New Oriental Online Revelation

Recently, the selection of Dongfang has suddenly exploded, and the stock price of New Oriental Online has increased by 5 times in a week.

The current mainstream valuation logic in the market, daily disclosure gmv* (1-34% average return rate of Douyin) * 365 days * profit rate * 25 times pe. The profit margin is based on the caliber of an expert (currently 15% to 20% deduction points, taxes and fees account for half, and currently 2 is actually available), but now Douyin has given a lot of public domain traffic support, and this part will cost money in the future. Everyone suddenly ignores this. I don’t know if there will be 5% in the long run. This is not the focus of today’s discussion.

Then start the volume, all kinds of experts call on the stage together, the volume will be disclosed to the seller in the live broadcast room, and then everyone will restore it to the year.

This is a typical A-share boom game that spills over to Hong Kong stocks, and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect funds are the main players involved. I looked at the sky at the beginning and the hours later. I don’t know if I looked at the minutes. Then I restored the prosperity in a very short time to years and gave a long-term valuation.

This is of course an obvious bubble, a group of very smart people doing ridiculous things together, no one cares how long this business can be established and run, as long as it runs away before the heat (prosperity) goes down, it is the winner.

Of course, many experts will be born here. Ningde and these companies have missed their performance, and they have known it early, even knowing the specific numbers, and then they anticipated your expectations and started various repetitions.

So rolled like this, where is our way? Nietzsche divided people into three types: camels, lions, and babies. Camels play other people’s games, lions play their own games, babies have infinite possibilities, and they can’t reach the realm of babies, but we You can choose to be a lion, flip the table, choose a stupid way to play, withstand fluctuations, return to the long-term, and take advantage of our global allocation.

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