Talk to Jun on the weekend of 20220903

To investors who follow this account: On the road of deep value investment, walk with you.

There’s a lot going on this week, so let’s just say a few words.

1. Overall market

My attitude has been in recent weeks: tasteless. Before the much-anticipated conference, it was in a state of maintaining stability. All Chinese understand the importance of this conference. Therefore, the control of the epidemic will not be relaxed in the near future, and the economy is in a state of flattening. Many things will have to wait for the dust of the conference to settle before there will be new opinions and improvements. Before this, the chance of launching a big market was very small, and it only needed stability.

2. Consumption

This year’s Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are far apart, and the impulse consumption desire caused by the superposition of the double festival itself is not as good as in previous years. Recently, the epidemic situation in various parts of the country has begun to rise again. Basically, there is no need to expect too much consumption in this peak season. In the current situation, consumption mainly depends on the recovery next year, and there may be a small bull market. Right now, it’s basically lying flat.

Specifically, most of the liquors will not be sold to dealers during the Double Festival this year, and it is rare to “control the goods and keep the prices high during the peak season”. On the one hand, it shows that the short-term view is indeed relatively dull; on the other hand, I think this is a good thing. In particular, companies that have experienced several rounds of liquor foam crises have gained a lot of experience in coping with cycles, and have begun to actively adjust and respond actively. For a super brand like Maotai, there is no need to worry too much, and it is not his turn to lose the entire industry. From the perspective of the brand and this round of adjustment, Wuliangye and Fenjiu have great potential for the next cycle after experiencing a trough. For the stock market, long-term friends don’t need to worry about it, just let it fluctuate; short-term friends, it’s better to wait quietly for the market to give you a cheap opportunity.

The mid-year report of the leading dairy product, I personally think it is still good. Once again, the point of view of this company is definitely not the further increase in penetration rate and market share, and this wave of dividends is basically over. However, with its strong industry competitiveness, it will be the key for the next 3-5 years to realize the upgrade of product structure and increase profit margin in the future. This year, under the difficult circumstances of the whole industry, it is rare that key businesses such as milk powder and cheese have achieved high growth (its competitors have declined instead). However, the management believed in the conference call that in the short term, the impact of the epidemic is still very large, and the words “weak recovery” are used in the judgment of performance. It is normal for the secondary market to decline a little, and there is nothing to worry about in the long-term value.

The Cantonese-style moon cake leader’s interim report is also very good, with a year-on-year growth of 45%. However, the company’s seasonality is obvious. The profit contribution in the first half of the year is only a fraction of the whole year, and the key is in the third quarter. It is a pity that the current basic markets such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen are still affected by the epidemic. In addition to the general environment of this year, we cannot hold too much hope. It is better to be pragmatic.

In general, my judgment on consumption: this year will be flat, next year will be a calf, and the next year will be a big bull. Now is the time to accumulate a lot, choose a target, and make a gradual layout. Of course, for not-for-sale products, hold firmly and endure the issue of time.

3. Internet

Marginal improvements in policy can still be seen. Since this month, the Penguin Video account has been advertised, and the small group’s mid-term report shows that the “instant retail” in the city is growing very fast. I think we have reached a stage where the fundamentals have bottomed out and transitioned from the left to the right. At this stage, the stock price is still unstable and will fluctuate, but if the policy supervision does not rebound in the future, it is believed that there will be an endogenous recovery growth in the next three years. I remember the last round of liquor crisis, from 2013 to 2016, when the market officially started, it took a full three years to dormant. This round of Internet crisis, or shuffling, will take a few years to come out for sure. After we cleared up last year (although we have been scarred), this year, we have re-examined and laid out with the mentality of starting from scratch. But what will the future look like? There are still some questions that are hard to answer. My personal style is that I don’t like to bet too much on the left side.

4. Medicine

In the previous live broadcast, I admitted that I didn’t understand, so I didn’t have time to make up the class. I was optimistic about the big track, and it has been deeply adjusted for a few years. The standard ETF is more worry-free.

5. Other

I believe that after this year’s conference, many things will be settled, so in view of the current situation, it must be an important thing to restore the economy and enhance the confidence of the people in the economy. The economy is about to enter a new round of stimulus and expansion, and only leading companies and powerful companies can have capital to harvest against the trend at this stage. Therefore, I am optimistic about the market and market style of the industry leaders in the next few years. From next year, it is possible to return to the style of the leading white horse. As for high-end manufacturing, especially the emerging companies represented by the new half army, according to my current research, the entire industry chain from the primary to the secondary market has been carrying a lot of bubbles in the past three years, and the current valuations of many companies have already The very long-term expectations in the future are full. Once the speed is stalled, the pain of double-killing valuation performance will come again. Moreover, these industries have experienced rapid expansion for several years. In the future, they will inevitably go through a stage of shuffling, optimization, and the leftovers. Turn off the lights when eating noodles.

At present, it is time to accumulate a lot of money, seize the time to investigate leading companies in all walks of life, and find out those companies that are out of the second place (even never catch up), and the next round of economic recovery and expansion, these companies will be again Surprise us.

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