Policy promotion, offshore photovoltaics welcome the bright moment: Following President Xi’s emphasis on the “dual carbon” goal at the 75th UN General Assembly, in October 2021, the Central Office and the State Office have successively issued work opinions on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. The action plan proposes to comprehensively promote the large-scale development and high-quality development of wind power and solar power. Driven by national policies, my country’s coastal provinces actively responded to the Party Central Committee’s goal of achieving “dual carbon” and began to focus on the development of the marine photovoltaic industry one after another.
Land resources limit the development of photovoltaics in coastal areas, and Shandong Province is at the forefront of the country in the development and construction of offshore photovoltaics: “Shandong Province’s 2022 “Stability and Progress” High-quality Development Policy List (Second Batch) released in April 2022 It is clearly proposed that the sea area use fee reduction (no more than 20%) for offshore photovoltaic projects and financial subsidies for offshore floating photovoltaic power plants (2022-2025 will be subsidized at 1/0.8/0.6/0.4 yuan per watt respectively), July 2022 The “Shandong Province Offshore Photovoltaic Construction Project Action Plan” issued in January clearly pointed out that the total scale of offshore photovoltaic construction bases reached 42GW, of which the installed capacity of offshore photovoltaic sites was 23.6GW, and the rest were wind and solar. If the promotion effect of Shandong Province is better, it is expected that other coastal provinces may follow suit.
Offshore photovoltaics: the main battlefield of floating power plants. The offshore photovoltaic power station is divided into two types: pile-based and floating. At present, the pile-based type is the main type (tidal flat and intertidal zone). At present, the construction of offshore floating power station is still in the process of going from 0 to 1, and it is judged that there will be projects next year. landing. At present, the cost of offshore floating photovoltaic power plants is relatively high, but there is a large space for cost reduction in the future: 1) Refer to the cost reduction curve of inland water surface floating photovoltaic power plants. From a long-term perspective, the cost of floating floating bodies and anchoring systems at sea may be reduced by about 50%; 2) The increase in installed capacity brings scale effects, which reduces the overall cost per watt and improves IRR.
From the perspective of power generation efficiency, the power generation of floating photovoltaics is 5%-10% higher than that of land-based photovoltaics; offshore floating power stations have mature solutions to problems such as strong waves, wind, and microorganisms. Singapore has already implemented large-scale commercial projects; The core constraint of application is the return on investment factor. This year, Shandong Province gave a subsidy of 1 yuan per watt for offshore floating photovoltaic power plants (with a decline every year) to encourage their development. Without considering the subsidy scenario, the industry estimates that the IRR of the full investment of an offshore floating power station can reach 7%. As the cost decreases, there is still room for improvement in the rate of return. From a medium and long-term perspective, the floating type in the marine scene is more economical than the pile-based type, has a wider range of application scenarios, and has fewer environmental problems, or is the mainstream in the future.
Under optimistic assumptions, the market space for floating bodies and anchoring of marine photovoltaic power plants in Shandong Province alone may reach 27.2 billion yuan and 1.9 billion yuan: because the operating environment of the ocean is worse than that of inland waters, the requirements for related systems are higher, and the ocean floating type Photovoltaic power plants are in their infancy, so we assume that the cost of marine floating photovoltaics in 2022 is the same as the early cost of inland floating photovoltaics. It is estimated that the market space for floating bodies and anchoring systems of marine photovoltaic power plants in Shandong Province is 27.2 billion yuan and 1.9 billion yuan respectively. ; If other coastal provinces and cities follow up on the construction of floating photovoltaics, the corresponding market space will be further expanded.
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