Hong Kong stocks have known for a long time | U.S. inflation has risen again, and European and American markets are betting that the Fed may raise interest rates in a hurry; social financing growth rebounded significantly in May

[Today’s headlines]

U.S. inflation rises again , European and American markets bet on the Fed or rush to raise interest rates

In May, the U.S. CPI exceeded the previous high and recorded a year-on-year record of 8.6%, hitting a new high in nearly 40 years; the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI fell slightly under the influence of the base, but it was still higher than expected. Geopolitical conflicts pushed up energy prices and the rebound in durable goods prices was the main reason.

The short-term U.S. inflation situation in the future is hard to be optimistic. With the current supply-side cost shock pushing up inflation and demand-side durable goods prices continuing to expand, the necessity and feasibility of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates intensively and intensively are on the rise. We will continue to raise interest rates by at least 50BP in June and July, and the possibility of raising interest rates by 75BP is not ruled out. Before the interest rate hike is implemented in June, 10Y US bond yields are still facing upward pressure.

The People’s Bank of China announced: RMB loans increased by nearly 2 times from the previous month in May, and social financing growth rebounded significantly

On June 10, the People’s Bank of China announced the financial data and social financing statistics for May. The data shows that the growth rate of RMB loans and the increase in the scale of social financing rebounded significantly in May. Data show that RMB loans increased by 1.89 trillion yuan in May, much higher than April’s 645.4 billion yuan, an increase of 392 billion yuan year-on-year; the increase in social financing scale was 2.79 trillion yuan, 839.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year. On the other hand, at the end of May, broad money (M2) increased by 11.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate hit a new high this year.

【General Outlook】

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday , the Nasdaq fell more than 3% , and airport stocks are not easy at this stage

Last weekend, the three major US stock indexes closed down across the board. The Dow fell 2.73% to 31392.79 points, the S&P 500 fell 2.91% to 3900.86 points, and the Nasdaq fell 3.52% to 11340.02 points. Last week, the Dow fell 4.58%, the S&P 500 fell 5.05%, and the Nasdaq fell 5.6%. All three major U.S. stock indexes posted their biggest weekly losses since the week ended Jan. 21. The U.S. CPI exceeded expectations, and Wall Street began to discuss whether the Fed would raise interest rates by 75 basis points. The ADR index of Hong Kong stocks fell, on a proportional basis, to close at 21,386 points, down 419.80 points or 1.96% from the close in Hong Kong.

CICC Strategy said that considering that liquidity easing is still increasing, the overall market recovery space is not significant, and market sentiment may have some inertia to improve, it believes that the short-term A-share market may still be expected to continue to recover amid volatility, but throughout the second half of the year. Look, under the influence of internal and external uncertainties, the market path may not be unilateral upward. Structurally, it is recommended to focus on “stable” in the second half of the year. Zhitong Finance APP believes that the trend of the Hang Seng Technology Index will directly affect the overall trend of Hong Kong stocks. After in-depth adjustment in the early stage, there is not much room for downside. In the context of the stabilization of A-shares, it is not easy to air Hong Kong stocks at this stage.

【Hot spot preview】

It is rumored that Tesla (TSLA.US) participated in the subscription of Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) Hong Kong stock IPO? Officials say “uninformed”

A few days ago, Tianqi Lithium Industry announced that it will issue no more than about 425 million overseas listed foreign shares, with a par value of 1 yuan per share, all of which are ordinary shares. There are market rumors that Tesla will also participate in the Tianqi Lithium Hong Kong IPO subscription this time. In this regard, the media asked Tesla for confirmation, and the other party only said that it is “unclear and has no response.”

This weekend, Ambassador Xiao Qian, Chinese Ambassador to Australia, visited the Tianqi Lithium Quinana lithium hydroxide processing plant project in Perth. Ambassador Xiao listened carefully to Liu Ying, President of Tianqi Lithium Australia Energy Co., Ltd., introduced the development history and current operation of the project, and encouraged enterprises to continue to push forward the project in a solid manner. Contribute to economic and trade cooperation and bilateral relations. The Chinese embassy and consulates in Australia support Chinese enterprises in “going out” and are willing to provide necessary assistance to Chinese-funded enterprises in Australia. Tianqi Lithium’s Quinana plant in Western Australia was built in 2016 and put into operation in 2021. It is a world-leading battery-grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate plant.

Market news: Tencent (00700) acquires US$264m stake in Indian e-commerce company Flipkart

According to Economictimes, Tencent bought a stake in Flipkart worth $264 million through its European subsidiary. Singapore-based e-commerce company Flipkart operates only in India, according to Zhitong Finance APP.

Flipkart was last valued at $37.6 billion, according to data disclosed in July 2021, when it raised $3.6 billion in a round led by Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC, CPP Investments, SoftBank Vision Fund and Walmart.

In April 2022, people familiar with the matter said today that Flipkart plans to go public in the United States in 2023. In addition, Flipkart has internally raised its IPO (initial public offering) valuation by about 1/3 to $60 billion to $70 billion.

Founded in 2007 by two former Amazon employees, Sachin Bansal and Binny Bansal, Flipkart is India’s largest e-commerce retailer.

