I’ve always thought that if you can’t form an intuitive impression of a person after communicating with him for an hour, it only shows that the person is not sincere. Fortunately, the fund manager of Harvest Fund, Qu Shengwei, is a very sincere person. Before his online roadshow was over, I had already conceived the outline of this article.
1. Investment strategy
As a general rule, when writing about fund managers, you should write about returns first, but I always think that “taking people based on results” is very one-sided. Even if a fund performs badly, I have to know why it sucks, right? (But don’t think that Manager Qu’s investment returns are bad. In fact, his returns in 2022 will be very strong, probably ranking in the top 3% of the market. )
According to Mr. Qu’s self-reported, his investment is mainly based on contrarian strategies, and other strategies such as trends and arbitrage are supplementary. So what exactly is a reverse strategy? I think Manager Qu means relatively undervalued.
During the roadshow, Manager Qu mentioned that he likes to do distress reversal stocks, but immediately found that the statement was inaccurate. For example, the new energy industry chain in 2022 cannot be said to reverse distress, but Manager Qu has a heavy position, so he put this sentence The errata is “stocks that have been mistakenly killed by the market in the medium and long term”.
The so-called “medium and long-term market mistakenly kills”, I personally think that includes two types of stocks, one is the long-term development trend of the stock, but the current valuation is high, the future growth of such stocks can cover the current high valuation, It can be roughly summed up as the “growth stocks” that the market often calls; the other type is the stocks that are developing steadily but are currently extremely undervalued. The stock price of such stocks can no longer truly reflect the value of the company’s assets, and can be roughly summarized as the “growth stocks” that the market often says. Dilemma Reversal Stocks”.
On the basis of insisting on “being mistakenly killed by the market in the medium and long term”, Manager Qu still attaches great importance to timing. For example, although the new energy industry chain has high growth potential, he will only choose to buy bottoms on the left in March and April 2022, instead of It will choose to chase the gains on the right side in July and August 2022.
2. Investment income
OK, after talking about the strategy, we have to verify the strategy. Manager Qu also said in the road show that there is a very simple answer to the question of “how to choose a fund manager” . Manager Qu’s earnings.
Manager Qu has jointly managed the Harvest-themed New Power Hybrid since December 2017, and started to manage the fund independently in January 2018. It can be seen that Manager Qu’s excess return (relative to the average return of similar funds) started around January 2019, and he has confirmed his lead since June 2020.
Why did Manager Qu start to run out of excess in 2019? Because he is relatively heavy on new energy. After analyzing the industry distribution of the Harvest theme new power hybrid in the last 5 years, I found that Manager Qu has adjusted his heavy-holding industry since 2019-changed the original half strategy of manufacturing and information technology to a single heavy-holding manufacturing industry, and other industries. Industry flexible assistance.
During the road show, I asked Manager Qu why he would adjust the industry layout from 2019. He told me very honestly that the 2018 Bancang Xinchuang was actually a “black history”. Manager Qu said that although his performance in 2018 did not underperform the industry average, he did not exceed it at all. This experience prompted him to study hard and finally chose the manufacturing direction after analysis.
If you don’t outperform the average, you will lose. I can only say that Manager Qu’s self-demanding spirit makes me ashamed. Of course, Manager Qu mentioned that he hates everyone to classify him as a “new energy track fund manager”. He believes that his relatively heavy investment in the new energy industry chain since 2019 is the result of investment strategy adaptation – the new energy theme is in In all A-share themes, the investment performance-to-price ratio is in the first echelon. In addition, Manager Qu clearly mentioned that he has not been thinking about the new energy theme since 2019. For example, since the third quarter of 2018, he has continued to increase the position of electronic cigarettes, and in the first quarter of 2019, he will add a certain stock to the first quarter of 2019. A heavy position, and then began to gradually lighten the position in the second quarter of 2019, and finally took a full round of gains.
When I checked the heavy-holding stocks of the Harvest-themed new power mix, I found that Manager Qu also adjusted the first heavy-holding stock to the agricultural theme when the new energy theme fell in early 2022. It can only be said that Manager Qu has a really large circle of competence, and he is really good at learning.
3. Transaction Framework
To be honest, I used to hate fund managers with a “big circle of competence”. The so-called “knowing everything” means not understanding everything, right? How can there be a “hexagonal superman”? But after listening to Manager Qu’s roadshow, I found that he may really be a “little superman”.
The biggest problem for fund managers with a “big circle of competence” is how to balance the industry allocation. After all, as of September 1, 2022, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has divided A-share listed companies into 19 major categories and 90 subcategories. Who can track them all? ? ! Manager Qu said that one of the simplest methods is to watch the line. The so-called stock price reflects all changes. Whether the time to invest in a sector arrives or not, watching the line can solve most problems. Of course, Manager Qu also said that the advantage of the reverse strategy lies in “discovering the wrong kill in advance”, and technical indicators may lag behind fundamental data, so this method of watching the line can only be used when the fund manager has established a complete investment research framework for the A-shares as a whole. After that, it can be applied.
Regarding drawdown control, Manager Qu said that the investment in derivatives by public funds is relatively limited. In principle, the most commonly used method of control of drawdowns by public fund managers is to avoid drawdowns, so their operating style is wide open (replacement). This is also the reason for the higher hand rate). Manager Qu said that he has deeply studied the methods of futures, private equity funds, etc. to control the drawdown through hedging and other means, because in comparison, the method of “jumping and getting on the bus” of public funds may cause great disturbance to the market.
Finally, add a few anecdotes from Manager Qu.
A friend asked Manager Qu how to do performance attribution. Manager Qu said that he usually only reflects when the fund’s net worth performance is poor, because the rise of the fund’s net worth shows that he is right. Rather than doing performance attribution, it is better to think about what to do next.
Secondly, Manager Qu mentioned that investors should maintain a sense of composure, do not set some unrealistic profit targets for themselves, do a good job in investment research, do a good job in the trading framework, and leave the rest to the market. Do not constantly adjust the trading plan due to fluctuations in net worth.
Finally , Manager Qu gives two reminders to investors who hold his fund products:
① The reverse strategy implies the logic of the layout on the left side, and the excess returns are not obvious in the general rising market;
②On the premise that the fund manager’s competence circle can be covered, the wider the distribution of the fund industry, the easier it is to draw the “lottery of the times”. Therefore, compared with some “track-type” fund managers, they can only wait for the industry cycle . Funds have a greater chance of waiting until the “wind”.
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$ Harvest Theme New Power Hybrid (F070021)$ $ Harvest Reverse Strategy (F000985)$ $ Shanghai Composite Index (SH000001)$
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