Prices: Steel prices fell this week. This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 material thread was 4950 yuan/ton, -0.2% compared with last week, and the price of hot rolled 3.0mm was 5110 yuan/ton, -0.8% compared with last week. The price of raw materials was differentiated this week. The price of iron ore at the port rose compared with last week; the price of coke rose compared with last week; the price of scrap steel fell compared with last week.
Profits: Rebar profits fell this week. In terms of long-term processes, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is -153 yuan/ton, -233 yuan/ton and -180 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short-term processes, the profit of electric furnace steel this week fell slightly from the previous week.
Output and inventory: This week, the output of rebar increased week-on-week, the five steel factories’ warehouses increased week-on-week, and the social warehouses fell week-on-week. In terms of output, the output of the five major steel varieties this week was 9.55 million tons, an increase of 194,000 tons week-on-week. Among them, construction steel output increased by 72,200 tons week-on-week, plate output increased by 121,800 tons week-on-week, and rebar production increased by 43,100 tons this week to 301,000 tons. tons. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long- and short-process rebar this week was 2,651,100 tons and 358,900 tons, respectively, +47,800 tons and -04,700 tons week-on-week. In terms of inventory, the total social inventory of the five major steel varieties this week fell by 359,200 tons to 17.2169 million tons, and the total inventory of steel mills was 6.211 million tons, an increase of 286,900 tons from the previous week. An increase of 154,700 tons. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3.0838 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 248,600 tons, and the daily average transaction value of construction steel this week is 164,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8%.
Investment suggestion: The epidemic will disrupt downstream steel consumption in the short term, but with the gradual advancement of the steady growth policy, the strength of steel demand is expected to gradually recover. This week, the epidemic situation in some parts of the country has worsened, affecting steel consumption. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3.0838 million tons, down 248,600 tons from the previous week. On the supply side, with the end of the production restriction in the northern heating season, the blast furnace operating rate increased this week, but under the background of “double carbon”, there is limited room for steel production to increase. In terms of inventory, social inventory continued to decline. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the factory inventory has rebounded. Overall, although the short-term epidemic has disrupted steel consumption, with the gradual development of the steady growth policy and the superimposed consumption peak season, the fundamentals of steel are expected to gradually improve.
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