The General Office of the State Council issued the implementation plan for the renovation and renovation of urban gas pipelines and other aging

The “Implementation Plan” deploys key work from four aspects. One is to clarify the task. Clarify the scope of renovation and renovation objects, reasonably determine renovation and renovation standards, organize and carry out census of urban gas pipelines and facilities, and formulate aging renovation plans for local urban gas pipelines. The second is to speed up the organization and implementation. Strengthen overall planning and coordination, accelerate project implementation, simultaneously promote digital, networked, and intelligent construction, and strengthen pipeline and facility operation and maintenance. The third is to increase policy support. Fulfill the responsibilities of professional operating units for investment, establish a reasonable sharing mechanism for funds, increase financial support and financing guarantees, and implement tax reduction and exemption policies. The fourth is to improve supporting measures. Accelerate project approval, do a good job in price management, strengthen technical standard support, strengthen market governance and supervision, promote the rule of law and standardized management, and strengthen organizational guarantees.

Guotai Junan believes that the current valuation of City Gas Company has fully reflected the impact of upstream price increases and high LNG prices on City Gas Company’s gross margin, and the natural gas industry still has room for continuous growth under the dual-carbon background. The relevant Hong Kong stocks involved include: China Gas (00384), China Resources Gas (01193), ENN Energy (02688), Tianlun Gas (01600), Kunlun Energy (00135), etc.

Electronic cigarettes: high growth in overseas markets, domestic license approval is imminent

On June 15, 2022, the national unified e-cigarette transaction management platform will be officially launched. At that time, various e-cigarette market players, such as nicotine manufacturers for e-cigarettes, atomizer manufacturers, e-cigarette manufacturers, e-cigarette wholesale companies, and e-cigarette retail business entities that have obtained tobacco monopoly licenses in accordance with the law, should gradually go to the platform for transactions and transactions. settlement.

According to statistics, my country’s e-cigarette exports will reach 138.3 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year growth rate of 180% against the backdrop of the negative impact of the global epidemic; my country’s domestic retail sales are estimated to be 19.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%. Among them, the first export category is disposable electronic cigarette products, accounting for 65%, followed by open and closed products.

According to the Blue Hole New Consumer Report, as of May 27, the official website of the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration shows that 14 e-cigarette companies have applied for the issuance of tobacco monopoly production licenses, all of which are currently accepted. Tianfeng Securities believes that the domestic market is expected to usher in the landing and issuance of several production licenses from June to August.

The relevant Hong Kong stocks involved include: China Bolton (03318), Huabao International (00336), Smol International (06969), BYD Electronics (00285), etc.

[Single stocks are sunny]

LK Technology (00558) : direct beneficiary of Tesla’s expansion

Tesla plans to produce more than 71,000 vehicles at its Shanghai Gigafactory in June, according to an internal production memo. According to data from the China Passenger Transport Association, in April and May this year, Tesla’s Shanghai plant produced a total of 44,300 vehicles. In addition to the expected production in June, Tesla’s Shanghai plant produced about 115,300 vehicles in the second quarter. Data show that in the first quarter of this year, Tesla’s Shanghai plant produced a total of 178,900 vehicles. Huaxi Securities said that the rapid expansion of Tesla’s Shanghai factory production capacity is expected to drive the performance growth curve of industry chain companies to become steeper.

Tianfeng Securities recently stated that it is expected that the market space of integrated die-casting will usher in a rapid increase from 2023, and the market space of domestic integrated die-casting is expected to reach 27.2 billion by 2025.

The die-casting machine Giga Press used by Tesla is produced by LK Technology and covers an area of ​​only about 100 square meters, which can save 35% of the floor space compared to production equipment using traditional stamping and welding processes. According to media reports, IDRA Group is about to launch a 9,000-ton high-pressure Giga Press die-casting machine. Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed that the machine will be used to produce the Tesla Cybertruck starting in 2023. It is reported that in 2008, IDRA Group was acquired by LK Group and officially became a member of LK Group.

GCL Technology (03800): Silicon material prices continue to rise

Since the beginning of this year, a new round of price increases in silicon material prices has lasted longer than previously optimistic expectations. According to the news from the Silicon Industry Branch last week, the domestic single crystal re-feeding price transaction range reached a maximum of 270,000 yuan / ton, and the price continued to rise. In addition, according to PV Infolink data, the price of silicon materials in overseas origins continues to have a premium, even higher than the price of 280,000 yuan / ton.

The media learned from industry insiders that considering the strong demand side, it is more likely that the price of silicon materials will reach a new high in the near future. In the third quarter, new production capacities such as GCL, Xinte and Tongwei are expected to be released. By then, the price of silicon materials may ease to some extent, but the actual decline will be limited during the year. Under the blessing of favorable policies and overseas exports, the photovoltaic industry chain is cautiously improving.

Industry analysts believe that photovoltaics are significantly supported by the demand side. According to the latest data from the National Energy Administration, as of the end of May, there were 121GW of photovoltaic power generation projects under construction. It is estimated that the new photovoltaic power generation will be connected to the grid by 108GW in the whole year, an increase of 95.9% over the previous year’s actual grid-connected capacity.

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