Yingda Securities: The production and sales of new energy commercial vehicles are booming, and the coal industry is stable in price and supply (with report)

Industry Views

New energy vehicles: New energy commercial vehicles are thriving, with both production and sales booming, showing a good situation in which both market size and development quality are improved. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles in 2021 will reach 185,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 54.7%, and the penetration rate will reach 3.86%. The rate reached 6.5%, a record high. From January to March 2022, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 49,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 97.9%, and the penetration rate was 5.07%. In terms of the current overall competition pattern, Chery Commercial Vehicle, Geely Commercial Vehicle and Chongqing Rich New Energy, three new energy commercial vehicle companies occupy most of the current market share, basically achieving a “three-point world” situation.

Coal power: The policy of stabilizing the price of coal and ensuring the supply of coal will increase. On May 1, 2022, the “Notice on Further Improving the Coal Market Price Formation Mechanism” (Fa Gai Price [2022] No. 303) was officially implemented. On April 30, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Announcement on Clarifying the Price Gouging Behavior of Operators in the Coal Sector”, which clarified the price gouging and punitive measures for domestically produced thermal coal operators (including those engaged in coal production and trade). According to the “Notice on Further Improving the Coal Market Price Formation Mechanism”, the reasonable price range (medium and long-term contract) of Qinhuangdao Port’s water coal (5500 kcal) is 570~770 yuan per ton. Or 50% of the upper limit of the reasonable range of medium and long-term transaction prices specified in relevant local documents may be characterized as price gouging. The two documents will directly change the formation mechanism of my country’s future coal prices. It is expected that the fluctuation range of coal prices in the medium and long term will become smaller in the future, and the operating conditions of coal power enterprises will improve.

Photovoltaic: 301 tariffs start review. According to Xu Yuan, a reporter from Xinhua News Agency in Washington, the two actions of the “301 investigation” tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese products (including photovoltaic modules) will end on July 6 and August 23 this year, respectively, and the relevant tariffs may be cancelled. U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi said at the event on the 2nd that the U.S. government will take all policy measures to curb the surge in prices, suggesting that reducing tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States will be considered. The U.S. market is the world’s second largest photovoltaic market and the region with the highest module prices in the world; however, the U.S. has always imposed three additional tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic modules, including anti-dumping and countervailing duties, 201 taxes, and 301 tariffs (with a tax rate of 25%). %); Taken together, the general tax rate of single-sided components exported from my country to the United States exceeds 60%. Lailai, if the 301 tariffs are cancelled, it will be good for my country’s photovoltaic module exports. The United States has imposed 25% tariffs on goods imported from China in two batches since July and August 2018.

Important industry information:

Promote rooftop distributed photovoltaics in qualified areas. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the “Opinions on Promoting Urbanization with County Towns as Important Carriers”. The document proposes to promote low-carbon production and living. Promote clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient use of energy, guide non-fossil energy consumption and distributed energy development, and promote rooftop distributed photovoltaic power generation in qualified areas. Resolutely curb the blind development of “two high” projects, and further promote the circular transformation of industrial parks. Vigorously develop green buildings, promote prefabricated buildings, energy-saving doors and windows, green building materials, green lighting, and fully implement green construction.

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