The prospect is unclear, TSMC has deposited 321 billion yuan; ​“overall risk is controllable”, 17 banks announced 3.2 billion yuan in risk loans

Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1227

Uncertain prospects, TSMC has 321 billion in storage

Just a few months ago, TSMC seemed invulnerable and everyone was talking about how it became one of the most important companies in the world. It’s still as relevant today, despite a stock price drop of more than 40%, the worst in a decade.

The biggest concern is how TSMC will continue to grow even as economic growth slows. In the midst of doubts, TSMC announced a number of indicators that exceeded expectations in the second quarter financial report:

• Revenue was NT$534.1 billion (approximately US$17.9 billion), a year-on-year increase of 43.5%, exceeding expectations;
• TSMC’s revenue has been at an all-time high for eight consecutive quarters.
• Net profit was NT$237 billion (approximately US$7.9 billion), a year-on-year increase of 76.4%, exceeding expectations;
• Operating profit margin and net profit margin were 49.1% and 44.4%, up 10 and 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, also exceeding expectations.
• All profit margins hit record highs.

They expect revenue to grow 35% this year, 5 percentage points higher than previously estimated. Growth could come from demand for data center and automotive chips, as well as rising prices. They offset the impact of declining demand from consumer electronics, cryptocurrency customers. In June, TSMC was cut off by three major customers, Apple, AMD and Nvidia.

• The overall global foundry is still tight, and mainstream fabs continue to maintain full production. Including TSMC.
• Upstream price increases and tight supply, but TSMC’s pricing power is not affected, and prices have been raised several times this year.

However, TSMC, which spends as much as it earns and spends almost every penny on its cutting edge, chose to compress the annual capital expenditure this time to $40 billion, which is close to the lower limit of the original plan. Including the newly issued bonds, TSMC’s cash reserves at the end of June this year reached a record 47.8 billion US dollars, equivalent to 321 billion yuan. Cash reserves are nearly $10 billion higher than at the end of 2021.

• Reducing spending does not mean shrinking. TSMC’s annual capital spending still leads its peers and its previous record.
• But they noticed that the supply chain began to reduce stocking, and believed that the scale of industry inventories had begun to decline. The excess inventory may not ease until the second half of 2023. (Gong Fangyi)

“Overall risks are controllable”, 17 banks announced 3.2 billion yuan in risky loans

On July 14, including the six major state-owned banks, a total of 17 banks disclosed the scale of housing mortgage loans involving current risk events, with a total scale of about 3.2 billion yuan. Among them, Industrial Bank accounted for half. Most of the banks that made the announcement said the overall risk was manageable.

• Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, 637 million yuan, accounting for 0.01% of the bank’s mortgage loan balance.
• Agricultural Bank, 660 million yuan, accounting for 0.012% of the bank’s mortgage loan balance. “The overall risk is manageable”.
• Bank of China, which did not disclose the amount, said that “the overall risk of the bank’s personal housing loan business is controllable.”
• China Construction Bank, which did not disclose the amount, said that “the scale of the bank involved is small and the overall risk is controllable.”
• Postal Savings Bank, 127 million yuan. “risk controllable”.
• Bank of Communications, RMB 99.8 million. “risk controllable”.
• China Merchants Bank, 12 million yuan.
• Industrial Bank, 1.6 billion yuan. The amount of mortgages that have stopped repayment has reached 384 million yuan. “The overall scale of mortgage loans that the company has intervened and has the risk of unfinished ends is small and will not have a significant impact on the company’s operations.”
• Minsheng Bank, 66 million yuan. “The overall risk is manageable”.
• Everbright Bank, 65 million yuan.
• Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, 56 million yuan. “The overall risk is manageable”.
• China CITIC Bank, 46 million yuan.
• Ping An Bank, RMB 31.8 million, accounting for 0.011% of the bank’s mortgage loan balance. “The Bank’s mortgage loans involving unfinished end risks are generally small in scale and will not have a significant impact on the Bank’s operations.”
• Zheshang Bank, 31 million yuan. “The overall risk is manageable”.
• Bank of Jiangsu, 31 million yuan. “Little impact on overall credit asset quality”.
• Bank of Nanjing, 21.14 million yuan.
• Bank of Ningbo, undisclosed amount, “the proportion of real estate mortgage business is relatively low, and it has little impact on the company.”

