$Hikvision(SZ002415)$ From the perspective of Neptune’s profits, in such a macro environment, I am optimistic about Neptune’s toughness, but Neptune can’t bear it (the growth rate of main expenses does not match the growth rate of revenue) . I can’t say that this performance is poor, I can only say that my thoughts are optimistic. Compared with Weil and Huawei, Hikvision is still very capable. After all, in the case of extremely fragmented business, revenue can maintain a growth rate of 10%. Looking back and thinking about it, it was really not easy.
The actual company management’s judgment is the same as that of investors. It can be seen from the management fee, R&D investment and inventory in the first half of the year. They are all positive. I think the management may not have expected that Shanghai will be closed due to the epidemic, and it will last for a long time. It is close to February, but from the data in June, the company’s performance has recovered quite well. This is an ideal performance data that can be achieved under this staffing configuration. It depends on whether it can be maintained or even further improved in the second half of the year. After all, in the second half of the year It is the absolute leader of performance.
After carefully looking at the financial report, I found that the actual performance was okay, not so bad. The cash flow and so on are also caused by the increase in expenditure rather than the collection. To sum up, the first half of the year was the same, and the annual performance still depends on the second half of the year. The economic situation, the economic growth rate must pick up in the second half of the year. Haikang’s products are the mandatory consumption of B and G-end, and the optional consumption of C-end, so basically Shanghai Kang’s performance can more truly reflect the actual economic situation. From the data of various business levels, it is obvious that although B and G-ends have increased There is a lot of pressure, but compared to EZVIZ in the C-side of innovative business, the negative impact is much lower. This idea may be the main investment idea in the second half of the year.
There is a high probability that the economy in the second half of the year will be better than the first half of the year. It depends on how much the entire market can get? If the GDP in the second half of the year can return to the normal potential growth rate of 5.5% on average, then it can basically match the management and R&D growth rate of Hikvision in the first half of the year, which may also be the basis for the company to formulate the cost investment plan at the beginning of the year (I think this is also The fundamental reason for the negative growth of the company’s profits in the first half of the year is that the company expects that the GDP will grow by 5.5% in the first half of the year, so it invested in expenses at a growth rate of 5.5%, but the actual increase was only 2.5%, but the expenses were invested – Haikang’s Expenses are mainly invested in R&D and recruitment, projects are on, and personnel cannot be adjusted, which is different from the way marketing expenses can be adjusted in a timely manner, but this is also the driving force for growth once the economy recovers. It can be said that Haikang is now It should be full of motivation, which can also be seen from the net profit of 2 billion in a single month in June).
Looking at the growth rate of Haikang’s performance throughout the year, it is certain that the growth rate will be low and then high, and it will depend on how high it is.
Judging from Hikvision’s performance, it shows that even the best boats need to look at the general environment when driving on the sea. It is indeed difficult to ride through the wind in rough seas. It is not easy for Hikvision to maintain a 10% revenue growth. Therefore, judging from Feng Liu’s increase in holdings, I personally understand that in such a harsh wind and rain environment, find a Noah’s Ark, and when the storm passes, this Noah’s Ark will not run slowly.
I simply looked at the financial report, and I was still in the field and waited for home before I sorted out the data, and then re-organized it according to the company’s interpretation.
Excerpted from “Yellow and Blue Road” 8.13
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