It has been almost two months since the market rebounded.
What is the main thread of the rebound? Can you please understand?
It is normal to not understand, because the market presents all kinds of disorganized appearances every day, because you will think that the main line is the one that goes up.
The hard part in investing in stocks is in the present, because tomorrow is unknown, no one can know, what will rise tomorrow, but you can review and summarize the past, and seek opportunities to learn from history as a mirror.
The reversal day of this wave of the index is this day.
So you have to look at what happened on this day, what drove the market rebound?
It seems that there are many concepts and it is very chaotic. In fact, if you look at them carefully, these concepts are basically the track segments that were mainly promoted by the organization last year, new energy vehicles and their upstream and downstream, photovoltaics and their upstream and downstream, chips, military industry,
So what’s the thing that blows the horn of the rebound? Note that this is just a horn,
Just like the charge horn on the battlefield, the charge horn means to launch a charge, and the charge does not necessarily mean victory. Only in the movie, the horn blows all the crushing, and the charge may fail, but this kind of signal must be an important signal, You must pay attention to where you are.
Why is it said that it is difficult to speculate in stocks right now? The index reversed that day, but what was the most profitable at that time? It is a real estate stock, it will be a continuation of the profit-making effect, because there is no real estate stock in the sector’s rise that day,
But in fact, since the rebound, the trend of the real estate and infrastructure sectors is like this,
Isn’t it said that good stable growth depends on infrastructure? How to go so weak? Let’s talk later.
So let’s take a look at how the rebound trend of all sectors has gone since the rebound from No. 4-27?
(this year’s K-line chart)
If you look at the graphs above, you should be able to see the trend of these sectors at a glance. What is supporting the continuous rebound of the index?
This can actually be explained in a disguised way. Why did securities become so sluggish after a sudden surge, because this rebound has really risen too little so far, and the index continues to rise, and it always needs to be exposed to rain and dew.
As for when many people said a few days ago that Guangda would copy 2020, but I would find it difficult.
(No. 6-14)
This wave of Zhongtong buses has exceeded the expected number of connecting boards, which has brought many old demon stocks, such as Guizhou Gas, Sequential Development, Tellus A, and Eastern Communications. And Everbright Securities has also been one of the demon stocks in the past few years. I wrote before that securities and technology were the main lines of the big market in 19-20 years, so when the market came to 20-21 years, securities and technology were always I will keep thinking about it, and there will be echoes.
The main reason why I didn’t write it on the account was that I wrote an investment advisory two weeks ago to enter Douyin and do something big. At that time, I also gave some examples. It can be seen from normal reading comprehension. I am In describing this phenomenon I saw, but the person holding the case, good guy, said I hacked their ticket and sprayed me for days.
So when the brokerage sector has risen sharply, and they are all bragging about the coming market, how can I dare to write this because the rise is less and it is compensating for the rise. It is an unforgettable echo.
However, it has to be said that the daily limit of all major sectors has strong guiding significance.
We experienced an extremely bleak bear market in 2018. In that bear market, many new investors did not know it at all, and many old investors should have a deep memory. That year was a shrinking year.
The comprehensive monetary policy has been contracted, and many companies are no longer happy. There is no money. How can the stock market be good? Many stocks have no liquidity. Many stocks only have a trading volume of several hundred thousand a day. layoffs.
At the end of 2018, the monetary policy was reversed, and the market started to release water again, and the market was alive at once. It can be seen with the naked eye that there was a limit-up trend in securities stocks.
All securities stocks have the daily limit, the securities sector index has the daily limit,
A large number of institutions bought the Dragon Tiger list,
Why?
Monetary policy is reversed → the stock market is good after the release of water → the stock market trading volume is increased → the commission of securities companies is increased → the fundamentals are reversed from a loss-making stock to a profitable stock
(Not only will commissions increase, the market will improve, but all businesses of securities companies will improve, including proprietary trading, fund product commissions, issuance business, and various derivative businesses.)
This is why securities are always called bull market leading indicators.