Usually a real estate is worth billions of dollars. The detailed statistical caliber of the bank is not very clear. For example, the Agricultural Bank of China calculates that “the real estate with the risk of ‘guaranteeing the property’ involves overdue mortgage loans”, the Bank of Communications calculates the “overdue housing mortgage loan of the company involved in the risky real estate”, and the Zheshang Bank calculates “‘Forced loan suspension” ‘Loans involved in real estate’.

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The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission responded to the relevant incident on July 14. According to CCTV news:

The person in charge of the relevant department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that recently, they have been concerned about the delayed delivery of real estate projects of individual real estate companies.

In the next step, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will continue to implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the positioning of “houses are for living, not for speculation”, adhere to stable land prices, house prices, and expectations, and maintain real estate financial policies. to ensure the continuity and stability of real estate financing, maintain stable and orderly real estate financing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, guide financial institutions to participate in risk disposal in a market-oriented manner, strengthen work coordination with housing and construction departments and the People’s Bank of China, and support local governments Actively promote the work of “guaranteing the delivery of buildings, people’s livelihood, and stability”, and provide relevant financial services in accordance with laws and regulations, so as to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.

(Gong Fangyi)

Shell predicts that housing demand will decline by 2.5% annually in the next 15 years

• On July 13, the Shell Research Institute released the “2021-2035 my country Housing Demand Forecast” report, which believes that China’s total housing demand has entered a period of decline from 2021 to 2035. It is predicted that by 2035, the total housing demand will drop to 1.33 billion square meters. The average annual growth rate over 15 years was 2.5%.

• Although the total housing demand area has declined, there is still a huge housing demand. According to the calculation of the Shell Research Institute, from 2021 to 2035, China will have a new housing demand of 20.1 billion to 24.7 billion square meters.
• The demand for new housing can be divided into three categories: rigid housing demand caused by the transfer of population from rural to urban areas, improved housing demand caused by the increase in the housing area of ​​urban residents and local urbanization residents, and the demolition and reconstruction of old urban houses. Demolition and update needs to come. Among them, improvement needs and demolition needs together account for as high as 90%.

• According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in the first half of 2022, the average monthly transaction area of ​​new commercial housing in key 100 cities was about 30.99 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42%, and the transaction scale was the lowest in the same period in recent years.
• Among them, from January to May, the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide was 510 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%, and the sales of commercial housing was 4.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.5%.
• From May to June, policies were optimized in many places and the impact of the epidemic gradually weakened, and the real estate market in hot cities recovered slightly, but the overall low temperature remained.

• Housing demand changes with demographics. In theory, the higher the population support ratio, the stronger the social productivity, the smaller the intergenerational burden, the stronger the demographic dividend, and the stronger the housing demand, and vice versa.
• China’s population support ratio has reached its peak in 2011. The experience of developed Asian neighbors shows that the population support ratio is 3-4 years ahead of the peak housing demand, and the housing development stages have experienced periods of rapid growth, high volatility and decline.
• The population support ratio refers to the ratio of the number of people in the labor force between the ages of 15 and 64 to the sum of the population under the age of 15 and over the age of 64.
• In China, this ratio peaked in 2011, exceeding 290%. It dropped to 240% in 2019. (Intern Zeng Xing)

Legend: China’s population support ratio data. Source: Wind. Click to see larger picture

Uniqlo’s performance in China fell significantly from March to May, and it is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter

• Fast Retailing Group, the parent company of Uniqlo, released its results for the second fiscal quarter (as of the end of May) today, and the market is particularly concerned about the performance of China. Because China is its largest overseas market, with nearly 900 stores.

