military and civilian large aircraft, and the value of C919 is high. 5) Airborne system: the value of the whole machine accounts for about 30%. The localization rate is low, the product profit margin is high, and there is a lot of room for growth in the process of localization. I am optimistic about AVIC, the leader in avionics systems. 6) Power unit: The value of the whole machine accounts for about 22%. It is currently supported by CFM International. The domestic commercial aircraft engine is expected to start in high volume in 2030.
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