1. Certain uncertainty is a common feature of the banking industry in the second half of the year, and Industrial Bank is no exception.
1. The lag effect of the new real estate policy, how it will manifest and evolve in the second half of the year, is not easy to predict, and how it will affect the economy, there is great uncertainty.
2. In the second half of the year, the epidemic will have greater uncertainty, and its impact on the economy will have greater uncertainty.
3. The economic stabilization policies that have been implemented and will be implemented in the second half of the year are highly uncertain.
2. It is certain that Industrial Bank has achieved endogenous growth.
Regarding the logic and judgment that Industrial Bank has achieved endogenous growth, as early as early 2021, “ Industrial Bank has achieved endogenous growth, and its 2021 net profit year-on-year growth rate is conservatively estimated not to be lower than 15% ” and other snowball articles, I It has been elaborated; recently, in the article ” Thinking about Bank Stock Investment: Why Industrial Bank’s Endogenous Growth Has Been Completely Established “, it will be discussed again. I won’t go into details here, but here are some tidbits:
Mr. Gu Zidi has studied China Merchants Bank very deeply, and has a high degree of attention and research on Industrial Bank. Recently, when he commented on Industrial Bank’s 2022 semi-annual report, he commented on Industrial Bank’s endogenous growth. His evaluation is that “the current endogenous growth is doing well ” . In Mr. Gu Zidi’s writings, apart from China Merchants Bank, which he has a heavy position in, and China Construction Bank, which he has a certain position in, Industrial Bank should be the only one to have such an honor.
3. The excellent corporate culture of Industrial Bank is more evident in the special environment in the first half of the year than under normal conditions; it is highly likely to be the same in the second half of the year: whether it is a prudent strategic determination, or a pragmatic business structure adjustment and a solid foundation for development.
Fourth, in the second half of the year, the month-on-month decrease in interest margins is a high-probability event; however, whether the year-on-year decrease is widened or narrowed is uncertain (because the month-on-month decrease of 0.06 percentage points in the second half of last year).
Fifth, in the second half of the year, the non-performing loan generation rate was higher than the same period of the previous year, which is a high probability event; but it is uncertain whether it will increase or decrease compared with the first half of the year.
Sixth, the year-on-year growth rate of business management fees is higher than that of operating income, which is certain; but the month-on-month decline in the year-on-year growth rate in the second half of the year is also certain.
7. In the second half of the year, the ratio of non-performing loan ratio, overdue loan ratio, non-performing loan deviation, provision coverage ratio and other indicators compared to the previous month depends not only on the real situation with certain uncertainties, but also on the management of Industrial Bank on non-performing loans. The choice of write-off strength.
8. The year-on-year growth rate of net profit for the year should be between 10% and 16%. In this regard, the management of Industrial Bank has more room for compliance options. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of earnings per share will be 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points higher than the year-on-year growth rate of net profit.
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