• Consistent with expectations, the revenue and profit of the major brand Uniqlo in Greater China declined significantly. The financial report mentioned that between March and May, the highest number of stores closed was 169, of which there were about 90 stores in Shanghai. However, after the epidemic slowed down in June, sales increased immediately. It is expected that revenue and profit will rebound significantly this quarter, but it still cannot make up for the losses in the past nine months. Before this round of the epidemic, Uniqlo’s performance in China had slowed down.

• Although China’s performance has declined, Uniqlo has achieved overall growth. As people returned to offline, same-store sales in Southeast Asia, North America, and Europe all surpassed pre-pandemic sales, with overseas revenue up 14% to $1.8 billion and operating profit up 18% to $270 million. The Japanese market also reversed losses, with quarterly revenue of $1.4 billion and operating profit of $270 million.

• However, management is cautious about the outlook. It mentioned that the depreciation of the yen has increased costs, and it is expected that discounts will be reduced to ease the pressure; for price increases, customers are sensitive to prices due to inflationary pressures, and they are not optimistic about the prospects after price increases; as for the US market, which is regarded as a key point It is very likely to fall into stagflation, and it is difficult for consumption to improve, but there are still opportunities for growth in affordable clothing.

• Revenue guidance is relatively optimistic. Fast Retailing’s net profit in the first three quarters of this fiscal year (as of the end of August this year) rose 57% year-on-year, and is expected to rise 47% for the whole year. Full-year profit forecast was sharply raised to $1.8 billion from $1.36 billion previously. The company said it is forecasting a new high for this year, with or without currency effects.

In the first half of the year, both upstream and downstream of the new energy vehicle industry grew, and the most profitable ones were lithium miners

• A number of A-share companies issued performance forecasts today. Under the volatile environment in the first half of the year, the most stable is the new energy vehicle industry, and almost all upstream and downstream companies have achieved rapid growth.

• The most upstream is the raw material. Benefiting from the continued high price of lithium, lithium miners have basically achieved ultra-high growth. The leader Ganfeng Lithium expects a net profit of 7.2 billion to 9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 408% to 535% year-on-year. Tianqi Lithium predicts a net profit of 9.6 billion to 11.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110 to 134 times, due to the rapid development of the new energy industry and the rise in volume and price of lithium products.

• Smaller businesses also benefit. In addition to selling motors, Jiangte Motor also sells lithium salts. In the first half of this year, the estimated net profit is 1.28 billion to 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 606% to 677.7%; Keda Manufacturing is expected to have a net profit of 2.1 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 413% to 437%, because the production capacity of negative electrode materials (electric vehicle battery raw materials) is tight, the efficiency of the company’s lithium battery materials has improved, and the income of Lanke Lithium Industry, which is a shareholder, has also risen sharply.

• Star Semiconductor expects a net profit of 340 million to 350 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 121% to 127%, due to the continuous increase in demand from industries such as new energy vehicles, clean energy, and energy storage. Star Semiconductor mainly produces IGBT chips, which are key chips for electric vehicle electronic control systems, and are also suitable for photovoltaics and other fields.

• The most downstream BYD, the net profit attributable to the parent in the first half of the year is expected to be 2.8 to 3.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 139% to 207%. Mainly due to the rapid growth in sales of new energy vehicles, which has driven the improvement in profitability, to a certain extent, it has offset the upward pressure on the price of upstream raw materials. In the first half of this year, BYD sold 638,000 new energy vehicles, and its domestic market share exceeded 1/4; in the second quarter, the global sales of pure electric vehicles surpassed Tesla for the first time. (Lin Guangying)

A-share results forecast for the first half of the year (1)

As the semi-annual report window is approaching, A-share companies have successively disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2022. “Late Point Finance” continues to track.

