Once again regret to quit Tencent


In the past week, we have exited Tecent in a large amount (the largest exit was recorded earlier at HKD 570 and switched to BYD and renewable energy, and this part of the fund received a 40% crossover return), and our Tecent holdings are now very small. .

Over the past ten years, the income of the investment has diluted the cost, and the account calculation shows that there are fewer and fewer shares in the position, recording an abnormally high return.


Think of the phrase we all like to say: “If I invested in that house back then, if I bet on that stock back then, it would cost hundreds of millions to get it now…” If the two words are the most valuable.

This article describes two reasons for further lightening.

The international macro drives down into the tunnel, which will not be traversable in a few months, and may last for a year or two in time (it was the Pushkin poet and not the Tolstoy writer who decided this time). The Hang Seng Index and Tecent are linked together. If we are not optimistic about the Hang Seng Index, we can reduce our positions in Hong Kong banks and utilities with a dividend payout ratio of 5%. The other is fundamentals, the policy is coy, and the new version number is deliberately distributed to a few small companies to show the anti-monopoly style; even if a new version number is issued to Tecent and Nets in the future, I am afraid that the potential game of the current explosion will be where it needs to be. The “Puzzle Positive Energy” game. The only positive factor in the fundamentals is internationalization, including the internationalization of King Glory. The amount of incremental growth still needs to be confirmed by the financial report. I wish success. The most core and long-term negative factor is to see that the policy has really weakened the game habits of the population that has already dropped sharply in number, so that these children will habitually lose the growth engine of the game business when they become adults. This is a combination of demographic and business shrinking effects that can span as long as a dozen years.

Of course, I also hope that the current sale is a big mistake, and it may be sold at the bottom. I hope it hits the face hard, and I will be very happy. At that time, it means that China’s most important Internet company has revived, and there must be some The change of national policy and the opening of the industry atmosphere, it is impossible for us to be unhappy to see that kind of change come to us.

In the process, I pondered why Buffett killed Wells Fargo, and 32 years of ownership is almost a lifetime for a person. It is different from Tecent, it is the collapse of the corporate governance level, it is the same kind of Boeing, and it should be abandoned. This is not the case with Tecent. It is a company with excellent quality and is restricted by external policies, even if the prospects for development are completely different now. In the future, it is a little sad that Tecent will become our hype stock rather than a long-term holding stock. We understand very well that this is a matter of power at which hand.

(Additional comment: The US, Europe, Japan and South Korea rose sharply overnight, and the HSI followed suit. It is unavoidable to be surprised. This is after a 0.75% interest rate hike. Some people mistakenly mistaken the negative for the positive. Today, the Asian stock market retreated across the board while the US futures index went up and down. Tunnel It’s still too long, and you should backhand when it rebounds. Raising interest rates will always mean that the value of cash will rise and the value of stocks will sink. Not to mention this is a violent interest rate hike of a lifetime. Hope will be extinguished again and again. It is reasonable only for bank stocks to benefit slightly from higher interest rates, and even bank stocks will collapse in the depths of the crisis.)

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