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Hydrogen energy has a clear strategic position, and grasps the pace of cost reduction and parity in the entire industry chain. The attributes and strategic position of hydrogen energy have been clarified. As a clean and efficient secondary energy, it will help the deep decarbonization of high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries. The development of my country’s hydrogen energy industry is in the early stage, and the planning requirements focus on breaking through the “stuck neck” technology and expanding the scale of hydrogen production from renewable energy. /year. The hydrogen energy industry is expected to accelerate its development. We conduct an economic analysis on the key links of the entire industry chain, in order to grasp the current cost status of each link in the industry chain, the pace of cost reduction and the direction with the most potential for parity.
Hydrogen production: By-produced hydrogen has both carbon reduction and cost advantages, and green hydrogen has great potential for long-term cost reduction. There are three mainstream hydrogen production paths. The purity of hydrogen production restricts the application. The hydrogen used in fuel cells requires high-purity, low-sulfur, and low-carbon hydrogen. Hydrogen production by electrolysis of water & propane dehydrogenation can reach 99.999% hydrogen purity. 1) Fossil energy hydrogen production technology is mature, and the cost is low-carbon and high: a) Coal-to-hydrogen: when the coal price is 450 yuan/ton, the hydrogen production cost is about 10 yuan/kg, of which the coal cost accounts for 39%, considering carbon capture The post cost is about 16 yuan/kg; b) hydrogen production from natural gas: when the natural gas cost is 2.5 yuan/m³, the hydrogen production cost is about 15 yuan/kg, of which the natural gas cost accounts for 77%, and the cost after carbon capture is considered to be about 18 yuan/kg . 2) Industrial by-product hydrogen has both emission reduction and economic advantages: the cost of coke oven gas by-product hydrogen is between 9-15 yuan/kg, and the cost of hydrogen production in chlor-alkali chemical industry, light hydrocarbon utilization, synthesis of ammonia alcohol and other processes is between 13-22 Yuan/kg, of which the purification cost is about 0.1-0.7 Yuan/Nm³. 3) The cost of electrolyzed water is still high, waiting for the price of wind and electricity to fall: alkaline electrolyzed water has been industrialized. When the electricity price is 0.4 yuan/kWh, the cost of hydrogen production is about 32 yuan/kg, of which the electricity cost accounts for 70%. At 0.15 yuan/degree, green hydrogen 18 yuan/kg is parity with blue hydrogen.
Storage and transportation: The cost of gaseous storage and transportation is about 8 yuan/kg, which is the mainstream. Pipeline & liquid hydrogen transportation is expected to break through the key bottleneck of large-scale transportation. 1) Gaseous storage and transportation of long-tube trailers: The technology is mature. When the hydrogen source distance is 100km, the storage and transportation cost of a 20Mpa long-tube trailer is about 7.79 yuan/kg, which is sensitive to distance and has high economical short-distance transportation. 2) Gaseous pipeline transportation: The cost is concentrated in the early pipeline construction, and the focus is on promoting the hydrogen blending & pure hydrogen pilot of natural gas pipelines. 3) Low temperature liquid storage and transportation: The potential direction of large-scale transportation, the technology is immature, the current difficulty lies in the large investment in equipment and high energy consumption for liquefaction.
Refueling: Large-scale cost reduction & policy subsidies drive the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, and the current refueling cost is about 11 yuan/kg. The initial investment of a hydrogen refueling station with a daily hydrogen refueling capacity of 500kg at 35Mpa is about 15 million yuan, the filling cost under full-load operation is about 11.33 yuan/kg, and the terminal price is about 55 yuan/kg (including subsidies). Localization and large-scale construction of core equipment The total cost has been reduced, and it is expected to drop to 8.73 yuan/kg in 2025.
Application: Hydrogen fuel heavy trucks have a cost advantage over fuel heavy trucks under the support of subsidies. With the cost reduction of fuel cell systems and the decline in hydrogen refueling prices, it is expected that hydrogen fuel heavy trucks will be parity with electric heavy trucks in 2026. 1) Status quo economic analysis: Due to the high initial purchase cost of hydrogen fuel cell buses and logistics vehicles, it is difficult for fuel vehicles to be affordable in the entire life cycle. The current policy of “replacing subsidies with rewards” tends to favor heavy trucks. Under the subsidy of up to 924,000 yuan, the purchase cost of hydrogen fuel heavy trucks is close to that of fuel heavy trucks, and the operation and maintenance cost is 90% of that of fuel trucks. achieve parity. 2) Cost reduction forecast: The fuel cell system cost accounts for 53% of the hydrogen fuel heavy truck, and the hydrogen storage system accounts for 17%. With the localization and scale of core equipment such as proton exchange membranes and gas diffusion layers, the cost of hydrogen fuel vehicles will drop rapidly. We assume that the cost of fuel cells/hydrogen storage systems will decrease by 25%/7% annually from 2022 to 2025, and the average annual decrease of 20%/5% from 2025 to 2030. Subsidies will gradually decline, and hydrogen prices and hydrogen consumption will decrease year by year. It is estimated that in 2026 Considering that the hydrogen fuel heavy truck under the initial subsidy can be parity with the electric heavy truck.
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