• Shanghai Airport: It is expected to report a net loss of RMB 1.23 billion to RMB 1.29 billion in the first half of the year. (transportation)
• Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail: It is estimated that the estimated loss in the first half of the year is 1.032 billion yuan to 1.547 billion yuan. (transportation)
• New Hope: It is estimated that the net profit in the first half of the year will be 3.9 billion yuan to 4.2 billion yuan. (livestock)
• Muyuan: It is expected to report a net loss of RMB 6.3 billion to RMB 6.9 billion in the first half of the year. (livestock)
• China Merchants Shekou: Net profit in the first half of the year is expected to drop by 50.60%-64.71% year-on-year (port)
• Yankuang Energy: Net profit in the first half of the year is expected to increase by about 198% year-on-year (coal) (coal)
• CNC: It is expected that the net profit in the first half of the year will increase by 83.65% to 95.42% year-on-year (monocrystalline silicon)
• Changan Automobile: Net profit in the first half of the year is expected to increase by 189.14%-258.54% year-on-year (car)
• Great Wall Motor: Net profit after non-deduction in the first half of the year is expected to drop by 19.07% to 36.66% year-on-year (car)
• Orient Securities: Net profit in the first half of the year is expected to drop by 76% to 80% year-on-year (brokerage)
• Juewei Food: Net profit in the first half of the year is expected to drop by 78.08%-82.07% year-on-year (food)
• CNOOC: Net profit in the first half of the year is expected to increase by 112% to 118% year-on-year, from 70.5 billion yuan to 72.5 billion yuan (energy)
• Poly Development: Net profit in the first half of the year was 10.7 billion yuan, an increase of 4% year-on-year (real estate)
• Yonghui Supermarket: Estimated net loss of 120 million yuan in the first half of the year
• Perfect World: Net profit in the first half of the year increased by 330.84% ​​– 350.25%

“Intellectuals”: Compared with the spread of BA.5, it is more important to optimize the background of population immunity

• In the past month, BA.5 mutant strains have appeared in many places in China. Because BA.5 is generally considered to spread faster and have stronger immune escape than original strains such as BA.2, it has attracted public attention.

• The “Intellectuals” WeChat official account published an article this week, suggesting that it is more important to optimize China’s herd immunity background than to care about the differences between different strains and subspecies. The main arguments are as follows:

1. The article first proposes that the immune evasion ability and transmission speed of virus strains are relative to the “immune characteristics” of the population.

• Taking immune escape as an example, if BA.5 has immune evasion ability to BA.2, then for people with only “the most original strain immune background”, the difference between BA.5 and BA.2 immune escape is limited;
• The propagation speed is the same. If BA.5 spreads faster than BA.2 in an area, it may be because “BA.5 vs BA.2” has stronger immune escape ability and more susceptible populations than “BA.2 vs BA.1” , which has a dissemination advantage. Similarly, for the population with only the “most original strain immune background”, the difference in transmission speed between the two is limited;
• Severity rates are similar. Different regions may have different severe rates of BA.5 due to different population immunization backgrounds. For example, a study in South Africa indicated that the mortality rate of BA.4/5 was slightly lower than before, while Portugal was close to the level of BA.1;

2. In fact, stronger immune escape is the result of natural selection. That is, if BA.5 does not have the ability to escape from immunity, it is difficult to spread among people who have generally obtained immune protection. This means that strong immune escape is the basic evolutionary direction of the strain.

