core point
With low penetration rate and high growth, the CGM blue ocean market has set sail quickly. Blood glucose monitoring is an important part of diabetes management, and clinically, it mainly relies on the detection of capillary blood glucose monitoring (SMBG), continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and glycated albumin (GA). In 2019, European and American international academic institutions jointly issued the “TIR International Consensus Recommendation”, and my country’s “China Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes (2020 Edition)” also included TIR as a blood sugar control target. With the advancement of technology, my country’s CGM market is rapidly emerging. my country’s CGM is currently in the early stage of market cultivation (market size is 1.7 billion yuan), with a low penetration rate (type I 6.9%) and a low localization rate (less than 5%), which has a large market potential. In 2019, the number of diabetic patients in my country has reached 120 million, and the prevalence rate has reached 10.9%. It is estimated that by 2030, the number of diabetic patients in my country will reach 143 million. In 2019, the market size of my country’s diabetes monitoring medical devices was about 1 billion US dollars. It is expected that by 2030, my country’s diabetes monitoring medical device market will reach 6.1 billion US dollars. Among them, my country’s CGM market will be about 1.7 billion yuan in 2020. The penetration rates of CGM for type I, type II, and gestational diabetes are 6.9%, 1.1%, and 0.3%, respectively. It is expected to reach 38% by 2030, 13% and 1%. %, it is estimated that in 2030, the market size of CGM will grow rapidly to 17.9 billion yuan at a rate of CAGR=27%.
Four dimensions evaluate CGM, and three major technical barriers build a moat. The evaluation system of CGM is mainly based on accuracy, comfort, scalability and accessibility. 1) In terms of accuracy, indicators such as the proportion of MARD values and measured values falling in Clarke’s A+B area are commonly used indicators. The MARD value of the Chinese Food and Drug Administration only needs to reach 18%, and the MARD value of some products can be reduced to below 10%. The MARD value of Weitai Medical is 9.1%, and the MARD value of Dekang Medical G7 is reduced to 8.8%; 2) From the use of In terms of comfort, the need for fingertip blood correction, volume size, and blood sugar measurement range will all affect the patient’s experience. At present, my country has successfully commercialized the first-generation sensor technology, and Yuyue has continuously improved on the basis of the first-generation technology. CT2 is currently on the market, and the third-generation sensor technology of Sino Biosciences is about to enter the clinic. Look, my country currently has 4 domestic products on the market and 2 imported products on the market. In the future, as the performance of domestic brands improves, they will further seize the domestic market share by virtue of price and channel advantages. In addition, whether the product can be connected to an external insulin pump, as well as the product price and whether it can be reimbursed by medical insurance and other factors all affect the volume of CGM products.
Overseas CGM technology is mature, and the three-pronged pattern has been established. Overseas CGM originated from the exploration of artificial pancreas in the 1970s. In 2020, the global CGM market is 31.77 billion yuan, and by 2030, it will grow to 226.96 billion yuan at a CAGR=21.7%. In 2030, it will reach 63.7% and 50.7%, respectively. The penetration rates of CGM in T1/2 diabetes patients in the five EU countries in 2020 were 18.2% and 7.0%, respectively, and are expected to reach 60.6% and 49.2%, respectively, in 2030. The rapid development of the overseas CGM market is mainly driven by three factors: 1) Technology improvement: product accuracy and patient comfort are improved; 2) Official recognition: In 2016, the FDA recognized that CGM data can replace finger blood measurement values for decision-making and treatment. Propose TIR monitoring indicators; 3) Medical insurance coverage: In 2017, the US CMS included CGM in medical insurance. In overseas markets, Dekang, Abbott, and Medtronic have become three pillars. The global CGM leader Dekang Medical has achieved rapid development. In 2020, its revenue will exceed 1.93 billion US dollars and its profit will be 490 million US dollars. It has entered a period of profit harvesting. Further increase profitability. Abbott’s Instantaneous series constantly pursues wearing comfort, and FreeStyleLibre3 is expected to open up room for growth with the world’s thinnest CGM. As the pioneer of the global artificial pancreas, Medtronic is currently applying the advanced hybrid closed-loop algorithm to further advance towards the goal of a more intelligent “artificial pancreas”.
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