“We don’t do research on macro trends.” “Not only that, but we haven’t been able to make much profit recently from one of the biggest commodity booms in history.”
Buffett and Munger, two old partners, once said at the 2006 shareholder meeting.
After 16 years, this time Buffett and Munger seem to “stand with the macro”?
What to buy in the macro year?
According to Berkshire’s first-quarter report, about 66% of the fair value of Berkshire’s stock holdings is concentrated in Apple (AAPL.US) , Bank of America (BAC.US) , and American Express (AXP. US)$ and Chevron on; energy company Chevron (CVX.US)$ was promoted to the fourth-largest holding, valued at $25.9 billion.
In Berkshire’s latest 13F disclosure announcement, it currently holds a 23.5% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) , worth $12.1 billion. And, the buy price on May 2-3 was between $56-59.
At present, Buffett has bought about 38 billion US dollars of oil and gas energy stocks. According to the stock selection criteria of Laoba, it seems that there is a long-term optimistic trend for the fundamentals of oil.
And, judging from the statement at the shareholders’ meeting, Buffett felt that “I am very happy to buy this company, which is a company that can produce at least 11 million barrels of oil a day, and is looking for 11 million barrels of oil in the United States. It is very valuable to the world. We also want to keep American industry and industry going.”
“Oil will be a very precious resource in the future. But no one agreed with my ideas before, and I didn’t think it bothered me. There is nothing wrong with my ideas. Anyway, the current views may not be very normal. ”
Munger said, “The world’s jobs may now be on the oil companies.”
Both of them’s “190-year-old” cognition seems to imply that oil companies have ushered in a new cycle.
A new profit cycle?
The latest financial report performance of the two companies also highlights the investment vision of the stock gods.
According to the first quarterly report, Occidental Petroleum ushered in the best financial report record in history, with revenue increasing by 57% year-on-year to US$8.34 billion, and net profit attributable to the parent reaching a record US$4.67 billion, turning losses into profits year-on-year ;
Quarterly free cash flow of $3.3 billion was also an all-time high, and adjusted EPS of $2.12 beat consensus estimates.
Energy heavyweight Chevron’s first-quarter financial report was also very eye-catching, with revenue up 68.34% year-on-year to $52.314 billion, and net profit attributable to the parent increased by 354.54% year-on-year to $6.259 billion.
Moreover, both companies have promised to increase their efforts to repurchase shares and enhance dividends this year, which is equivalent to having “winned twice”.
In the face of the rare big inflation in 40 years, Buffett’s “method” is to bet on oil companies.
As the conclusion, again to apply the question and answer of Balao’s 2006 shareholders’ meeting:
“It’s a bit of a macro for us. We’re really just at that level of zero — you know, we’re thinking more about whether people are going to keep eating candy, whether we can raise prices next year and so on.”
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