3. However, the author pointed out that with reference to some studies in the United States, groups with an immune background of “vaccine + BA.1 infection” also have relatively high levels of antibodies to BA.4/5; those who have only been infected with BA.1 are lower . At least at this stage, the vaccine can still improve the level of protection of the mutant strain. (Whether it will in turn affect the evolution of the strain after inoculation of all staff)

4. Back in China, most people are not naturally infected. The current vaccinations are basically two or three inactivated vaccines, or the third mixed with recombinant protein or adenovirus vaccines. The immune background is relatively simple. Referring to a recent article published by Academician Gao Fu’s research group in the New England Journal of Medicine, these vaccines have significantly lower levels of antibodies to each variant strain of Omicron than the prototype strain. It is therefore more important to optimize the herd immunity background. (Lin Guangying)

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CHART OF THE DAY

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OTHER NEWS

On July 13, there were “86+206” new cases of local new coronavirus infection in mainland China, and Gansu reported 56 confirmed cases in this round of epidemic.

• On July 13, 86 new cases were confirmed locally, including 36 in Gansu, 32 in Guangdong, 5 in Shanghai, and 206 in the mainland, including 64 in Gansu, 42 in Shanghai, and 29 in Henan.
• Gansu added “36+64”. As of 12:00 on the 14th, Gansu had reported 56 confirmed cases in this round of epidemic, and 43 high-risk areas were designated and announced.
• The fourth round of large-scale nucleic acid testing started at 15:00 on July 12 in Lanzhou City, and 39 positive people were screened.
• The virus infected by the confirmed cases in this round of epidemic in Gansu is the new coronavirus Omicron variant BA.2.38.
• Guangdong has newly added “32+11”, of which 26 new cases have been confirmed in Zhuhai. The social risk investigation in Zhuhai is still continuing.
• The newly added “5+42” in Shanghai were all found in the isolation control.
• From 0:00 on July 15th, 60 high school risk areas in Shanghai will be released from control.

In 2022, the total national summer grain output will be 147.39 million tons, an increase of 1%.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 14, the total national summer grain production in 2022 will be 147.39 million tons, an increase of 1.0% over 2021. The bumper harvest of summer grains this year was not easy to come by. On the one hand, it was due to the weather. Affected by the rare autumn floods in the five provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi and Shanxi last year, the late-sown area of ​​winter wheat reached 110 million mu. On the other hand, various unfavorable factors were superimposed, such as The price of agricultural materials continues to rise, the domestic epidemic spreads in many places, and the risk of the international agricultural product supply chain increases sharply.

The Ministry of Finance issued an administrative penalty for cross-border supervision for the first time.

On July 13, the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement stating that, according to the Memorandum of Enforcement Cooperation between the Ministry of Finance and the Securities Regulatory Commission of Malaysia and the request of the Malaysian side to assist in the investigation, the Ministry of Finance issued a statement to the Malaysian listed company Sapphire Group Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fujian Essence Technology. Development Co., Ltd. and Zhongxing Cai Guanghua Certified Public Accountants, which provides audit services, conduct supervision and inspection. After investigation, Fujian Essen Sisuo’s 2016-2018 financial reports were seriously falsified and suspected of crimes, and ZTE Caiguanghua’s audit procedures were seriously lacking. According to relevant regulations, the Ministry of Finance will impose corresponding administrative penalties on them. This is the first cross-border supervision administrative penalty case of the Ministry of Finance.

Italian luxury brand Brunello Cucinelli posted a slight increase in the second quarter in China.

Brunello Cucinelli, known for its cashmere products, had sales of 220 million euros in the second quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 46.5%; sales in the first half of the year were 420 million euros, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%. All regions are growing, with a year-on-year increase of 52.7% in the Americas, 27.2% in Asia, 20.7% in Europe, and 19.7% in Italy. The announcement specifically mentions that the Chinese market has achieved small growth in both the second quarter and the first half of the year. The rapid growth is partly due to the small base, and the brand is also in a growth period in China.

Karpathy, head of Tesla’s artificial intelligence and autonomous driving business, is leaving.

