core point
Environmental protection: Facing the policy cycle, renewable resources enter the “double carbon” fast lane
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, under the guidance of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality policies, various major energy conservation and environmental protection policies involving energy saving, consumption reduction, emission reduction and other major energy conservation and environmental protection policies will usher in an intensive release period, and the environmental protection industry will fully enjoy the policy Dividends, especially in the field of renewable resources with significant carbon reduction effect. According to the “14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development”, the output value of the resource recycling industry will reach 5 trillion yuan by 2025. Among them, we estimate that by 2025, my country’s metal hazardous waste recycling market space will exceed 140 billion, and the output value of recycled plastics will reach 160 billion; due to the EU’s mandatory biodiesel addition policy, UCO will continue to be in short supply.
Public use: the environmental value of new energy is prominent, leading the construction of a safe and low-carbon energy system
According to the “14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System”, we estimate that the installed capacity of wind power and light will remain at a relatively high level during the 14th Five-Year Plan: in 2025, the installed capacity of wind power will reach 525 million kilowatts, with an average annual increase of 49GW in 22-25; The installed capacity will reach 643 million kilowatts, with an average annual increase of 84GW in 22-25. Recently, relevant departments have successively issued major policies such as the “14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development”, which further clarified the leading role of new energy sources such as wind and solar in the energy system, and refined the development goals of various types of renewable energy; anchored to 2030 The annual total installed capacity of wind and light will reach the goal of more than 1.2 billion kilowatts; build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. New renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control; establish a green energy consumption mechanism to endow renewable energy with environmental value; enhance the power grid’s new energy consumption capacity and accelerate the implementation of supporting policies such as solving subsidy arrears. Promote the sustainable and high-quality development of new energy power generation operations.
Investment strategy: focus on new energy, select high-quality renewable resources track
At present, the PB of public utilities is 1.70 times, and the PE2 of the environmental protection industry is 20 times. Compared with the CSI 300 valuation premium level, it is in the channel of recovery from the bottom area. The environmental protection industry welcomes the “double carbon” strong policy cycle; “One of the important measures of the target, the current time point has high investment value. Utilities: In the short term, the National Energy Administration expects that the new grid-connected photovoltaic capacity will reach about 108GW this year, a year-on-year increase of 95.9%. The substantial growth in new installed capacity throughout the year is expected to continue to promote the increase in the amount of electricity sold. New energy operators and hydropower, coal power Operators transitioning to new energy power generation are expected to fully benefit. Environmental protection: By 2025, the output value of the resource recycling industry will reach 5 trillion yuan. The utilization of renewable resources can effectively reduce emissions, reduce environmental pollution and damage, and at the same time have strong resource attributes and considerable economic value. It is recommended to focus on mining metal resources, recycled plastics, lithium battery recycling, kitchen and other organic wastes and other related fields with large market value and high prosperity.
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