In 2019, the index began to reverse and became stronger and stronger. When the performance growth rate was the fastest, it was the 20-year interim report window, and it was also one of the catalysts for the collective outbreak of the securities sector in the 20-year interim report window. The interim report was published in mid-July. It began to be disclosed one after another. The securities launch of that meeting was in late June, which was approaching the window period of the mid-term report, because securities would disclose operating data every month, the operating data that would be continuously disclosed, and the explosive growth performance report released in advance. Continue to strengthen the plate at that time.
What is the first rule of 9:00 in the organization group?
Look at the performance growth rate of securities stocks,
So we need to study, what is it that is carrying the current market
that other section
When the tuyere comes, the vibration will be larger.
This air outlet may be policy-related wind, news-related wind, social hot-spot wind, artificial wind, wind caused by sharp rises in individual stocks, and so on.
————————————–
I didn’t belittle any plate, and the subjective willingness to raise which plate was in it,
The above content is just because I suddenly thought of this, I got up from the bed temporarily and reviewed what I saw.
Where did the index rebound from, and in what form did the rebound rebound?
What was once blown away has become a cloud of the past,
What was once worthless but kept rising?
What is the meaning of recovery?
Seek the opportunity to learn the spring and autumn by taking history as a mirror.
When the market fell the worst at the end of April, I said that in May and June, institutions would start to form a group and regain the pricing power. Why do I say that? It was written at the time how I drew this conclusion from history.
When the rebound started in early May, most people were saying that the rebound should not participate casually.
Go directly to V, how to draw this conclusion from history. It was also written at the time.
And I saw the changes in the market at a very early time. Speculative funds shifted from pure themed speculation to track speculation.
Now look at which big demon stock has eaten up the premium of the track sector, the day of 5-13 is the first board
All of this is an opportunity to review and sum up later to seek the opportunity to learn the spring and autumn by taking history as a mirror.
(What does replay mean? The literal meaning of replay is a review of the board and a review of the market. It’s not a replay after the market, it’s a replay. For professional players, the whole 4 hours of the market is followed. , the coverage is wide enough, the insight is deep enough, and the memory is good, because it has been read for 4 hours in the intraday. Why does each stock rise, why is it deep, why is it fried, why is it diving? You can see it clearly, and you don’t need to read it after the market. For these people, what you really need to read after the market is some after-market data, in-depth research, the context of major sectors, and more tedious work. For For many office workers, or people who cannot watch the whole process for one reason or another, it is particularly important to review the market after the market.)
Back to the beginning of the article:
What is the main thread of the rebound? Can you please understand?
What rises more and continues to rise, what is the main line.
So all these things are seen in hindsight, how can we know in advance?
A sufficiently complex and robust model tells you to kill to the end (Written) + The possible future is derived from the past review based on history (Written) + Think about the most common sentence I said when I first rebounded in May, “What is going up? What are you chasing?” (repeatedly)
Finally, this article reviews the past two retrospective articles, reviewing what I have written before, some confirmations after that, and some data supplements.
If there are some new prospects for the future,
1: Then I think the order of this round of rebound has basically been determined, and we just need to keep looking at those sectors that are stronger and more sustainable later, just like what I did at this time last year. The energy revolution is summed up in the new energy of chaotic liquor, medical and beauty chips. In the second half of last year, only the energy revolution was on the rise, and the other sectors were gone. This requires constant tracking.
2: Every round of new order is established from the ruins. From a further perspective, if these supporting plates are stunned, other plates will stand up and directly take over, and will be new supports and continue to attack. The probability is extremely low, and there must be another round of collapses without everyone. This scene is the most popular thing that many air-singers have recently hoped to happen. Of course, every round of collapse will have a new round of order. new cycle. Of course, it is also necessary to clarify the difference between a stage callback and a crash.
3: This year’s market, fundamentals, and capital, the impact on the market is far less than the impact of confidence on the market. It has entered 2022. I hope that there will be fewer people who worship foreign countries.
This topic has 85 discussions in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/4104161666/222978227
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.