Andrej Karpathy, Tesla’s senior director of artificial intelligence and head of autonomous driving business systems, announced his departure on Wednesday (13th), without revealing his whereabouts after leaving. Karpathy has previously led the development of Tesla’s automatic driving assistance system. The technology developed by his team is critical to Tesla’s fully autonomous driving system FSD. It is the main selling point of Model S, Cybertruck and other models. The fee is $12,000. It is reported that before Karpathy’s departure, more than 200 employees in the Autopilot division have been laid off.

India’s Ministry of Finance said OPPO evaded tariffs of nearly 3.7 billion yuan.

On July 13, the Ministry of Finance of India said that OPPO had evaded tariffs of nearly 43.9 billion Indian rupees (about 3.7 billion yuan) and required it to pay taxes. The Indian Revenue Intelligence Service (DRI) stated that OPPO used duty exemption on some imported products used for the production of mobile phones, and did not include the royalties paid when calculating the transaction value of imported goods, requiring OPPO, OPPO India and related employees. take punishment. Then OPPO India responded that it has different views on the allegations and will give a reply to the allegations. Since the beginning of this year, India has successively launched investigations on Xiaomi and vivo.

Cryptocurrency bank Celsius Network filed for bankruptcy in New York with estimated liabilities of $1 billion – $10 billion.

Celsius Network, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency lending platforms, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the Southern District of New York with estimated liabilities of $1 billion to $10 billion. Celsius will suspend withdrawals, swaps, and transfers on its platform, and it still holds $167 million in cash. This comes after Celsius announced a withdrawal freeze in June, leaving 1.7 million customers unable to redeem their assets. The Lehman crisis has spread in the currency circle . Since July, cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital and cryptocurrency lending platform Voyager Digital have declared bankruptcy one after another.

Bill Gates will donate $20 billion to the foundation to tackle global challenges.

On July 13, local time, Bill Gates announced that he will donate $20 billion to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation this month to support causes such as reducing child deaths, managing climate change and preventing future pandemics. At the same time, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation also announced plans to increase annual grant spending to $9 billion a year by 2026, a 50% increase from pre-pandemic levels. For the future, Bill Gates plans to donate all his wealth to the foundation. In addition, Bill Gates said the foundation’s largest donor is Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett, whose donations totaled $35.7 billion.

Bowing to profits, Netflix will join hands with Microsoft to introduce an advertising subscription model.

Netflix has announced that it has named Microsoft a partner for its ad-supported services. The announcement shows that Netflix chose Microsoft for its flexible innovation in technology and sales, as well as its ability to protect member privacy. It is reported that Netflix announced in April that it planned to launch an “advertized low-cost subscription service”, the news came after its first user drop in a decade in the first quarter of 2022. Netflix co-CEO Reed Hastings has long opposed adding ads or other promotions, but the subscription option has big profit potential for Netflix. In addition, Netflix is ​​exploring ways to live stream and crack down on password sharing to help mitigate declining subscribers and revenue.

The streets of New York “eat the rich” with ten dollars, including Jack Ma.

This week, Brooklyn-based artist collective MSCHF is selling popsicles featuring billionaires like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Ma in New York . Each popsicle has a playful name like Munch Musk, Bite Bezos, Gobble Gates, Suck Zuck and Snack on Jack. The project’s slogan, “Eat the rich,” is meant to draw attention to the soaring billionaires, but a $10 popsicle makes the move somewhat ironic.

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Only 24 pieces of Hokkaido saury were unloaded for the first time, and the price for 1 kilogram exceeded 60,000 yen.

According to Japanese media reports, on July 8, after the “fishing ban” was lifted, a small fishing vessel off the eastern coast of Hokkaido unloaded for the first time and caught only 24 saury. Yuan (about 3,000 RMB) price auction sale. It is reported that due to the impact of previous overfishing and global warming, the amount of drift-net fishing along the eastern coast of Hokkaido has hit its lowest level for three consecutive years.

Text | Gong Fangyi, Lin Guangying, and intern Zeng Xing Intern Xue Yujie

Editor | Gong Fangyi

The title picture comes from the movie “Boyhood”

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