Ma Manran: New energy and medicine are the two most promising directions for us in the future. New energy is a rare advantageous industry in China. As for new energy, we used to focus on investing in new energy vehicles. Regarding lithium mines and photovoltaics, we have not invested much in the past, although we have seen lithium mines earlier in the past. This year we have increased our investment in photovoltaics and lithium mines. We believe that the development of photovoltaics is slightly behind compared with the development of new energy vehicles. The current photovoltaics are equivalent to the new energy vehicles of two years ago. In terms of penetration rate, the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation is only 3%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles may be higher than that of photovoltaics. It is higher, so photovoltaic is just an emerging industry now, photovoltaic and lithium mine still have huge potential in the future, and there is still room for dozens of times to hundreds of times of returns.
Why does this industry have such high returns? A very important logic is that in the era of clean energy, China leads the world, and each country is led by energy changes. It is the United Kingdom first, then the United States. In the era of new energy, China is at the forefront of the world and is destined to become the third. Leading country in the sub-energy revolution. The third energy revolution is not only about energy, it is not just about replacing coal and oil, it is about changing the way of life of the whole society. What is changing is all aspects of us, not just one energy source. The society has undergone earth-shaking changes, such as the car, train, plane, and lifestyle you travel. When the era of electric vehicles arrives, and the era of fuel vehicles, there may be different lifestyles. For example, when we compare smartphones with keyboard phones, how simple our lifestyle was when we used keyboard phones. In the era of smartphones, our lifestyle has been completely subverted, and we live in a virtual world. Online shopping, social networking, including self-media, and live broadcast are all derived from the transformation of mobile phones in the new era.
China is also the world’s number one in photovoltaics, because photovoltaics and new energy vehicles have a different place. The main point of photovoltaics is the power generation of the same things, such as the efficiency of cells. We are the world’s number one. The cost of our silicon material is the lowest in the world, because this cost is very important, why can’t Europe and the United States compete with us? Because the cost of Europe and the United States is high, the cost of the same silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules produced is several times that of ours. This determines how the global photovoltaic industry looks at China, how the industry leaders are valued and how to price, which requires the benevolent to see benevolence, and the wise to see wisdom, but we think it is far underestimated. We know that the global leader in petrochemical energy is Saudi Aramco, whose market value is 20 trillion RMB, surpassing Apple and ranking first in the world. I will tell you that when the new energy era comes, China’s leading new energy companies will replace Mobil Oil and Saudi Aramco, and our market value will reach more than 10 trillion yuan.
Whether it is a leader in the new energy vehicle industry chain, a leader in the lithium battery industry, or a leader in photovoltaics, there will definitely be companies with a market value of 10 trillion yuan. How high a goal is, just to tell everyone that this era has just begun. At this time, we are rushing into it, not to mention the bubble, this time there is no bubble. It’s okay to talk about bubbles, but in a few years, not now. I can simply compare China’s new energy revolution to the American Internet in the 1990s. When will there be a bubble? In 2000, the Nasdaq index, which we know as the Internet bubble, was the real bubble. An Internet company in the United States could be valued at tens of billions of dollars even without income, with a little profit and a little income. It can be valued at hundreds of billions of US dollars, the US dollar 20 years ago, the photovoltaic leader here is only given a price-earnings ratio of ten times, and the salt lake lithium is given a price-earnings ratio of 10 times.
Just like a lot of people blindly say that pharmaceutical stocks are overvalued and that pharmaceutical stocks are overvalued, I am not saying that pharmaceutical stocks are overvalued or not, you have to see. At the beginning of this year, we also added some new brands of traditional Chinese medicine. For example, the Hong Kong stock market earnings ratio is 4 times and 5 times, which is equivalent to 0.3 times and 0.4 times the price-to-book ratio, which is lower than half of the net assets.
Therefore, we are very optimistic about new energy, because we think it can make a lot of money and it is also the future of China. Ten years from now, half of the top ten Chinese A-share market capitalization companies will be in this industry. I will buy and participate in any company that has become a world-class great enterprise in China’s new energy field, except for the leader of new energy vehicles in the past, the leader of lithium batteries, including companies that may become the world’s number one in the photovoltaic industry in the future, Or if the world has lithium resources, we will all participate.
But the logic is not the same. Although photovoltaics, lithium mines and new energy vehicles are all new energy sources, the logic is completely different. For example, lithium mines, we buy lithium mines, where is the difference between lithium and photovoltaics? Lithium mine is a resource-based stock with an uneven distribution of resources. Therefore, the focus of our purchase of lithium mine is to see if there are mines in his hands. Management ability is the second priority, and whether there are mines is the first. How much is this mine worth, how much is the company’s market value now, and how much it will make in the next year. This supply is relatively slow, so the price of lithium ore is actually like “extracting lithium from a salt lake” and the cost is only more than 30,000 yuan per ton.
Photovoltaic is not, there is no problem of scarcity of raw materials, and there is no mine, but it needs a strong management ability, and it must be able to manage, so that the same production of silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, the cost is lower than others, and the quality is better than others Better and more efficient than others, which requires a strong management to decide the development of this enterprise. Fortunately, these leading companies in photovoltaics are definitely from the Red Sea, and they are absolutely excellent management. Specifically, we do not recommend companies, and everyone can do their own research.
The medicine part is branded traditional Chinese medicine and innovative medicine. In the traditional industry, if there is a relatively large market in this round of bull market in the next few years, the biggest main line of this market is new energy, and the second main line is the traditional industry. What may come out is medicine. Simply compare traditional Chinese medicine or innovative medicine with liquor. In the past, I liked drinking and taking medicine. In the past six or seven years, I drank alcohol and took less medicine. Because of centralized medicine procurement, the policy was unfavorable, which changed a lot of logic in the pharmaceutical industry. I didn’t eat the medicine. But medicine is different now. The starting point is low. Whether it is the impact of centralized procurement on innovative drugs in the pharmaceutical industry, it has also reached a low point. Brand traditional Chinese medicine is not affected by centralized procurement, but it was also affected by emotions in the past two years. , but I think that in this industry, the total consumption is no longer growing, only the total amount of medicine is still growing, because more and more elderly people, health awareness, health care awareness is getting higher and higher.
There is one biggest difference between the traditional Chinese medicine industry and emerging industries. Many of them are independent businesses, and the moat is very stable. For these small seedlings of branded Chinese medicine, it is a kind of happiness that you can buy them, and it is a kind of happiness that you can own them, because they are non-renewable. If this big logic remains unchanged, his equity will be more and more valuable in the future. For example, Chinese medicine is very similar to what happened to liquor in 2014. In 2014, the liquor industry almost withdrew from the holdings of public funds. Now what? Traditional Chinese medicine funds have almost no positions in public funds. Fortunately, some changes have taken place this year. @Today’s topic
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